Two plays for Saturday @ Saratoga (7/30)
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Saratoga - Race 1
#6 Impressive Edge (8/1 ml)
Second-time starter for Asmussen comes in off a terrible debut performance, but several things catch the eye here. First off, note this guy got bet down to 4/5 odds in that race. That might not mean a whole lot, considering it was just a 6-horse field, and Asmussen firsters tend to get bet pretty hard @ Churchill anyway, but it's still a generally positive sign. Secondly, the race came over a sloppy track, so you can rightfully just throw it out and give him a clean slate on dry land. Thirdly, Asmussen has a long history at this meet of doing well with second-time starters shipping in from Churchill. So here's where it gets more interesting - in 2 of his last 3 drills, he outworked an unraced barnmate (one of those being Reckling, who is entered in Race 3 today). In the other drill (dated 7/19), he and Reckling worked heads-up in a team drill with the 3yo Gettysburg, who hasn't been winning lately, but has been entered in races like the Arkansas Derby and Belmont Stakes. Sure seems like there's more here than meets the eye, so at the big morning line price of 8/1, i think he's worth a shot. Incidentally, Geroux gets the call here, and it looks like he's 1-for-1 with Asmussen at this meet.
Saratoga - Race 3
#1 Kahramani (9/2 ml)
2yo firster for Pletcher worked heads-up from the gate on 7/7 with One Liner, who came out of that drill to win his debut here on opening weekend. Following that, in the 7/16 drill it appears that Kahramani may have outworked barnmate Super Surprise (looks that way but i can't confirm), who also won on opening weekend, taking an allowance race off a lengthy layoff after having won a stakes @ Belmont in her prior start last October. Also of note, both those winners had Velazquez in the irons, and here he is again. Possibly a bad rail draw here, but if he's got the speed to shoot out to the front (let's hope so), it could work out fine. Note: i read somewhere a few weeks ago that Barclay Tagg had a full brother to Tale of Ekati that's supposed to be pretty good, and that would be #3 Tale of Silence (3/1 ml). Looks like word may be out because he's listed as the favorite here (not counting the other Pletcher horse on the AE list). Whatever, if that one gets bet hard, then i get a better price on Kahramani (whom i like better anyway).
HRT record:
97 for 365 (27%)
$827.80 mutuels ($8.53 avg)
#6 Impressive Edge (8/1 ml)
Second-time starter for Asmussen comes in off a terrible debut performance, but several things catch the eye here. First off, note this guy got bet down to 4/5 odds in that race. That might not mean a whole lot, considering it was just a 6-horse field, and Asmussen firsters tend to get bet pretty hard @ Churchill anyway, but it's still a generally positive sign. Secondly, the race came over a sloppy track, so you can rightfully just throw it out and give him a clean slate on dry land. Thirdly, Asmussen has a long history at this meet of doing well with second-time starters shipping in from Churchill. So here's where it gets more interesting - in 2 of his last 3 drills, he outworked an unraced barnmate (one of those being Reckling, who is entered in Race 3 today). In the other drill (dated 7/19), he and Reckling worked heads-up in a team drill with the 3yo Gettysburg, who hasn't been winning lately, but has been entered in races like the Arkansas Derby and Belmont Stakes. Sure seems like there's more here than meets the eye, so at the big morning line price of 8/1, i think he's worth a shot. Incidentally, Geroux gets the call here, and it looks like he's 1-for-1 with Asmussen at this meet.
Saratoga - Race 3
#1 Kahramani (9/2 ml)
2yo firster for Pletcher worked heads-up from the gate on 7/7 with One Liner, who came out of that drill to win his debut here on opening weekend. Following that, in the 7/16 drill it appears that Kahramani may have outworked barnmate Super Surprise (looks that way but i can't confirm), who also won on opening weekend, taking an allowance race off a lengthy layoff after having won a stakes @ Belmont in her prior start last October. Also of note, both those winners had Velazquez in the irons, and here he is again. Possibly a bad rail draw here, but if he's got the speed to shoot out to the front (let's hope so), it could work out fine. Note: i read somewhere a few weeks ago that Barclay Tagg had a full brother to Tale of Ekati that's supposed to be pretty good, and that would be #3 Tale of Silence (3/1 ml). Looks like word may be out because he's listed as the favorite here (not counting the other Pletcher horse on the AE list). Whatever, if that one gets bet hard, then i get a better price on Kahramani (whom i like better anyway).
HRT record:
97 for 365 (27%)
$827.80 mutuels ($8.53 avg)
Comments
Good luck buddy.
Oh for fucks sake, I hope he romps, the double is paying $130 and I be having it a lot.
Lol, oh he's on the other pletcher....
My girlfriend raving about the chalk... Says 3,10 look decent too.
Ironic that the horse in Race 1 did nothing, then Reckling runs big in the 3rd race. Go figure.