To whom it may concern
duffmiver3
Member
Araqeel is entered
Today at Gulfstream
Race 7
Today at Gulfstream
Race 7
duffmiver3
Member
Comments
Araqeel was one of the most talented young turf horses i saw last year (based on his debut). He then shipped up to Keeneland for an allowance race, where he flopped badly. At the time, i figured that he simply didn't like the yielding turf course (which might've been true), but apparently he injured himself during the running of the race, because he disappeared thereafter and didn't return until today (almost a year later).
Okay, so far so good, as far as i was concerned. Looked fantastic in his first race, and second race was a complete throwout. And obviously, they were very patient in bringing him back. Finally hit the worktab around the beginning of this year, so he's been in training roughly 2 months now. I knew he was due to be entered in a race very soon, and here he is. Great....but this is where the good news stopped.
Here are my problems. First off, Chad Brown's main rider (Castellano) is jumping ship to ride the 5/2 ml favorite Amigo (for Ronny Werner, of all people). That strikes me as being an extremely negative sign, especially considering the talent that Araqeel had shown (under Castellano) in his debut. However, it is possible that Castellano may have already been committed to ride Amigo (before he knew that Araqeel would be entered here). So, while extremely negative, it may not necessarily mean anything. That being said though, in the absence of Castellano, Chad Brown is reaching for Saez, who has only ridden 5 horses for Brown over the last 14 months (with zero winners). It seems that Brown would've opted for someone he's had more success with, if in fact Araqeel was well-regarded today (unless maybe he's looking for a price?). Just not a good situation, major red flags here.
Going further, i also noticed (upon looking at the PP's) that in the 2 months Araqeel has been back on the worktab, he has yet to work farther than 4 furlongs. That seems very odd. Though again, it doesn't necessarily mean anything.
Lastly, Chad Brown tends to work his top-flight horses in company, at least part of the time. Araqeel has not worked with anyone (other than a useless 0-for-2 maiden) over the last month. So more negativity here, although once again, it doesn't necessarily mean anything.
Bottom line, i just don't have much confidence in Araqeel today. That being said, i DO plan to bet him, because his prior talent level would make him a standout in this field, and that talernt leve l was shown as an early-season 3yo, whereas he should now be a bigger, faster, fully-grown 4yo colt. And the 9/2 ml price is simply too sweet to pass up on a horse who could potentially trounce the field.
So altogether, i think he's a reasonable play today (perhaps even if he gets bet down, because that might signal that he's indeed healthy and ready to go), but i'm just not sure what to expect. He could either look great or terrible. Not sure.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FtclnIBqWk
I will play against today.
With the way the turf course is playing today and the field we have today, my interest lies with 10 Flatlined.
Johnny V up, yet to finish out of the money on Turf. Reasonable draw here. Raced very well with Johnny up last start. Followed it up with a good 4F "stretch" on the 20th.