anyone have any of the Wizzards plays for today?
railbird
Junior Member
thanks for all the help guys
railbird
Junior Member
Comments
Advance Weather Forecast
Mostly Cloudy; High 59 Low 42.
Wizard's Crystal Ball:
#5 CLASSIC TIARA (Race 5) On a very difficult card, I am going with a price play in here to upset the heavy favorite Meridith Bee. To me, Classic Tiara is one of those horses with "hidden good form". She has started 18 times, but if you throw out her 6 grass races (she dislikes turf), what you have is filly with 12 starts, 4 wins, 3 seconds and 3 thirds. That's consistency for sure. She has raced twice over this course with a win and 1 second. She has only raced at 7f once, and that was certainly a good enough race to win this. Gets a huge rider change to Desormeaux. He has ridden for trainer Scherer only 3 times in the last 5 years, winning twice at a price and 1 second place finish. (how's that for digging up a "juicy" tid bit of info!).
#2 ISLAND WARRIOR (Race 6) One of those horses that has better form than it looks on paper. Takes class drop today and cuts back ion distance. Consistent lifetime winner. 1 for 1 over this course as well as liking today's 6f distance. Should get first run on the pacesetters. Trainer Stewart won a race opening day for these owners and breeders, Overbrook stable. At 5-1 morning line odds and the chance to beat a heavy favorite, he becomes one of my 3 Crystal Ball selections on the day, and all 3 are price plays!
#6 LADY ON HOLIDAY (Race 7) Once again we reach into our top hot to see if we can pull out another price play as our 3rd Crystal Ball selection. There are 2 horses in here who figure to gut it out on the front end. The track did not play to speed on opening day. If this happens again and even if the track is honest, I feel that the race sets up for a horse to close and get the money. Lady On Holiday looks like she fit's the bill. Even race at a mile as the beaten chalk in last. Made 2 moves for a good 3rd two back off the layoff. The jock moved too early that day. Reunited with Albarado today who rode her to victory with a fine ride back in November, She is well suited to 7f, gets the right post and hails from a trainer having a strong year. Excellant 5f work Mar 25.
EVERY EFFORT WAS MADE TO ENSURE ACCURACY OF PROGRAM NUMBERS. PLEASE CONFIRM BEFORE WAGERING.
1st KEE 1 1/8m MdnSpWt 3yo, Purse: $50,000. ( 1:15)/12:15/11:15/10:15
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 Min) / Pick 3 (races 1-2-3),superfecta ($.10 Min)
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
2 GROUND FROST 5/1 Ships in from Santa Anita for the always dangerous Bobby Frankel. Exits a strong maiden field in which the 2nd place finisher came back to run a solid 2nd in a $600,000 stake. 3rd place finisher won next out. Draws a good inside post and gets Castellano who forms a strong trainer and rider combination.
1 TIZZY 5/1 Victimized by tough outside posts last 3 starts. Very wide trips in each. More speed expected today with blinkers added and post 1. Hot trainer McPeek very strong when adding the hood 1st time.
12 YOU AND I FOREVER 3/1 Decent effort in debut at Gulfstream. Forced to race down inside after a slow start, a trip which is difficult to overcome. 3rd place finisher out of the race came back to win impressively. Well bred. Must overcome outside post.
5 TIZ NOW TIZ THEN 7/2 Another California shipper who likes to lay back and make 1 late run. 3rd place finisher in last came back to score. Acts like the added distance today should only help.
2nd KEE 7f Clm $16,000 4yo and up, Purse: $22,000. ( 1:45)/12:45/11:45/10:45
Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 Min) / Pick 3 (races 2-3-4) / Pick 4 (races 2-3-4-5),superfecta ($.10 Min)
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
2 SMALLTOWN SLEW 2/1 Reunited with top trainer Amoss, who had great success with this 7 year old in the past. Obviously not the same horse as he was, so Amoss drops him sharply in class. Seems like the kind of move to get the owners picture taken in the winners circle. Loves 7f as well.
1 LIL TREE 5/2 I could have easily picked him on top because he is the lone speed. The problem which concerns me is that he breaks from the rail and does not have much experience at the tricky 7 furlong distance. 1 for 1 since claimed by top trainer Cody in his last start. Confident boost in class today and stable rider back aboard.
6 TUX N' TALES 5/1 Takes a smart drop in class and stretches out in distance. 1 for 1 at 7 furlongs and that win was over this course. Versatile 5 year old, can stalk or close from behind. Gets top rider Albarado.
3rd KEE 1 1/8m (Turf) Alw 4yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $54,000. ( 2:15)/ 1:15/12:15/11:15
Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 Min) / Pick 3 (races 3-4-5) / Superfecta ($.10 Min)
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
2 BOBBY'S BABE 15/1 Adds blinkers switching back to grass. Turf form better than it looks. The one race she raced on soft turf was against better. She broke from an impossible outside post, then was forced to race very wide throughout. Still managed to finish up ok. Draws a good inside post today.
