Pace of the Preakness (and who might be best-equipped to handle it)
DiscreetCat
Moderator
A friend of mine who's a pretty good handicapper was talking with me about the Derby/Preakness yesterday, and he seemed to think that California Chrome had an easy time of it in the Derby (thanks to a soft pace and a perfect trip), and he thinks it'll be different in the Preakness due to the presence of tougher early-speed types like Social Inclusion and Bayern. He thinks that California Chrome will get beat here, most likely by a closer after the above three wage their war up front.
I disagree. The reason i liked CC in the Derby is because he had already proven that he can handle a fast early pace, and he doesn't necessarily need to be on the lead. I thought the pace would be faster and i thought he would be a little farther back early, but aside from that he did what i expected he would. The main issue i thought would be his ability to handle the surface, something he ended up doing quite well, so that's another reason to suspect he'll run well again in Baltimore, i think.
I do agree with the impression that Social Inclusion may prove to be a very tough pace foe, and CC will probably need to work harder to get to the lead here than he did in the Derby. In fact, i really don't think there's much question about it. We talked about Social Inclusion quite a bit here during the early part of the year, and i think most will agree that he's probably in CC's neighborhood from a talent standpoint. He was kind of thrown to the wolves in the Wood Memorial, and he was also put in a very tough spot by that horrible post draw, so i'm willing to draw a line through that race (not that he ran poorly or anything). I just think he's still at a severe disadvantage from an experience standpoint, he hasn't really demonstrated that he's going to be comfortable with the Preakness distance (probably the opposite, in fact), and he hasn't looked at a horse like CC yet. All those things conspire to get him beat here, i would think, no matter how talented i think he might be. I would think that any prospective pace duel with CC would likely harm Social Inclusion much more than it would harm CC.
Many of those same points apply to Bayern, particularly the distance issue, i would think. Plus i just don't think he's as good as the other two. We also have the issue of a horse who was injured somewhat recently no running in his third race is just over a month (with the most recent race representing a cutback to one turn, rather than another stretchout like CC and Social Inclusion).
I disagree. The reason i liked CC in the Derby is because he had already proven that he can handle a fast early pace, and he doesn't necessarily need to be on the lead. I thought the pace would be faster and i thought he would be a little farther back early, but aside from that he did what i expected he would. The main issue i thought would be his ability to handle the surface, something he ended up doing quite well, so that's another reason to suspect he'll run well again in Baltimore, i think.
I do agree with the impression that Social Inclusion may prove to be a very tough pace foe, and CC will probably need to work harder to get to the lead here than he did in the Derby. In fact, i really don't think there's much question about it. We talked about Social Inclusion quite a bit here during the early part of the year, and i think most will agree that he's probably in CC's neighborhood from a talent standpoint. He was kind of thrown to the wolves in the Wood Memorial, and he was also put in a very tough spot by that horrible post draw, so i'm willing to draw a line through that race (not that he ran poorly or anything). I just think he's still at a severe disadvantage from an experience standpoint, he hasn't really demonstrated that he's going to be comfortable with the Preakness distance (probably the opposite, in fact), and he hasn't looked at a horse like CC yet. All those things conspire to get him beat here, i would think, no matter how talented i think he might be. I would think that any prospective pace duel with CC would likely harm Social Inclusion much more than it would harm CC.
Many of those same points apply to Bayern, particularly the distance issue, i would think. Plus i just don't think he's as good as the other two. We also have the issue of a horse who was injured somewhat recently no running in his third race is just over a month (with the most recent race representing a cutback to one turn, rather than another stretchout like CC and Social Inclusion).