Pool Theory Question

TommyL

I'm doing a fantasy horse racing pool tomorrow. Everyone in the pool gets a fake $100 to play with, you can only do win bets, min is $25 and max is $100 (so can put it all on one race, spread it across 4 races, or something in between). The expectation is that about 20-25 people will be in it. And it's winner take all.

What is my best option? Obviously the strategy will be different between a pool with 2-3 people and a pool of this type with 10k entrants. At ~25 entrants, any thoughts on what I need to target in terms of $ to win it? I was thinking about putting it all on a horse in the 7-1 to 10-1 range, thinking that something around 800-1000 might be enough to win it while still giving myself a reasonable chance of hitting my play. It'll suck if someone else comes in with a 15-1 winner, but I don't think that I need to be looking at a complete longshot.

Any thoughts from a theory standpoint on how to play it?

And beyond that, any thoughts on a good play at Gulfstream tomorrow (that's the track we're using) that would fit my criteria?

dirtyshirt

You're right. I would bet it all on a 6 or 8 to 1.

rayphil

Don't think I would go over 10-1..think your odd selection is pretty right on..

rayphil

TommyL wrote: »

I'm doing a fantasy horse racing pool tomorrow. Everyone in the pool gets a fake $100 to play with, you can only do win bets, min is $25 and max is $100 (so can put it all on one race, spread it across 4 races, or something in between). The expectation is that about 20-25 people will be in it. And it's winner take all.

What is my best option? Obviously the strategy will be different between a pool with 2-3 people and a pool of this type with 10k entrants. At ~25 entrants, any thoughts on what I need to target in terms of $ to win it? I was thinking about putting it all on a horse in the 7-1 to 10-1 range, thinking that something around 800-1000 might be enough to win it while still giving myself a reasonable chance of hitting my play. It'll suck if someone else comes in with a 15-1 winner, but I don't think that I need to be looking at a complete longshot.

Any thoughts from a theory standpoint on how to play it?

And beyond that, any thoughts on a good play at Gulfstream tomorrow (that's the track we're using) that would fit my criteria?

Have to wait to see if it rains or not, but I was looking at race9..#7 marabea at ml..12-1..looks to be coming into form and should get a decent pace to run into..also think lezcano fits..

rayphil

rayphil wrote: »

Have to wait to see if it rains or not, but I was looking at race9..#7 marabea at ml..12-1..looks to be coming into form and should get a decent pace to run into..also think lezcano fits..

Don't know who you ended up playing but I hope you ended up with my pick...lol..don't know how your contest finished..marabea won at like 7-1..

dirtyshirt

rayphil wrote: »

Don't know who you ended up playing but I hope you ended up with my pick...lol..don't know how your contest finished..marabea won at like 7-1..

Your check better be in the mail. That was contest winning horse and strategy IMO.