Sunday, July 19 Del Mar Race 7: Free Play of the Day
2daysrace
Senior Member
ANALYSIS: The Republicans were badgering (would you prefer “questioning”?) Janet Yellen about Fed Policy (and subpoenas, too) this week. One of their complaints was that Fed Policy was too obtuse. They wanted it tied to a single number, like the inflation index. Our Fractional Charting is a bit like the inflation index. It’s a single way of looking at a race by taking a recent race for each horse and comparing them. Turnover plots on top off of his July 4 comeback win at Del Mar. He is projected to go wire-to-wire while holding returnee Top Fortitude at bay. Janet Yellen insisted on looking at more than a single factor, though, and the handicapper may want to dig a little deeper, too (though the Charting is a valuable tool). Turnover was earning 130ish Final Time Ratings here last year, but popped with a 152 in his return. The 2-3 finishers in that July 4 affair saw their numbers jump, too. Maybe everybody was better or maybe the race was rated five or six lengths too fast. So, do you automatically shift to ‘Fortitude? Maybe. He’s been off for over a year, but did win a soph Stakes in 2014 and has won without recency. He’s trained decently and should be in the 6/1 range for his return. The HF 15a’s land on Cherubim and invader Guns Loaded, instead. The former ran well in two comeback starts this spring, most recently when he just failed to last vs. this kind June 18. ‘Loaded won two mid-level Allowance races in the Midwest this spring and his balanced attack should play well in this speed-laden lineup.
CLOSERS: Fastest in the stretch in recent races at or near this distance have been: Top Fortitude :30.1 – Guns Loaded :30.4 – Snuggley Bear :31.2
The top two horses are separated by 1/2 length in the Fractional Charting, but both have different running styles. Turnover has good early speed while Top Fortitude likes to race from midpack. If today’s track is playing towards speed horses, then Turnover might have the advantage. If the track is playing towards closers, then Top Fortitude might be the play.
Click here for free top 10 angles for Del Mar
Comments
2 /4,5,6 Ex key