Louisiana Derby
DiscreetCat
Moderator
I posted this on Tuley's site, might as well post it here as well.
If you look up "overlay" in the dictionary, you'll see a picture of Yankee Bravo.
I guess i should elaborate on that. For those who don't know, Yankee Bravo is an undefeated colt from Europe who is now trained by the excellent Patrick Gallagher. He blew the start in his European debut, but won very easily regardless. It was at one of the lower-level tracks, and he wasn't facing much, but he looked great doing it. He was purchased privately off that effort, and sent to Gallagher. Apparently, Gallagher liked him well enough that he entered him directly into the Eddie Logan Stakes for his American debut, which was not at all necessary on Gallagher's part because he alreday had two other, more highly-regarded entrants in the race. And yet, who did Gallagher main rider Solis choose to ride? Yankee Bravo. During the race (where he was surprisingly bet down to 7/2), Yankee Bravo found himself buried in traffic most of the way before finally getting clear late, although it looked like he had no shot at running fown the leader (Sky Cape), who had opened up on the field and appeared to be gone. However, Yankee Bravo suddenly took off like a rocketship, and ran down the leader with even some room to spare. Just an incredible turn of foot on this horse.
Incidentally, that performance was flattered when Sky Cape returned to win a downhill race by open lengths, and just last weekend he returned again to run a very strong second in a similar race. Going further, the third-place finisher Nistle's Crunch went to Gulfstream, and ran a good second to Pletcher's new Derby prospect Face the Cat. Nistle's Crunch then scored a victory last weekend over another highly-regarded Pletcher colt named Understatement. As for Yankee Bravo, he was shipped to Golden Gate for the California Derby, his first start on the main track. That race went much the same as the Eddie Logan had, with Yankee Bravo buried in traffic most of the way behind a slow pace, then roaring down the stretch late to win going away. This race was flattered when Medjool returned to win by open lengths.
Yankee Bravo will be overlooked here because the DRF "experts" can't talk about anything except how slow he is, and how he has the lowest Beyer figures of any horse ever to appear on their "Derby Watch". But the fact of the matter is, the reason for those slow times and low Beyers had nothing to do with Yankee Bravo himself. You see, in both races he was positioned well behind a very slow pace, while covered up in traffic. So Yankee Bravo had ZERO influence on how fast (or slow) the race was being run in the early stages. If anything, the slow pace should've made it more difficult for Yankee Bravo to run down the leaders (particularly a fine horse like Sky Cape). Ironically, this situation is almost identical to what Pyro faced in the Risen Star, where he was kept well behind a snail-like pace before coming out late to run down the leaders and win going way, in a slow final time that was a full second slower than Indian Blessing ran earlier on the card. Somehow though, the same DRF experts who think Yankee Bravo is slow were heaping praise all over Pyro, listing him around 5/1 to win the Derby off that effort. I guess that's what happens when your last race came in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, rather than the Eddie Logan Stakes.
Bottom line, i don't see much seperating Yankee Bravo ands Pyro here, aside from the ridiculous discrepency in odds. Pyro does have a race over the track (and a very good one), while this will be Yankee Bravo's first start on a natural dirt surface. Yankee Bravo has shown himself capable of handling a variety of surfaces, however. Both horses figure to employ similar running styles here, and it seems simply a matter of who can out-kick who. As for the other big names entered here (Tale of Ekati and Majestic Warrior), they each a lot to prove. Both are coming off long layoffs, and neither one has anywhere near the established two-turn form of Pyro or Yankee Bravo. They do figure to receive signifigant toteboard action however, based solely on their 2yo reputations (which were built on their performance in sprint races, not routes). Also figuring to receive some action is the hotshot sprinter J Be K, who starts for the very-popular-in-Louisiana Steve Asmussen. That one has never been past 6 furlongs, and is making quite the stretchout attempt here while moving well up in class. If nothing else, he should ensure an honest pace here, which figures to boost the chances of both Pyro and Yankee Bravo (though both have already proven they don't need a fast pace to run at).
Edit: I've just been informed that Yankee Bravo is 4/1 on the morning line. Not quite what i was expecting (or hoping for). I still think he'll approach double-digits however, barring any major scratches. We shall see.
