Saturday, September 5 Race 7 Kentucky Downs
2daysrace
Senior Member
ANALYSIS: Juvenile Stakes are a tricky proposition, as the youngsters are eligible to move forward or regress from race to race. Seaside Schiller won her debut at Belmont Park July 16 and looked sharp stalking the pace and kicking away late. Simple Surprise began her career with back-to-backs wins, most recently when switched to the grass Aug 19. He relaxed better to stalk the pace under Castellano and may be underrated on paper. Lillys Dream rallied from mid-pack debuting in an Ellis Park miler Aug 2. Shes bred in spades for the grass and this turn back in distance may serve her very well. These three would appear the right fillies and one of them should offer some betting value. CLOSERS: Fastest in the stretch in recent races at or near this distance have been: Seaside Schiller :37.8 Apple Down Under :38.1 Tia Flor :38.4
Moment Is Right plots as setting the pace and she loses the race by one length per the charting. If she can get a breather, though, she could prove tough to catch. Seaside Schiller rallies for the win with a fastest last fraction of 37.8. Tia Flor is only a 1/2 length back in 2nd and she could have first run before Moment Is Right and most of the others.
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