Thursday, Aug 6 Arlington Race 4

2daysrace

ANALYSIS: The conditions for these State-bred Allowance races are almost as jacked up as those for conditioned $5,000 claimers. This looks like a bottom-level Allowance, but then you have a horse like Fleet Encounter who has won 14 times, including a mid-level Allowance on turf at Churchill May 14 and a Optional $50,000 claimers when not in for the tag at Indiana June 23. We’re not really sure how she qualifies, but she’s the one to beat and will get the HF 15a. Three Cat Rules crushed conditioned $16,000 claimers June 14 and beat $18,000 claimers July 26. She tops the charting and looks like a contender. Lovely Island finished 2nd in a State-bred Stake routing in her first try as a winner. She could be dangerous at this level even though it’s her first sprint. CLOSERS: Fastest in the stretch in recent races at or near this distance have been: Three Cat Rules, Realta Ean :25.0 – Three Tootsies :25.1 -Fleet Encounter :25.2

This type of scenario doesn’t happen very often, but when it does it is best to give that horse a long look. Realta Ean tops the charting at the first call in 23.2. She also has the fastest last fraction of 25.0 which suggests she is fast both early and late. Even a frontrunner with the second or even the third fastest last fraction merits consideration. Like the Digest analysts would say: “Has good lick and good stick.”

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