Live 20/1 shot today, i think
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Race 6 @ Gulfstream, #11 Black Lab
Bear in mind that this horse is trained by George Arnold, who very rarely wins with firsters (0-for-17 over the last 13 months). But also be aware that this horse worked heads-up 3 straight times with Improv, who came out of those drills to run a very close second (less than a length) in a similar race a couple of weeks ago. He also worked wit Improve (a 4th time) since that race. No real reason this horse shouldn't run well today.
Be advised however, #14 Khozan (a million-dollar 2yp purchase for Pletcher) looks like a tough nut to crack. Worked heads-up twice in a row with Outlash, who won a similar race a couple of weekls ago (visible in the PP's of #6 Face Of Winner, who btw also looks quite tough here). Khozan also tied for the fastest furlong (9.4) at the Fasig-Tipton sale in March. Tough post, but there's a long run into the turn here, so not overly concerned about it.
Good luck today, guys...
Bear in mind that this horse is trained by George Arnold, who very rarely wins with firsters (0-for-17 over the last 13 months). But also be aware that this horse worked heads-up 3 straight times with Improv, who came out of those drills to run a very close second (less than a length) in a similar race a couple of weeks ago. He also worked wit Improve (a 4th time) since that race. No real reason this horse shouldn't run well today.
Be advised however, #14 Khozan (a million-dollar 2yp purchase for Pletcher) looks like a tough nut to crack. Worked heads-up twice in a row with Outlash, who won a similar race a couple of weekls ago (visible in the PP's of #6 Face Of Winner, who btw also looks quite tough here). Khozan also tied for the fastest furlong (9.4) at the Fasig-Tipton sale in March. Tough post, but there's a long run into the turn here, so not overly concerned about it.
Good luck today, guys...
Comments
Nice work DC and fb.
Quick note regarding Wisecracker. Going into today's race, he was coming off a heads-up drill with Pin Up. That one is entered tomorrow.
Just got done handicapping the race, and i'll definitely be on Pin Up tomorrow. As best as i can tell, the two Pletcher entrants (the top two favorites on the morning line, of course) don't represent his A-team. Could be wrong about that, but we shall see. Most interesting to me (aside from Pin Up) is the Mark Casse-trained Delightful Melody, who has been worked with a couple of older winners (who aren't in the best of form, but probably still a good sign).
Btw, Pin Up is a daughter of Tapit, out of the champion filly Cara Rafaela (making her a half-sister to Bernardini, nice). Also note that McLaughlin is using Leparoux, with whom he's hitting 54% from 13 mounts over the last 13 months (including 3-for-5 at Gulfstream).
That's hard work. Here I am with double vision trying to see the animals in Korea or whatever I'm betting...
Update on Khozan (from Pletcher):
Gulfstream Park News & Notes
01/25/2015
Khozan Lives up to Big-Time Pedigree in Saturdays Maiden Score
Wilkes Anticipates Next Step for Gorgeous Bird
Good News for Wildcat Red
HALLANDALE BEACH, FL - Al Shaqab Racings Khozan set the tone for Saturdays sensational stakes action with a dazzling maiden score that lived up to a big-time pedigree.
A half-brother to three-time Eclipse champion and two-time Breeders Cup Ladies Classic (Distaff) winner Royal Delta, the 3-year-old son of Distorted Humor registered an eye-catching 3 ¾-length victory that was awarded a 102 Beyer Speed Figure in Saturdays sixth race, which was followed by five stakes, including the $400,000 Lambholm South Holy Bull (G2).
Khozan was purchased with a $1 million winning bid at the Fasig-Tipton Florida 2-year-olds in training sale last March.
"We expected a good performance. Hed been training well. A horse like that with a big-time pedigree you have high hopes for, Trainer Todd Pletcher said. We felt positive coming into this race off his last few works, but youre always looking forward to getting them started and seeing how they can do.
Khozan had to break from the far-outside post against 13 rivals, including highly regarded Kiaran McLaughlin-trained Wisecracker, but was able to attain solid stalking position along the backstretch before making a sweeping move toward the leader under jockey Javier Castellano on the turn. Wisecracker, a first-time starter ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., got the jump on Khozan, but the Pletcher-trained 9-5 favorite made a powerful run in the stretch to draw off to a most promising maiden victory. Khozan ran seven furlongs in 1:23 63.
I think the logical move is to come back in an allowance race going longer and go from there, Pletcher said.
The 11-time defending Champions Meet training titlist said patience paid off with Khozans thoroughly professional victory.
He had some baby stuff at 2, and he has a pedigree that suggests he was going to get better as he got older. We just kind of took our time, Pletcher said. Al Shaqab is very patient. They bought a nice horse and they were in no rush with him, so we just kind of waited until he told us he was ready. He showed us it was the right time after his last couple works. He showed up and ran up to expectations.
Does Pletcher think Khozan can play catch-up in time to make it to Louisville, Ky. on the first Saturday in May?
Its January 24 and he just made his first start that would be against him a little bit, Pletcher said. Well let him guide us in the right direction.
Vandalize is entered tomorrow @ Gulfstream.
Fasig-Tipton | Fasig-Tipton TV
Nice effort by Vandalize today. Missed by about a length @ 9/1.
Pin Up is entered back tomorrow (and the second time in a row she's been entered the day after Wisecracker; interesting). Might be worth a look here @ 10/1 ml. I just watched the replay of her disappointing debut race, and she did make a decent little run during the middle part of the race, so i don't think she's completely hopeless here. Couldn't really make out anything during the early part of the race that caused her to lose so much ground though. Mike Welsch is claiming she got shuffled back, and i didn't really see that (not anything obvious), but i never got to look at the head-on, so i guess it's possible.
Btw, regarding that workout with Wisecracker (who would've been a heavy favorite today if they hadn't cancelled the remainder of the card), Pin Up came out of her race to work a best-of-38 bullet in 47 2/5 seconds (encouraging, obviously), while Wisecracker posted a five-furlong drill in 1:01 flat that very same day. So it's possible (i guess) that they worked together there as well.
Btw FB, i'd love to see a report on Pin Up if you've got one.
This is of course assuming that they actually run the card tomorrow. Speaking of which, i think it's worth noting that Pin Up's mom (Cara Rafaela) was a bit of a mud lark if i remember correctly, so a sloppy or muddy track might possibly be to Pin Up's advantage. I wouldn't be upset if the track comes up wet.
Feb. 22 – Was going very easily through total
maintenance splits of 25.60, 52.80, and out
1:07.40. RATING: C+
Feb. 15 – Inadvertently broke five lengths behind
Rum Point and was just going easily finishing a
length back in a decent half-mile clocking. RATING:
B-
Thanks FB.