American Pharaoh
DiscreetCat
Moderator
The horse looked dynamite. Might even be the most impressive-looking Derby prep i've ever seen.
Perhaps as important as anything, he showed that he was able to rate very kindly, though a skeptic might point out that he was sitting way out in the open (in a clear second), right behind an overmatched rival that was going much too fast early. That being said, I absolutely loved (well, really hated) the way that he just opened up at will on Mr. Z, who despite all his faults is still a pretty decent horse. Never was even slightly asked the whole way down the stretch, and definitely finished up in racehorse time (though i think it's been proven in the past that the Ark Derby generally goes pretty fast late, due to a slight downward slope, i think).
One thing that'll be interesting to see in the days leading up to the race is this: As much as the horse was already being hyped before, how much now? It's still a 20-horse clusterfuck where anything can happen, as i'm sure you're all well aware. I'm not sure any horse deserves to be any lower than 7/2 or 4/1, no matter how imposing they might be.
Much as i hate to say it, i think AP will be a deserving favorite. Perhaps the most interesting aspect of this race will be what happens when a real foe comes to challenge American Pharaoh, be it Dortmund or Firing Line or Carpe Diem or perhaps even Mubtaahij. He also may be forced to extricate himself from a tight spot or two, something he has zero experience in right now (which might potentially be his downfall?). Interesting race, to be sure.
Perhaps as important as anything, he showed that he was able to rate very kindly, though a skeptic might point out that he was sitting way out in the open (in a clear second), right behind an overmatched rival that was going much too fast early. That being said, I absolutely loved (well, really hated) the way that he just opened up at will on Mr. Z, who despite all his faults is still a pretty decent horse. Never was even slightly asked the whole way down the stretch, and definitely finished up in racehorse time (though i think it's been proven in the past that the Ark Derby generally goes pretty fast late, due to a slight downward slope, i think).
One thing that'll be interesting to see in the days leading up to the race is this: As much as the horse was already being hyped before, how much now? It's still a 20-horse clusterfuck where anything can happen, as i'm sure you're all well aware. I'm not sure any horse deserves to be any lower than 7/2 or 4/1, no matter how imposing they might be.
Much as i hate to say it, i think AP will be a deserving favorite. Perhaps the most interesting aspect of this race will be what happens when a real foe comes to challenge American Pharaoh, be it Dortmund or Firing Line or Carpe Diem or perhaps even Mubtaahij. He also may be forced to extricate himself from a tight spot or two, something he has zero experience in right now (which might potentially be his downfall?). Interesting race, to be sure.
Comments
I'll give you all the 5/2 you want this week. Horse must start for action.
All that being said, 2/1 or 3/2 is an awfully short price in the Derby, especially when you take into account the quality of this year's field. Could happen; it wouldn't be too big a shock i guess...
I"ll still give you 5/2, but great point about that filthy camel jockey cocksucker... Either way me and Nate are gonna bet Mujah-whatever at his surely inflated price.
7422 KEEN ICE 150/1 35/1
7650 DORTMUND 150/1 4/1
7382 FRAMMENTO 250/1 40/1
[*]7305 AMERICAN PHAROAH 40/1 3/1:zzz:
7705 MADEFROMLUCKY 200/1 50/1
7541 UPSTART 100/1 12/1 7514 STANFORD 200/1 50/1
7736 MUBTAAHIJ 200/1 12/1 7758 TENCENDUR 300/1 60/1
7722 MATERIALITY 300/1 14/1 7619 OCHO OCHO OCHO 200/1 60/1
7383 FROSTED 150/1 14/1 7447 MR. Z 100/1 60/1
7645 FIRING LINE 200/1 15/1 7319 BOLD CONQUEST 100/1 75/1
7415 INTERNATIONAL STAR 175/1 15/1 7620 PAIN AND MISERY 250/1 150/1
7368 EL KABEIR 65/1 22/1 7377 FIRESPIKE 100/1 150/1
7462 ONE LUCKY DANE 225/1 25/1 7611 METABOSS 150/1 150/1
7375 FAR RIGHT 175/1 30/1 7652 ROCK SHANDY 200/1 225/1
7649 WAR STORY 275/1 30/1 7526 THE TRUTH OR ELSE 150/1 250/1
7682 ITSAKNOCKOUT 125/1 30/1 7727 ST JOE BAY 300/1 250/1
7712 BOLO 175/1 30/1 7670 TASK FROM GLORY 300/1 250/1
I watched all the of Muhjahuhhhdin replays again and I'm not sure he's the best, but he certainly gets stronger as the race gets longer....
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/u64720/20150426%20Barn%20Notes.pdf
"Fairbanks Futurity"
this past year?
Or was it the "Anchorage Allowance"
Andy Harrington's Derby notes say AP is the best since Sunday Silence.
He also said Dormund and Firing Line look amazing as well - both are improving.