6 LOH COLLADO 5/2 Certainly a major danger in here, but I decided to go with a price horse who already has experince on wet turf. Good efforts in all 3 turf starts. Closed ground after a wide trip in last. Well suited to today's distance. Top trainer and rider.
8 REMOULADE 3/1 Very consistent turf form and a versatile filly. Can stalk up close or rate and finish from mid pack. Makes 2nd start off a layoff and 2nd time Matz who is a fine horseman.
10 SATIVA 8/1 Despite taking 13 starts to break her maiden, I liked the way she did it last out. Circled field to draw clear with authority. Has run well on wet turf which is a plus.
Race Notes: NOTE: If this race is taken off the grass, pass it.
4th KEE 1 1/8m MdnSpWt 3yo, Purse: $50,000. ( 2:45)/ 1:45/12:45/11:45
Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 Min) / Pick 3 (races 4-5-6) / Superfecta ($.10 Min)
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
3 POWERFUL STORM 8/1 Vast improvement in last start stretching out to 2 turns for the 1st time. Ran 2nd to a quality 3 year old. Gets a huge rider change today to Desormeaux who forms a strong trainer and rider combo for Romans. Draws a good inside post as well.
10 PRADEROSO 4/1 Steady improvement last 2 starts with blinkers added. Perfect trip second Mar 15 in 2 turn debut. Broke from rail that day. Outside post today. Gets a big rider change to Albarado.
7 EVADE 10/1 Handled stretch out to 2 turns well in last start. Broke from a tough outside post and still managed to get 3rd despite a very wide trip. Returned with a strong gate work over this track Mar 29. More speed expected breaking from a better slot today.
8 PRINCE HOPE 4/1 Has had 8 chances to break through this condition. Despite this, he fires a good shot in the stretch which makes him a factor here. Another plus is that he has Asmussen as his trainer.
5th KEE 7f Alw 4yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $58,000. ( 3:15)/ 2:15/ 1:15/12:15
Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 Min) / Pick 3 (races 5-6-7) / Pick 6 (races 5-10),superfecta ($.10 Min)
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
5 CLASSIC TIARA 4/1 Has a good chance to upset the favorite at a price. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!!
6 MEREDITH BEE 8/5 The expected heavy and overbet favorite certainly a danger in here following several good efforts. Closed well too late last out at Tampa in lone start at 7f. Tactical speed from good outside post. Hall of fame trainer in Mott and gets low profile rider who does well for this barn.
7 THUMBIN' A RIDE 7/2 Makes 3rd start off a long layoff after being privatly purchased. Decent effort 2 back off the bench. Improved in last making grass debut. Closed well too late despite a very tough trip. Draws good post, gets Albarado and has tactical speed.
6th KEE 6fAlwOClm $80,000 4yo and up, Purse: $62,000. ( 3:45)/ 2:45/ 1:45/12:45
Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 Min) / Pick 3 (races 6-7-8) / Superfecta ($.10 Min)
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
2 ISLAND WARRIOR 5/1 I smell an upset over a heavy favorite today. Do we have the right one? We will know in just over a minute. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!!!
7 SALUTE THE COUNT 4/1 Reunited with trainer Anthony Dutrow for sharp owners. Has more than double the wins than the others. This 8 year old is a gem of consistency who has excellant tactical speed and the right post for his running stlye. Even though most of his career has been on grass, he does show 4 dirt wins. Gets top rider Desormeaux. Shows a series of solid workouts.
6 WHERETHEWESTBEGINS 5/1 Would not surprise me a bit of he were to upset this field as well. Goes grass to dirt for a top trainer. Throw out last after a slow start. More speed expected at a distance he is 1 for 1 at.
5 RONDO 7/5 I could be wrong, but I feel this is a vulnerable heavy favorite. Returns off a long layoff which is of minor concern for me, as his connections are the best in the world having horses dead fit off the bench. The negatives is that he faces intense pressure from an inside speed runner. Obviously he has physical problems because he is so lightly raced as a 5 year old. Regardless, I must look to beat him, but use him underneath in some saver plays.
7th KEE 7f Alw 3yo Fillies, Purse: $54,000. ( 4:15)/ 3:15/ 2:15/ 1:15
Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 Min) / Pick 3 (races 7-8-9) / Pick 4 (races 7-8-9-10),superfecta ($.10 Min)
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
6 LADY ON HOLIDAY 4/1 Gets the right pace set up to score at a decent price. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!!!
2 SPOKEN 5/1 Returns off a layoff making 1st start for good trainer Al Stall. Strong maiden win in last start before heading to the bench. I get the feeling that she is not a need the lead type, tactics which would help her today. Solid work Mar 29 over this course.
