Interesting HRN article re AP
Makers
Senior Member
American Pharoah - How Fast Is He Really, and How Fast Can He Go?
Triple Crown winner American Pharoah is the unquestioned king of the three-year-old malesthe boys of the thoroughbred crop. Questions remain, however:
How fast is he?
Where does he stack up historically?
How will he handle older horses if he runs in the Breeders Cup Classic when attempting to achieve this first grand slam of the Breeders Cup era?
TimeformUS has Speed Figures for horses back to the 2004 season and will use that timeframe to evaluate these questions.
On Sunday, American Pharoah won the Grade 1 Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park in his first race since the Triple Crown with ridiculous ease. He was wrapped up by jockey Victor Espinoza with a furlong to go and geared down in the last sixteenth of a mile. Despite this, he still ran an impressive 131 TimeformUS Speed Figure (Our Speed Figures are on the Timeform Global Rating Scale). It is the fastest race this year by any horse in North America. One can only wonder what he could have done if asked to run in the stretch, or at a minimum was even just allowed to run on his own. Our partner in the United Kingdom, Timeform (aka The Mothership), has assigned the horse a Master Rating of 136, indicating they believe he can run significantly better. It is tough to make an argument against that opinion when viewing the race.
The 131 TimeformUS Speed Figure stacks up nicely when compared to other recent three-year-old seasons. The table below lists the three-year-old Eclipse Award winners and how fast each ran during that season. Both the top rating and the average of the best three TimeformUS Speed Figures are displayed. Keep in mind that this is for each horses entire three-year-old season but does not include Speed Figures from subsequent years. Rachel Alexandra was the only filly that was comparable to the males and was included for that reason. Obviously, American Pharoahs season is not yet complete as of this writing and subject to change. It is assumed he will win the Eclipse Award for this season.
At midsummer, American Pharoah is already above average on both top TimeformUS Speed Figure and the average of the best three. He has done this despite not being asked to run much late in many of his races (the Kentucky Derby: a notable exception). As of now there are horses that ran faster as three-year-olds, namely Rachel Alexandra, Curlin, and Summer Bird. He does appear to have the potential to better those horses ratings in the future. It remains to be seen if he will.
That future is scheduled to include the Breeders Cup Classic as his last race of the season and in all likelihood his racing career. He will face older horses that day in addition to some of his peers and the competition will be tougher than he has ever faced. There is also the possibility of shippers from overseas coming for the race adding to the difficulty. This is what it has taken to win the Breeders Cup Classic in previous seasons:
Once again, American Pharoah has already run faster than the average. He has topped all but four winners of the Classic in the past 11 years on speed. A challenger has yet to emerge this year in the same class as Ghostzapper, Zenyatta, or Curlin. Outside of American Pharoah, the fastest 2015 TimeformUS Speed Figures in dirt routes at nine furlongs or longer belong to Tonalist and Effinexboth 126. The five-point gap represents about four lengths and in reality it is probably more. American Pharoah will win the race this year if he maintains his current form.
His accomplishments speak for themselves. American Pharoah is a fabulous horse that has run fast and won with ease. He swept the Triple Crown. None of the three-year-olds since 2004 have done that, but some have run faster. How fast can this horse run? Racing fans the world over will be hoping we get to find out. The Breeders Cup Classic will provide the opportunity to become not just the Boy King, but a legend.
TimeformUS Chief Figure Maker, Craig Milkowski, pulled these great stats to help put American Pharoah's speed and talent into perspective.
Triple Crown winner American Pharoah is the unquestioned king of the three-year-old malesthe boys of the thoroughbred crop. Questions remain, however:
How fast is he?
Where does he stack up historically?
How will he handle older horses if he runs in the Breeders Cup Classic when attempting to achieve this first grand slam of the Breeders Cup era?
TimeformUS has Speed Figures for horses back to the 2004 season and will use that timeframe to evaluate these questions.
On Sunday, American Pharoah won the Grade 1 Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park in his first race since the Triple Crown with ridiculous ease. He was wrapped up by jockey Victor Espinoza with a furlong to go and geared down in the last sixteenth of a mile. Despite this, he still ran an impressive 131 TimeformUS Speed Figure (Our Speed Figures are on the Timeform Global Rating Scale). It is the fastest race this year by any horse in North America. One can only wonder what he could have done if asked to run in the stretch, or at a minimum was even just allowed to run on his own. Our partner in the United Kingdom, Timeform (aka The Mothership), has assigned the horse a Master Rating of 136, indicating they believe he can run significantly better. It is tough to make an argument against that opinion when viewing the race.
The 131 TimeformUS Speed Figure stacks up nicely when compared to other recent three-year-old seasons. The table below lists the three-year-old Eclipse Award winners and how fast each ran during that season. Both the top rating and the average of the best three TimeformUS Speed Figures are displayed. Keep in mind that this is for each horses entire three-year-old season but does not include Speed Figures from subsequent years. Rachel Alexandra was the only filly that was comparable to the males and was included for that reason. Obviously, American Pharoahs season is not yet complete as of this writing and subject to change. It is assumed he will win the Eclipse Award for this season.
At midsummer, American Pharoah is already above average on both top TimeformUS Speed Figure and the average of the best three. He has done this despite not being asked to run much late in many of his races (the Kentucky Derby: a notable exception). As of now there are horses that ran faster as three-year-olds, namely Rachel Alexandra, Curlin, and Summer Bird. He does appear to have the potential to better those horses ratings in the future. It remains to be seen if he will.
That future is scheduled to include the Breeders Cup Classic as his last race of the season and in all likelihood his racing career. He will face older horses that day in addition to some of his peers and the competition will be tougher than he has ever faced. There is also the possibility of shippers from overseas coming for the race adding to the difficulty. This is what it has taken to win the Breeders Cup Classic in previous seasons:
Once again, American Pharoah has already run faster than the average. He has topped all but four winners of the Classic in the past 11 years on speed. A challenger has yet to emerge this year in the same class as Ghostzapper, Zenyatta, or Curlin. Outside of American Pharoah, the fastest 2015 TimeformUS Speed Figures in dirt routes at nine furlongs or longer belong to Tonalist and Effinexboth 126. The five-point gap represents about four lengths and in reality it is probably more. American Pharoah will win the race this year if he maintains his current form.
His accomplishments speak for themselves. American Pharoah is a fabulous horse that has run fast and won with ease. He swept the Triple Crown. None of the three-year-olds since 2004 have done that, but some have run faster. How fast can this horse run? Racing fans the world over will be hoping we get to find out. The Breeders Cup Classic will provide the opportunity to become not just the Boy King, but a legend.
TimeformUS Chief Figure Maker, Craig Milkowski, pulled these great stats to help put American Pharoah's speed and talent into perspective.