Skymaster are your pants wet!!!
fbwinners
Senior Member
Your boy just put on a show at Churchill, I've never seen a horse work that smooth or quick, looked like a 1 minute and change and the gallop out!!! He's a very gifted runner and I hope he gets a clean trip to see what he can really do down the lane!!
Comments
I just saw the same. Never got out of a gallop, to me, and is so effortless in his movement. What a beautiful mover. Impressive to say the least.
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/u64720/20150426%20Barn%20Notes.pdf
Very high praise ....
If you go back and watch all the replays from all the horses ( tedious I know ) but if you put the time and effort in it will become clear that AP leaves the gate and reaches a high speed quicker than any other horse in the race by far. It does not matter where he is drawn he is going to create seperation from himself and the rest of the field out of the gate so it does not really matter if there is 20 or 200 horses in the race they are all going to be looking at his tail in the very early stages.
Now a horse may quarter horse it and cause him to have to sit second like he did in the Arkansas Derby but that will only be a target for him. Even in the Arkansas Derby when he almost went to his knees out of the gate nobody caught it not even the track announcer because he is so athletic and does it so easy that he still created seperation a few jumps out of the gate .
Like Jerry Bailey said about Chrome creating his own luck it's the same for AP but to even a much greater degree than Chrome.
I am having a hard time envisioning a scenario that causes AP not to win not only the Kentucky Derby, but the Triple Crown ....
I love your passion and enthusiasm for AP! But look what happened to Chrome last year in the Belmont, inside post, stepped on from the break, then trapped inside by other riders. Then go watch Smarty Jones (My Favorite Horse) in the Belmont, the other jocks rode against Smarty as they did Chrome last year. I've watched all his races live and his replays over and over as well. I've also watched all the replays of all the PREPS numerous times. This years Preps were nothing to speak of as the best horse won each time! The only preps that were exciting were the ones between Firing Line and Dortmund, they battled their guts out down the lane on two occasions. The other preps were cruise control in April!! This Ky Derby looks very formful from my POV, like the years it ran Street Sense, Hard Spun, and Curlin! We can all look for that BOMB to come get a piece if their is a melt down, but the top tier horses IMO wont' back up down the lane this year as they have in the past!! This will be one year, many will have the SUPER and it might pay for $1.00 less than 3k if we don't get a bomb in the 2nd spot!! If AP,DORT,CD run 1-2 in any order it will pay peanuts!!
Off topic a bit, but if memory serves me correct, you were on a sports radio talk show last year of derby week. I pulled up the radio station online and listened. It was very informative. Are you doing the same thing this year?
You hit the nail on the head. Most of the prep races had the perceived best horse going in winning and doing it comfortably . All this crunch of numbers and angles and trends to find a bomb is really not the way to go this year and I am in total agreement with you on that.
For example ....
Wood Memorial - Frosted crushed El Kabier fair and square and El Kabier dominated the NY prep season up until the wood. Is there really any reason to consider any other horse but Frosted from the NY prep scene ?
Florida Derby - Upstart cruises in FOY and Holy Bull and turns Florida derby into a match race Materiality is there any reason to consider any other horses but these two from the southern Florida prep scene ?
Louisiana Derby - International Star won the LA derby and every other LA prep race .... Any reason to consider any horse but him from the LA prep circuit ?
Arkansas Derby - AP turned the Arkansas Derby and the Rebel into paid workouts ? Any reason to look anywhere else here ?
Blue Grass - The Bluegrass was dominated by a dialed down Carpe Diem . Any reason to look at any other horses out of this race ?
Santa Anita Derby - The California prep races were all won by Dortmund but Firing Line got real close not once but twice to Dortmund and dominated himself in the Sunland Derby so I guess they both deserve to be included in the conversation.
The bottom line. If your trying to put together a superfecta ticket your probably making it too complicated by trying to dig for a big bomber type ...
The superfecta will most likely be made up of some combination of the following horses , in no particular order ....
AP
Dortmund
Firing Line
Frosted
Carpe Diem
Upstart
Materiality
International Star
My guess is if he draws good he might get bet down a little to maybe around 5/2 but there is so much hype in a lot of these horses that I can't see AP going off much lower than that ...
I haven't heard from them this year, but if they call me I wouldn't mind helping them out again. Ill let you all know if it happens.
Oh boy. Listen man, i actually kinda like you, so please don't take any of this the wrong way... ANYTHING can happen in racing.
You should really sit back and learn a bit. American Pharaoh winning will be the worst thing that could happen for you at this point IMO... then you'll be back here like "told you so" about a fucking 2-1 shot. Everyone will be annoyed, and that will be it for you.... At least if he loses you can come back, say "oh well" and we can move forward.
That said....
You all know I'm not really huge on trainer comments, but Baffert has implied a few times that this is his best ever...His reaction after the BC scratch was very telling.
Just sayin...
WAR STORY
Loooch Racing Stables, Glenn Ellis and Christopher Dunns War Story jogged a mile and galloped a mile and a half under exercise rider Marvin Orantes after the morning renovation break.
He had a good day getting over the track, trainer Tom Amoss said. The most disappointing thing this morning was watching how good American Pharoah looked.
Casse had one too. Said the horse looked like the best horse in the race, but that anything can happen.
You know Ron?
10-4, I meet him for the 1st time at The Fairgrounds on La. Derby Day up in the suite and the paddock before the La. Derby. Does he frequent Vegas a lot, like Ron? Good Dude!