Kentucky Derby Fractional Charting

2daysrace2daysrace Senior Member
edited May 2015 in Horse Racing Forum
May 2, 2015 – Churchill Downs – Kentucky Derby – Race 11
Kentucky Derby Fractional Charting
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This years crop of 3 year olds entered into the Kentucky Derby looks to be a deep and talented bunch. Our team of handicappers has gone through all of the horses past performances and selected the one they feel is most representative to today’s race or in other words which past performance they feel the horse can reproduce in today’s race conditions. Using our proven par-time-by-class standard that takes into account the subtle differences among race tracks across the country, each selected past performance is adjusted to reflect how the horse should perform in today’s race. Looking at the charting to the right we see that Firing Line and Dortmund both top the charting. These two have raced prior where Firing Line just missed Dortmund in both Graded Stakes in So. Cal. However, Firing Line went on to win the Gr 3 Sunland Derby by 14 length March 22. He seems to have the talent and to be a factor and might offer decent value on the tote. Ocho Ocho Ocho drew the post and doesn’t appear that he’ll be in the lead causing him to get caught up in traffic early in the race and with a slower than average last fraction (LF) which is a horses closing speed, he may not have a chance. The favorite American Pharoah charts a close 4th but has the fastest last fraction and if he can get a good trip and be off the pace in the final stretch he could certainly take the win.
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