Some thoughts on Kentucky Derby futures
DiscreetCat
Moderator
There are some key points regarding Derby futures here that you'll never see from Mike Watchmaker or Jay Privman or anyone else connected with DRF, it seems. And the last people you'll ever hear it from are Mike Battaglia, John Asher, or anyone else connected with the Churchill Downs future wager. So here ya go:
Originally posted by: SalCal
is discreet cat still posting 100-1 (on War Pass) for the derby?
I figured this would get brought up. Let's just say that winning a one-turn mile vs. four hopelessly overmatched opponents (at odds of 1/20) in no way strengthens his Derby credentials.
On the plus side, he did finally get a race under his belt (if you can call it that), and he did look very impressive today. He was never asked for run at any point, and was still able to get the final furlong in something like 12 1/5. More important than anything else, he erased all doubts about his current physical condition, and is now one start closer to the Derby than he was this morning. That takes about another month off the calendar, assuming he doesn't injure himself in training.
What would i make him now? Maybe 50/1. Keep in mind, i'm talking about "true odds", not what you'll ever see offered in any Vegas sportsbook.
He still faces the exact same problem he did before. You're talking about winning a 1 1/4 mile race that's barely over two months away, and all he has to his credit this year is a glorified public workout. Throw in the fact he'll be likely be facing a contested pace in a 20-horse field, at a distance far greater than he's ever run before. That's a lot of uncertainty, and that's not even counting the possibility he'll be injured between now and then.
Sure, he's a top contender. He looked great yesterday. The main problem i have with him is that he appears committed to the lead. It's just too tough to wire the Derby. None of the horses will have ever run 1 1/4 miles before, and the pace is almost always hotly contested. If he's unlucky enough to draw a far outside post, that would add another unfavorable element.
Bottom line, even on raceday, the very STRONGEST contender would rate no better than a 4/1 chance. Start working backwards several months from there, with the chance of injury, sickness, regression, not adapting well to longer distances, etc. All those factors must be worked into the price you're willing to accept. That's what causes the chances of most horses to balloon well into the triple-digits when the race is still several months away. Obviously, the closer you get to raceday, the chances of the major contenders' continue to grow, through performance on the racetrack and the simple fact that they're still in training.
When it starts to get late, graded earnings become a major factor, as it becomes more and more apparent which horses will comprise the Derby field. There's just no shortage of obstacles to overcome. That's why it's freaking ridiculous when you crack open the Racing Form in February, and "experts" like Mike Watchmaker are listing horses @ 5/1 to win the Derby. It's a joke.
Coupla other points i should make, which are mainly connected to Breeders Cup futures (something i specialize in; i'm not a big fan of Derby futures).
In addition to the obvious factors such as injury, and potential regression, there are other uncertain factors that can cause trouble. For instance, last year i took a shot with Idiot Proof to win the BC Sprint @ 25/1, based partly on the fact that he seemed to take to the Monmouth surface like a duck to water (during his summertime win there). But as we all know now, the Monmouth surface came up a WHOLE lot different than the one he had raced over previously. Sloppy (or otherwise "off") tracks are an obvious concern, but not much more so than ANY new surface a horse doesn't have racing experience over. You just never know how a horse is going to react to a new surface. This is especially true in the turf races if there's any kind of moisture in the ground. Which of course is something you won't know about 2 or 3 or 4 months ahead of time. With relation to the Derby, many of the entrants in the Derby field will have never raced over the Churchill surface before. NONE of them will have attempted 1 1/4 miles. NONE of them will have experience in anything close to a 20-horse field. Traffic problems are a HUGE concern. Few of them (BC Juvenile horses being the only ones) will have experience in dealing with a huge crowd consisting of 100,000 screaming people. Horses are known to get spooked in such an environment (Afternoon Deelites comes readily to mind). All this stuff has to be factored into your price, which is pretty damn difficult because they're all unkown factors. They may cause a problem, they may not.
Originally posted by: SalCal
is discreet cat still posting 100-1 (on War Pass) for the derby?
I figured this would get brought up. Let's just say that winning a one-turn mile vs. four hopelessly overmatched opponents (at odds of 1/20) in no way strengthens his Derby credentials.
On the plus side, he did finally get a race under his belt (if you can call it that), and he did look very impressive today. He was never asked for run at any point, and was still able to get the final furlong in something like 12 1/5. More important than anything else, he erased all doubts about his current physical condition, and is now one start closer to the Derby than he was this morning. That takes about another month off the calendar, assuming he doesn't injure himself in training.
What would i make him now? Maybe 50/1. Keep in mind, i'm talking about "true odds", not what you'll ever see offered in any Vegas sportsbook.
He still faces the exact same problem he did before. You're talking about winning a 1 1/4 mile race that's barely over two months away, and all he has to his credit this year is a glorified public workout. Throw in the fact he'll be likely be facing a contested pace in a 20-horse field, at a distance far greater than he's ever run before. That's a lot of uncertainty, and that's not even counting the possibility he'll be injured between now and then.
Sure, he's a top contender. He looked great yesterday. The main problem i have with him is that he appears committed to the lead. It's just too tough to wire the Derby. None of the horses will have ever run 1 1/4 miles before, and the pace is almost always hotly contested. If he's unlucky enough to draw a far outside post, that would add another unfavorable element.
Bottom line, even on raceday, the very STRONGEST contender would rate no better than a 4/1 chance. Start working backwards several months from there, with the chance of injury, sickness, regression, not adapting well to longer distances, etc. All those factors must be worked into the price you're willing to accept. That's what causes the chances of most horses to balloon well into the triple-digits when the race is still several months away. Obviously, the closer you get to raceday, the chances of the major contenders' continue to grow, through performance on the racetrack and the simple fact that they're still in training.
When it starts to get late, graded earnings become a major factor, as it becomes more and more apparent which horses will comprise the Derby field. There's just no shortage of obstacles to overcome. That's why it's freaking ridiculous when you crack open the Racing Form in February, and "experts" like Mike Watchmaker are listing horses @ 5/1 to win the Derby. It's a joke.
Coupla other points i should make, which are mainly connected to Breeders Cup futures (something i specialize in; i'm not a big fan of Derby futures).
In addition to the obvious factors such as injury, and potential regression, there are other uncertain factors that can cause trouble. For instance, last year i took a shot with Idiot Proof to win the BC Sprint @ 25/1, based partly on the fact that he seemed to take to the Monmouth surface like a duck to water (during his summertime win there). But as we all know now, the Monmouth surface came up a WHOLE lot different than the one he had raced over previously. Sloppy (or otherwise "off") tracks are an obvious concern, but not much more so than ANY new surface a horse doesn't have racing experience over. You just never know how a horse is going to react to a new surface. This is especially true in the turf races if there's any kind of moisture in the ground. Which of course is something you won't know about 2 or 3 or 4 months ahead of time. With relation to the Derby, many of the entrants in the Derby field will have never raced over the Churchill surface before. NONE of them will have attempted 1 1/4 miles. NONE of them will have experience in anything close to a 20-horse field. Traffic problems are a HUGE concern. Few of them (BC Juvenile horses being the only ones) will have experience in dealing with a huge crowd consisting of 100,000 screaming people. Horses are known to get spooked in such an environment (Afternoon Deelites comes readily to mind). All this stuff has to be factored into your price, which is pretty damn difficult because they're all unkown factors. They may cause a problem, they may not.
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