5 ROYAL DIANA 8/1 Filly with a ton of early speed. May be fast enough to outrun Gloriously to the lead, but she will have to work hard to do it. Because of this, I feel she is vulnerable at the 7f distance. The positive is that I love her trainer Larry Jones!
8th KEE 1 1/8m (Turf) Alw 4yo and up, Purse: $67,000. ( 4:45)/ 3:45/ 2:45/ 1:45
Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 Min) / Pick 3 (races 8-9-10) Superfecta ($.10 Min)
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
8 TRUE DANCER 8/1 Scratched on Florida Derby day as my Crystal Ball Selection. Entry-mate got the job done. 8 year old gelding loves to win: (has more victories than any in this field). Has shown he can handle wet turf. Excellant tactical speed. Trainer Dutrow and these owners IEAH stable, scored out last weekend, winning enough money to put my mother in law's 24 grandchildren to college and still have money left to keep me in sushi for the rest of my life.
5 SILVERFOOT 12/1 8 year old has seen his best days go by, but I feel he has the inate talent to regain his winning form off the drop in class today. Makes 3rd start off a layoff, an angle I love. Handles wet turf, likes the distance and has the right kind of late running style which plays to this course.
10 YATE'S BLACK CAT 5/1 Would be no surprise if he ran big here. Throw out last after a troubled start. Consistent form in prior starts. 2 good races over this course. Will be closing strong late.
2 CHATTAHOOCHEE WAR 3/1 Obviously has some physical problems having raced on 14 times as a 6 year old. Wheeled back in 19 days after a sharp front running win at Santa Anita. Does not need lead to score here. Breaks from post 1, one for one over this course and hails from a top trainer.
Race Notes: NOTE: Pass this race if switched to the polytrack!!
9th KEE 1 1/16m Grade I 3yo Fillies, Purse: $500,000. ( 5:15)/ 4:15/ 3:15/ 2:15
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 Min) / Superfecta ($.10 Min)
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
6 COUNTRY STAR 9/5 This Frankel trainee makes her long awaited 3 year old debut in a Grade 1 stake. The Ashland will be a springboard to her ultimate goal, which is to win the prestigious Kentucky Oaks. Neverthess, I feel Country Star is primed for a winning race today. Frankel jumped her in class from a MSW to the Grade 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland and she did not even win that maiden race. She proved that this is a top class filly, when she came back to win the Grade 1 Hoillywood Starlet. In order to win the Ashland, Country Star will have to run down Proud Spell who will get the jump on her. Country Star's stretch kick is very strong, which can only help, as well as her ability to adapt to any pace situtation. Another factor in her favor, is that she has a win over this course and distance, and that came in a Gr 1 stake. Solid works for this and one of the best horseman art winning important stakes races.
5 PROUD SPELL 8/5 Obviously, I would not be the least surpised if this very talented filly wins this race. A matter of fact, it was a difficult decision on who to place on top. Proud Spell has been a gem of consistency throughout her 6 race career. She has never been worse than 2nd, with 2 of her wins in graded stakes. Her 2nd place finish in the BC Juvenile fillies was a super effort. Proud Spell has won at 3 different racetracks. She has yet to run on polytrack, but I don't thuink that will be much of a concern. Proud Spell has tremendous tactical speed and a strong grinding stretch run. I expect her to take the lead at some point in the stretch and then try to hold off the late charge of Country Star. Trainer Larry Jobnes is loaded with top class stock, with another super filly he trains awaiting another big stakes event.
10th KEE 1 1/8m (Turf) Alw 4yo and up, Purse: $54,000. ( 5:45)/ 4:45/ 3:45/ 2:45
Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 Min) / Superfecta ($.10 Min) / Super High Five,($1 Min)
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
2 COBRADOR 12/1 Longshot play looks "sneaky" in this spot at 12-1 ML. 2 improving races off long layoff. Closed well too late. Added distance today can only help. Inside post doesn't hurt either. Has shown he can handle wet turf and this course.
6 COMMODORE BOB 10/1 Last race better than it looks. Eliminated at the start. Good 2nd two back on wet turf. Consistent form in prior starts. At 10-1 ML, he looks like a good saver.
10 AMWAAL 6/1 His 2nd place finish 2 back over wet turf suggests that this course condition will be up his alley. Has tactical speed and rider Maragh, who forms a potent trainer and rider combo with top trainer McLaughlin.
11 DON'TWAIT TOOLONG 5/1 Must have race fall apart late to win, but that is a possibility. Has a nice closing kick, but has shown he has trouble sustaining the rally. Hall Of Fame trainer.
Race Notes: NOTE: No bet if switched to the polytrack!