Saratoga Sunday, July 26 Race 10 Feature of the Day

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Keen Pauline tops the Fractional Charting and also has the fastest last fraction off her win in a Grade 2 at Pimlico May 15. However, a closer look at her projected race suggests she might be vulnerable today.

‘Pauline set the pace in her win May 15, but prior to that she was a midpack runner. If you compare her early fractions that day to par time for the level today, they are much slower and there are three others projected to be faster than her early in the Fractional Charting.

While a case can be made for her as her speed figures are going upward and top jockey Castellano is back to ride, we think this effort was a bit of a fluke and she needs to prove she can handle a faster pace and finish the way she did last time out.

As a handicapper, if you see a frontrunner that has one of the top two fastest closing fractions in the Charting, be suspicious and look closer at that runner to see what kind of fractions were set and compare them to others along with the par time for today’s level. It could be that the horse is vulnerable against today’s field.

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