If you look up "overlay" in the dictionary, you'll see a picture of Yankee Bravo.
I guess i should elaborate on that. For those who don't know, Yankee Bravo is an undefeated colt from Europe who is now trained by the excellent Patrick Gallagher. He blew the start in his European debut, but won very easily regardless. It was at one of the lower-level tracks, and he wasn't facing much, but he looked great doing it. He was purchased privately off that effort, and sent to Gallagher. Apparently, Gallagher liked him well enough that he entered him directly into the Eddie Logan Stakes for his American debut, which was not at all necessary on Gallagher's part because he alreday had two other, more highly-regarded entrants in the race. And yet, who did Gallagher main rider Solis choose to ride? Yankee Bravo. During the race (where he was surprisingly bet down to 7/2), Yankee Bravo found himself buried in traffic most of the way before finally getting clear late, although it looked like he had no shot at running fown the leader (Sky Cape), who had opened up on the field and appeared to be gone. However, Yankee Bravo suddenly took off like a rocketship, and ran down the leader with even some room to spare. Just an incredible turn of foot on this horse.
Incidentally, that performance was flattered when Sky Cape returned to win a downhill race by open lengths, and just last weekend he returned again to run a very strong second in a similar race. Going further, the third-place finisher Nistle's Crunch went to Gulfstream, and ran a good second to Pletcher's new Derby prospect Face the Cat. Nistle's Crunch then scored a victory last weekend over another highly-regarded Pletcher colt named Understatement. As for Yankee Bravo, he was shipped to Golden Gate for the California Derby, his first start on the main track. That race went much the same as the Eddie Logan had, with Yankee Bravo buried in traffic most of the way behind a slow pace, then roaring down the stretch late to win going away. This race was flattered when Medjool returned to win by open lengths.
Yankee Bravo will be overlooked here because the DRF "experts" can't talk about anything except how slow he is, and how he has the lowest Beyer figures of any horse ever to appear on their "Derby Watch". But the fact of the matter is, the reason for those slow times and low Beyers had nothing to do with Yankee Bravo himself. You see, in both races he was positioned well behind a very slow pace, while covered up in traffic. So Yankee Bravo had ZERO influence on how fast (or slow) the race was being run in the early stages. If anything, the slow pace should've made it more difficult for Yankee Bravo to run down the leaders (particularly a fine horse like Sky Cape). Ironically, this situation is almost identical to what Pyro faced in the Risen Star, where he was kept well behind a snail-like pace before coming out late to run down the leaders and win going way, in a slow final time that was a full second slower than Indian Blessing ran earlier on the card. Somehow though, the same DRF experts who think Yankee Bravo is slow were heaping praise all over Pyro, listing him around 5/1 to win the Derby off that effort. I guess that's what happens when your last race came in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, rather than the Eddie Logan Stakes.
Bottom line, i don't see much seperating Yankee Bravo ands Pyro here, aside from the ridiculous discrepency in odds. Pyro does have a race over the track (and a very good one), while this will be Yankee Bravo's first start on a natural dirt surface. Yankee Bravo has shown himself capable of handling a variety of surfaces, however. Both horses figure to employ similar running styles here, and it seems simply a matter of who can out-kick who. As for the other big names entered here (Tale of Ekati and Majestic Warrior), they each a lot to prove. Both are coming off long layoffs, and neither one has anywhere near the established two-turn form of Pyro or Yankee Bravo. They do figure to receive signifigant toteboard action however, based solely on their 2yo reputations (which were built on their performance in sprint races, not routes). Also figuring to receive some action is the hotshot sprinter J Be K, who starts for the very-popular-in-Louisiana Steve Asmussen. That one has never been past 6 furlongs, and is making quite the stretchout attempt here while moving well up in class. If nothing else, he should ensure an honest pace here, which figures to boost the chances of both Pyro and Yankee Bravo (though both have already proven they don't need a fast pace to run at).
Edit: I've just been informed that Yankee Bravo is 4/1 on the morning line. Not quite what i was expecting (or hoping for). I still think he'll approach double-digits however, barring any major scratches. We shall see.
Comments