Is Adriano a Ky Derby Prospect?
RightAngle
Administrator
Connections are talking like they may not point to the Derby, but after a performance like that and with A.P. Indy breeding, how can they not?
I see him at 40-1 and 45-1 at some offshores.
Any thoughts?
I see him at 40-1 and 45-1 at some offshores.
Any thoughts?
Comments
Trainer Graham Motion forecasted the victory by saying beforehand that, if Adriano won, it would not mean that the colt was en route to Louisville. But after owner Donald Adam got a taste of Jim Beam in his stomach, the sentiment was different. By pocketing the $291,400 winners share, Adam, a man who has spent millions of dollars at the yearling auctions, assured Adriano a place in the Derby starting gate.
Alas, the Texas banker and real estate tycoon said, This is a very proud moment. Weve been in the business a long time, and we havent had major success. Given this situation, he is certain to prevail upon Motion to reconsider the colts Derby potential.
Derby attempt unlikely, Adriano connections say
By MARTY McGEE
FLORENCE, Ky. - Adriano would be a cinch to make the field for the 134th Kentucky Derby after raking in $285,000 in graded earnings by capturing the Grade 2 Lane's End Stakes, but while trainer Graham Motion is leaving open the possibility of pointing in that direction, he called the Derby "unlikely" for the A.P. Indy colt.
Adriano, bred and owned by the Courtlandt Farms of Donald Adam, was a 2 1/2-length winner Saturday at Turfway Park in the lone major Derby prep of the weekend. The colt was scheduled to return by air to the Palm Meadows training center in south Florida on Tuesday, said Motion. The April 19 Coolmore Lexington Stakes on the Keeneland Polytrack is the likely next start, he added.
As for the Derby, "We've still got to talk about it some more," Motion said Monday from Florida. "I wanted to get the horse back here to train while I'm in Dubai. I'll see how he's doing when I get back and assess it further. The Derby? It's unlikely at this point, but like I said before the race, never say never. Let's get him back here and see how he's doing."
While Adriano has raced primarily on turf, he now has a win and a fourth in two Polytrack tries. His lone dirt try, a ninth-place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes four weeks before the Lane's End, is somewhat difficult to gauge, said Motion.
"So much of why he ran well Saturday was because of his behavior," said Motion. "He's a horse that can get very shook up, but he was great before this race. He was pretty shook up before the Fountain of Youth, so it's a little hard to read into how much his poor performance was due to his behavior and how much to the track. Obviously, a day like Derby Day wouldn't be easy for him."
The respective 2-3-4 finishers in the Lane's End - Halo Najib, Medjool, and Racecar Rhapsody - all are possibilities to run back against Adriano in the 1 1/16-mile Lexington, according to their connections.
Meanwhile, purely from a Turfway Park perspective, the victory by Adriano was not ideal, if only because the track would prefer to have the winner of its showcase race move forward to the Derby. Turfway president Bob Elliston acknowledged last week that the nature of Polytrack is such that a turf horse might one day win the Lane's End and bypass the Derby. That possibility clearly exists this year.
My top three Derby prospects at this moment (in order of preference) are Pyro, Georgie Boy, and Yankee Bravo. I'm also very interested to to see what Big Brown does in the Florida Derby this weekend. He probably doesn't have enough foundation to win the Kentucky Derby (and he also reportedly has bad feet), but he doesn't look short on talent.
I just thought that if he was going to run in it, 45-1 is a fair price, but without knowing if they will even try for it, I will have to pass.
Since DC brought up Georgie Boy here as a top contender (he is one of mine as well), thought I talk about a major concern I have w/ the horse. There is a reason Georgie Boy looks like a big clod when he's charging down the lane. He refuses to switch off his left lead. He has a very, very quick turn of foot and quick stride and the reason he shows so much acceleration in the stretch. I watched him do this winning the Del Mar Futurity, and he did it again winning his last. He's done it in almost all of his races. The problem I have with it is, not sure how well that style is going to adapt to dirt. Horses on that Del Mar track, and the track many times this SA meet after the polymers were incorportate, not only didn't pay a penalty for not switching leads, but horses hanging on their left leads actually had an advantage over the track. This is one thing I've noticed about the syn surfaces. I'm sure Georgie Boy is headed toward the SA derby, but I'd like to see at least one routing dirt race before throwing my support behind him in the Derby. There's a very good chance that if he doesn't switch in the lane on dirt, lot of lugging in going to be taking place. I know there's hall of fame trainers who think a horse switching leads is completely over blown, but at a 1 1/4, gotta think it's pretty important.
Back to the horse in question, Adriano, most trainers know the toughness of winning the derby and most would suggest easier spots then the derby if they didnt feel they had a legit shot at the top 5, and this horse did look solid and had a nice stretch run, and I would say a much shorter price then 45-1 if he did run the derby with that running style, but I feel the trainer knows the horse is conisder 2nd tier (1st tier beeing legit contenders, War pass, Pryo and a couple others) and I would think the owners will be talking in his ear, and at the end of the day they are the ones who pay the bills, and I do think you will see this horse in the derby!