Updated Power Rankings
SmartyCide
Member
I updated my power rankings here: www.DerbyPowerRankings.com
Love to hear some thoughts. Just remember these rankings are done on a college football ranking type of model. Previous performances, good or bad, moves horses up or down. These are not my opinion as to who wins the derby.
One of the flaws of this system, at least this year, that iv noticed is a lot of disappointments from perceived top horses leads to the improved rankings of horses that simply havent run much like Classic Empire.
Love to hear some thoughts. Just remember these rankings are done on a college football ranking type of model. Previous performances, good or bad, moves horses up or down. These are not my opinion as to who wins the derby.
One of the flaws of this system, at least this year, that iv noticed is a lot of disappointments from perceived top horses leads to the improved rankings of horses that simply havent run much like Classic Empire.
Comments
1. McCraken
2. Tapwrit (hard to believe i have the top two in the Sam Davis 1-2 overall)
3. American Anthem
4. One Liner
5. Gunnevera
6. Iliad
7. Girvin
8. Irish War Cry
9. Reach The World
10. Classic Empire
11. Malagacy
12. Royal Mo
Obviously could have Classic Empire higher, but I don't trust him right now, what with the poor Holy Bull run followed by the injuries and aborted workouts. Just not a lot of time left. Reserve the right to climb aboard the bandwagon if he shows he's able to shake it off and bounce back with a big effort, but he'll have to show me first.
Couple of others i have some doubts about (from a physical standpoint) are McCraken and Battalion Runner, but the McCraken thing seems minor by all indications (though it did cost him a start), and i think he has a strong enough foundation to overcome it. Battalion Runner, he must not have come out of that allowance race very well at all if Pletcher immediately declared that he was waiting for the Florida Derby (followed by a full month of no workouts). Hope i'm wrong about him, but i'm just not getting positive vibes at all. I did hear Pletcher say on radio recently that he just decided BR likes more time between races, but whatever. It seems like he just cares more about getting to the Derby than he does about winning it (perfect example being One Liner skipping the Rebel).
How bout Cloud Computing breaking the Apollo curse? The way I see it is after 4 favorites in a row and last year the 4 betting favorites in order finished 1 thru 4. I see something crazy happening this year. What would be crazier than Cloud Computing breaking the Apollo curse? If he runs the final 3/8 of the Wood Memorial in under 38 flat, look out. If not ill find another bomb. I do like Petrov, but he might not be a bomb after this weekend.. Like wise I may hop off his bandwagon if he tanks, so we'll see...
What's most interesting about Malagacy is whether he'll be able to relax and come from off the pace this time (which i think he has to in order to become a serious Derby contender). Lots of speed in the Rebel.
Be careful talking about my boy. He wasn't cranked, and certainly could have held 3rd, but was NEVER asked late. Sure Mastery broke his heart, but it cost Mastery an arm and a leg to do it. Shirrefs will have my boy ready come May.
www.derbypowerrankings.com
that was not easy...
Case in point:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/220525/after-not-working-classic-empire-gallops-in-ocala
He needs his safe space. Such a lame nag.
www.derbypowerrankings.com
www.DerbyPowerRankings.com
I'm having second thoughts about the quality of the Florida derby. Gunny looked like a drowned rat, broke from the outside, hit the rail, and still managed 3rd. Maybe his heart is just carrying him.
updated www.derbypowerrankings.com
www.DerbyPowerRankings.com
I agree wholeheartedly with Always Dreaming occupying the #1 spot. He's a rapidly improving colt whom it appears will relish the Derby distance. Not crazy about Pletcher and his record in the Derby, but this horse is a runner.
As for Irish War Cry, he bounced back in a big way, but honestly i wasn't overly impressed with his effort. He sat a perfect trip right off the flank of Battalion Runner, whom I had deep reservations about. Didn't understand all the hype going into that race yesterday. He pretty clearly didn't come out of that allowance win very well at all, and then Pletcher started shuffling his plans around something fierce (while never wavering on Always Dreaming, btw). He ran okay, but Irish War Cry was not severely tested by Battalion Runner, and no one else came to challenge at all. I still believe in Irish War Cry's talent, but I've seen him look better. Doesn't mean he cant run big in the Derby though.
Battalion Runner, I'm expecting less from him, obviously. Might be a good fade in head-to-head matchups.
www.DerbyPowerRankings.com
Malagacy wasn't helped by the wide trip, and he was definitely impeded a bit late when CMM started drifting out on him, but he just looked kind of blah today in the late going. I'm not convinced he wants to go farther.
www.DerbyPowerRankings.com will be back in the fall.
Final thoughts up on site now. See you next year! 363 days until Derby 144
onto the Preakness. He seems like the type of horse that based on his running style should win the Preakness and set us up for an interesting Belmont.
Nice job and well done. :toast:
all suggestions welcomed,
thanks