Toutdom never ceases to amaze me...
Makers
Senior Member
DR BOB STOLL
Those on Text are aware that I released the opposite side of my Oklahoma 2-Star as a 1-Star on Texas Tech at +14 or more ONLY. Then I released Oklahoma at -13 1/2 for 3-Stars.
I realize it's confusing but I have got to find a way to keep these guys from automatically moving the line instantly on my plays and this could help down the line. I realize there may be people that got Texas Tech at +14 for 1-Star and maybe didn't get -13 1/2 or -14 coming back the other way for 3-Stars but I figure if you can get down quick enough to get the first bet in then you are likely to be quick enough to get the real bet in at a better line.
That's also why I indicated +14 or more ONLY in the first text, so people wouldn't bet Texas Tech at 13.5 when I knew I was coming back with Oklahoma.
I know some of you may hate this idea but these line moves are killing my business and hurting my current clients and if I can find a way to make them hesitate on instantly moving the line then I'm willing to try it.
Oklahoma is a 2-Star Best Bet at -14 or less and 1-Star up to -16 if you didn't follow along with the Texts today. Hopefully, those that did use the text service got +14 for 1-Star one way and -13.5 for 3-Stars the other way, which was the intent. Obviously, I'm open to feedback on this move. Plus, as you may notice this line has settle at -14.5, which is also a lot better than what it might have moved to had I simply texted out Oklahoma -14 for 2-Stars.
I also released tonight's ULL at Ark State Under 61 as a Strong Opinion under at 59 or higher.
Those on Text are aware that I released the opposite side of my Oklahoma 2-Star as a 1-Star on Texas Tech at +14 or more ONLY. Then I released Oklahoma at -13 1/2 for 3-Stars.
I realize it's confusing but I have got to find a way to keep these guys from automatically moving the line instantly on my plays and this could help down the line. I realize there may be people that got Texas Tech at +14 for 1-Star and maybe didn't get -13 1/2 or -14 coming back the other way for 3-Stars but I figure if you can get down quick enough to get the first bet in then you are likely to be quick enough to get the real bet in at a better line.
That's also why I indicated +14 or more ONLY in the first text, so people wouldn't bet Texas Tech at 13.5 when I knew I was coming back with Oklahoma.
I know some of you may hate this idea but these line moves are killing my business and hurting my current clients and if I can find a way to make them hesitate on instantly moving the line then I'm willing to try it.
Oklahoma is a 2-Star Best Bet at -14 or less and 1-Star up to -16 if you didn't follow along with the Texts today. Hopefully, those that did use the text service got +14 for 1-Star one way and -13.5 for 3-Stars the other way, which was the intent. Obviously, I'm open to feedback on this move. Plus, as you may notice this line has settle at -14.5, which is also a lot better than what it might have moved to had I simply texted out Oklahoma -14 for 2-Stars.
I also released tonight's ULL at Ark State Under 61 as a Strong Opinion under at 59 or higher.
Comments
Those on Text are aware that I released the opposite side of my (team edited out) 2-Star as a 1-Star on (team edited out) +XX or more ONLY. Then I released (team edited out) at -XX for 3-Stars.
I realize it's confusing but I have got to find a way to keep these guys from automatically moving the line instantly on my plays and this could help down the line. I realize there may be people that got (team edited out) at +XX for 1-Star and maybe didn't get -XX or -XX coming back the other way for 3-Stars but I figure if you can get down quick enough to get the first bet in then you are likely to be quick enough to get the real bet in at a better line.
That's also why I indicated +XX or more ONLY in the first text, so people wouldn't bet (team edited out) at +XX when I knew I was coming back with (team edited out).
I know some of you may hate this idea but these line moves are killing my business and hurting my current clients and if I can find a way to make them hesitate on instantly moving the line then I'm willing to try it.
(team edited out) is a 2-Star Best Bet at -XXor less and 1-Star up to -XX if you didn't follow along with the Texts today. Hopefully, those that did use the text service got +XX for 1-Star one way and -XX for 3-Stars the other way, which was the intent. Obviously, I'm open to feedback on this move. Plus, as you may notice this line has settle at -XX, which is also a lot better than what it might have moved to had I simply texted out (team edited out) -XX for 2-Stars.
I was just 4-7 on my week 7 Best Bets and an even worse 6-15 on a Star Basis for -10.5 Stars while Strong Opinions were 3-2 (3-1 sides and 0-1 on totals), including a couple I added on Saturday. Two weeks ago things were great, now they suck, and hopefully two weeks from now things will be fine. Thats the way sports betting can be and Ive certainly been through worse streaks than this in my 28 year career and have more than survived those.
Ill survive this one too. Ive dug a big hole and I may not get back to even for the season but Im very likely to win going forward, which is really all that matters at this point. The last two weeks happened and its the rest of the season that now concerns me - and Im very confident I will be profitable over the remainder of the season.
I once had a 4-32 run in basketball over a 2 week span and then I went 35-6 the following 2 weeks and ended that season with a solid profit. In 2005 I was +31.3 Stars of profit in basketball in late February then had a 3 week run of 64-130-4 on a Star Basis for -79.0 Stars and Im sure I said the same thing then that Im saying now (that Im likely to be profitable from this point forward). The rest of the season I was 85-42-2 on Stars and while I ended that season at just 52.0% and -8.9 Stars I then had a 59% combined NFL and College Football season later that year and then won 112.0 Stars on 58% winners the next basketball season. So, as bad as it looks these last two weeks I have been through worse bouts of negative variance and came back to win.
While the bad results in week 6 had a lot to do with bad luck (2 losses due to fumble return touchdowns and 0-3 on close games) this past week was simply a losing week that I deserved, as I had no lucky wins or unlucky losses and was 2-2 on toss-up games (see game by game recap below). There are weeks when the math simply doesnt work but those are generally isolated weeks and not an indication that anything is wrong with my math model.
In fact, whats odd about this year is that my math model is 56.5% picking every game against the spread (since week 4 when it starts) and the math plays (those with a 56% chance of covering or more based solely on the math) are a solid 42-33-1 (56%) for the season. I mentioned last week that the situational analysis was keeping me off a lot of math plays and those math plays were winning while the ones I decided to play as Best Bets were not.
That wasnt so much the case this past week, as the math had a down week and I would have still lost had I gone with every math play. In fact, the situations kept me off some math play losers this week. Where the math hasnt worked so far this season is picking totals (just 46% on all games), so Im going to limit the number of totals I play going forward and will not play any at all after week 9 (historically the math has no edge in totals from week 10 on).
The sides actually havent been that bad, although they certainly should be better given how well the math model has worked. My Best Bets sides are 15-15-1 and the Strong Opinion sides are 14-11 while the Best Bet totals are just 7-11 and Strong Opinion totals are 4-7. Things should improve if I focus all of my attention on sides and play only what I think are the very best totals. If the math model keeps working the way it has up to this point then the winners will come. Its pretty random that the math plays have been good overall picking sides and I just happened to have been on the batch of 30 that is 50%.