Wagering Psychology
warrant
Banned
another great read from mr needham
Pari-Mutuel Psychology
For the novice visitor to a race track, the idea of pari-mutuel wagering, can often be confusing. However, for the more advanced horse player this general "confusion" can often lead to some dramatic, and profitable plays on some "emotional" races, and also on one very specific race each day ... the last race on the card! Since the term pari-mutuel is the type of wager that we are making, we are not betting against the track, or a fixed odd-line as in sports betting, we are betting "amongst ourselves" (which is exactly what the term pari-mutuel means after being translated from French).
At a race track on any given day, the people who can be found going to the teller windows as the race card progresses have handicapping abilities which range from "Let's Bet on The Gray" - to "I like that horse's name" - to savvied horse players who spend hours the day before making sound handicapping judgements based on the traditional racing principles of speed, class and pace.
Unfortunately for most, by the 8th race in a 9 race card, they are "in the red!" (Think about it for a second .. we would not have racing, or casino action, or wagering on sports events if the majority of the bettors made a profit) The 9th race then becomes crucial for a lot of folks who are losing, and their strategy of course it to hope to "get back into the black" with a tidy longshot (4-1 or better) win in the finale.
Once again, the majority of these folks do not understand the "pari-mutuel concept" so their "shot wagers" of course depresses the odds on the longshot, making them a decided UNDERLAY, while the 2-1 or 5-2 entry that you had selected the night before (but probably would have not wagered on), will then become an OVERLAY as the odds on the tote board climb to 3-1 and then to 7-2.
I've noticed in many years of handicapping that this "phenomenon" is more prevalent on the weekend, when the track attendance is often higher, and the patrons often are casual players out for an "exciting afternoon." The strategy also works well for "emotional races" such as The Triple Crown, or Breeders' Cup events ... just look what happened in The Preakness the year when Fusaichi Pegasus was bet down by the public who expected that they were witnessing the birth of a Cigar or a Secretariat, driving the price on the winner, Red Bullet up on the board.
A similar situation happened in 1999 when the "fans" (and good fans they were - but not pari-mutuel players), drove the odds on Charismatic down in The Belmont Stakes, providing a huge OVERLAY on Lemon Drop Kid! You can certainly use this strategy to good advantage at an off-track facility on a daily basis, as you will often have the opportunity to wager on numerous "Race #9's!" Remember to wait until the final moments to place your wager, and that morning line favorite that you ruled out the night before because of a potential "poor payout" will suddenly become quite a value!
Pari-Mutuel Psychology
For the novice visitor to a race track, the idea of pari-mutuel wagering, can often be confusing. However, for the more advanced horse player this general "confusion" can often lead to some dramatic, and profitable plays on some "emotional" races, and also on one very specific race each day ... the last race on the card! Since the term pari-mutuel is the type of wager that we are making, we are not betting against the track, or a fixed odd-line as in sports betting, we are betting "amongst ourselves" (which is exactly what the term pari-mutuel means after being translated from French).
At a race track on any given day, the people who can be found going to the teller windows as the race card progresses have handicapping abilities which range from "Let's Bet on The Gray" - to "I like that horse's name" - to savvied horse players who spend hours the day before making sound handicapping judgements based on the traditional racing principles of speed, class and pace.
Unfortunately for most, by the 8th race in a 9 race card, they are "in the red!" (Think about it for a second .. we would not have racing, or casino action, or wagering on sports events if the majority of the bettors made a profit) The 9th race then becomes crucial for a lot of folks who are losing, and their strategy of course it to hope to "get back into the black" with a tidy longshot (4-1 or better) win in the finale.
Once again, the majority of these folks do not understand the "pari-mutuel concept" so their "shot wagers" of course depresses the odds on the longshot, making them a decided UNDERLAY, while the 2-1 or 5-2 entry that you had selected the night before (but probably would have not wagered on), will then become an OVERLAY as the odds on the tote board climb to 3-1 and then to 7-2.
I've noticed in many years of handicapping that this "phenomenon" is more prevalent on the weekend, when the track attendance is often higher, and the patrons often are casual players out for an "exciting afternoon." The strategy also works well for "emotional races" such as The Triple Crown, or Breeders' Cup events ... just look what happened in The Preakness the year when Fusaichi Pegasus was bet down by the public who expected that they were witnessing the birth of a Cigar or a Secretariat, driving the price on the winner, Red Bullet up on the board.
A similar situation happened in 1999 when the "fans" (and good fans they were - but not pari-mutuel players), drove the odds on Charismatic down in The Belmont Stakes, providing a huge OVERLAY on Lemon Drop Kid! You can certainly use this strategy to good advantage at an off-track facility on a daily basis, as you will often have the opportunity to wager on numerous "Race #9's!" Remember to wait until the final moments to place your wager, and that morning line favorite that you ruled out the night before because of a potential "poor payout" will suddenly become quite a value!
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