Newbie Keeneland Show Bet Inquiry

fossickfossick Junior Member
edited October 2016 in Horse Racing Forum
In the first race today at Keeneland, D'Princess had odds of 6/5, and came in third. The Show payout was 2.60. It seems that the normal payout for favorites placing in one of the top 3 positions, is 2.10 or 2.20. Is there a way to know prior to Post Time, that a favorite who comes in third will have a higher payout than 2.10, like D'Princess did? I thought maybe certain figures in the Pool Total might point to a clue. Thanks for the help.

Comments

  • bumpobumpo Junior Member
    edited October 2016
    Hey Fossi,
    It obviously depends on who runs 1 and 2. The way the price is calculated you would have to take the entire show pool and subtract probably 17% for the track's takeout. Some tracks may differ. Then subtract the amounts bet on the first 3 finishers. Then take what's left and divide it in thirds. One third goes to the tickets bet on the first place horse, one third to those holding tickets for the correct place horse and one third to the tickets with the correct third place finisher.
    So let's say the show pool is $100000. The tracks takes out 17000 leaving 83000. If the total amount bet on the first 3 finishers is 60000, you're left with 23000. One third of that is 7667. That's what's left to divide between those holding tickets on the show horse. If there was let's say $3836, bet on the show horse to show, (effectively 1918 $2 tickets), or let's call it half of 7667, that ticket would be worth 4.00. So you're left with:
    1918 (number of $2 winning show tickets), divided by winning 1/3 share of the show pool, = $4.00 per ticket.
    Obviously a lot of guess work prior to the race as to who will run 1st and 2nd. I guess the takeaway would be that if you think the favorites will run out and there's not much bet on your horse to show, it may be a favorable spot. That's why it's not a very popular bet for players. Too much guess work.
    Maybe my example sucks but maybe it helps a little.
  • bumpobumpo Junior Member
    edited October 2016
    bumpo wrote: »
    Hey Fossi,
    It obviously depends on who runs 1 and 2. The way the price is calculated you would have to take the entire show pool and subtract probably 17% for the track's takeout. Some tracks may differ. Then subtract the amounts bet on the first 3 finishers. Then take what's left and divide it in thirds. One third goes to the tickets bet on the first place horse, one third to those holding tickets for the correct place horse and one third to the tickets with the correct third place finisher.
    So let's say the show pool is $100000. The tracks takes out 17000 leaving 83000. If the total amount bet on the first 3 finishers is 60000, you're left with 23000. One third of that is 7667. That's what's left to divide between those holding tickets on the show horse. If there was let's say $3836, bet on the show horse to show, (effectively 1918 $2 tickets), or let's call it half of 7667, that ticket would be worth 4.00. So you're left with:
    1918 (number of $2 winning show tickets), divided by winning 1/3 share of the show pool, = $4.00 per ticket.
    Obviously a lot of guess work prior to the race as to who will run 1st and 2nd. I guess the takeaway would be that if you think the favorites will run out and there's not much bet on your horse to show, it may be a favorable spot. That's why it's not a very popular bet for players. Too much guess work.
    Maybe my example sucks but maybe it helps a little.
    Won't let me edit. The order of math operations should read:

    The winning 1/3 share of the show pool, $7667, divided by 1918 (number of $2 winning show tickets) = $4.00 per ticket.
  • fossickfossick Junior Member
    edited October 2016
    That's a tremendous help, thank-you.
Sign In or Register to comment.

© Horse Racing Talk 2024