Free Race Analysis Churchill Downs May 2, Race 6
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To help you get a better idea of how to use Today's Racing Digest exclusive race sheets we have identified 2 key areas that may help you uncover hidden value, isolate contenders or identify false favorites.
In the header portion of each race sheet our handicappers have gone through all of the past performances for every horse running and identified the race that we feel that horse is most likely to repeat in today's race. Those past performances are then normalized to reflect today's race conditions. What that means is the speed figures (FIRE, CPR) listed in the header are the numbers we expect the horse to earn in today's race.
The yellow highlighted area called the Track Profile gives you an idea of what kind of running styles (e.g., frontrunners, pressers, etc.) have been winning at the races distance. We list the number of races included in our study (17, in this case), then list the type of running style and the win-percentage. For example, Frontrunners (F) have won 5.9% of the 17 races at this distance, Pace Pressers (P) have won 23.5%, MidPack Runners ("M") have won the most at 52.9% and Late Runners ("R") have won17.6% . The Digest race sheets give you the running style of each horse in the PER column so you can uncover which horses' running styles may or may not be a good fit for today's race.
The green highlighted area covers the Race level which is simply a number assigned to a certain type of race that represents its position relative to other races. By assigning a numerical value to a race it allows the handicapper (you) to easily discern the quality of one class of horses from another.
The Digest does this by designating a number, anywhere from 75 to 210, to each race. The higher the number, the stronger the race. For the most part, each class receives a number that remains stagnant. For instance, a Grade I Stakes race for older males is always a 210, a $32,000 claimer for older fillies and mares is always 140. (Three-year-old and two-year-old races earn higher RCLs as the year progresses, which reflect the maturation process.) Important! Five points equals one class level
In the RCL column (# 4) we provide you with the Digests RCL which is an initialism for Race Competition Level, which is the highest class level at which this horse has been competitive locally within the last 90 days. An x in this column indicates a horse hasnt been competitive at any level recently. This can be helpful in quickly determining if a horse has proven to have the ability to compete at this level in the past 90 days.
Download An Example of How to Use RCL
ANALYSIS: Conquest Typhoon has won two of his three turf routes and he rallied for 2nd in a Grade 3 Polytrack route at Turfway March 21. Smith strings along, there appears to be some pace to help set up his rally and his numbers are going the right way. 'Typhoon is the HF 15a. Divisidero was a troubled 3rd in start #2 in a grassy Grade 3 at Gulfstream March 7. Hernandez is back to ride and he shows five works since raced. He lacks experience, but he may be this good. Nun The Less tracked the leader and proved best vs. NW2 Allowance turf routers April 12. He tops the charting off that one, he makes his third start off the bench and another good effort could be on tap. A Lot was 2nd in a grassy Grade 3 Jan 3 and he easily handled NW1 Optional Claiming turf routers Feb 22. That win didn't earn much of a number, but his Jan 3 effort plots close. Granny's Kitten was a big winner in his debut vs. straight Maiden turf sprinters July 11. This seems an ambitious spot for start #2, but his connections are easy to like and he is bred to run long. Luck Of The Kitten set the pace and just missed in a Grade 3 off the bench April 15. He has finished in the Exacta in all five turf routes, but there appears to be plenty of pace to keep him honest and he could be breathing fire late.
CLOSERS: Fastest in the stretch in recent races at or near this distance have been: Luck Of The Kitten and Conquest Typhoon :28.9 - Indianaughty :29.2
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