SPUR OF THE MOMENT: PICK 3s AND PICK 4s by Dean Arnold
warrant
Banned
SPUR OF THE MOMENT: PICK 3s AND PICK 4s
FANTASY VS. REALITY
The Pick 3 and Pick 4 are among the most popular exotic wagers at the track, but they are also among the most mis-played wagers. They are a great way to try and make a big score with a modest investment, but they are also a source of endless frustration if they arent played correctly.
Unless they are properly bet, they can become a steady drain on the players bankroll. Here are the realities and the fantasies that fuel these ever-popular wagers.
First off, the true odds of hitting three races in a row are very low. How low?
Lets suppose you pick three consecutive 2-1 shots. Each has a 33 percent chance to win. The math works out as follows: 0.33 x 0.33 x 0.33 = 0.0363.
Three 2-1 shots in a row has just a 3.63 percent chance of hitting. That means the Pick 3 combining these three low-priced horses has to pay almost 28-1, or $29 for a $1 betjust to pay fair value. Will you get that kind of payoff in a Pick 3 with three favorites? Not likely.
Extend this logic to the Pick 4, and the math works out as such: 0.33 x 0.33 x 0.33 x 0.33 = 0.01186.
A Pick 4 of 2-1 shots only has 1.186 percent chance of winning, so it would have to pay 85-1 to break even, or $86 for a $1 bet. Again, a Pick 4 with four favorites is not likely to pay enough to offer fair value.
Neither the Pick 3 or Pick 4 are good candidates for profit if your plan is to play just a few combinations of low-priced horses. Stringing together favorite after favorite leads to playing the most over-bet combinations, and still having a very small chance of winning, let alone making a score. And even when you are right, you are often not rewarded for itespecially after having to sweat through three or four races in a row.
On the other hand, playing a number of horses in each leg of the Pick 3 or Pick 4 will greatly increase the chances of hitting the wagerand if you can catch a long shot in the mix, then your payoff increases exponentially. Playing the top four contenders in each race might give the bettor an 80 percent chance of winning each leg. 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.8 = 0.512, so giving yourself an 80 percent chance to win each leg of a Pick 3 gives you a 51 percent chance of winning the wager.
The same math in the Pick 4 leaves you with a 40 percent chance of winning. Thats the good news. The bad news is the cost of the wager. A $1 4x4x4 ticket costs $64. A $1 4x4x4x4 ticket will run you $256. And if in any leg of the wager you dont feel you can cover 80 percent of the likely outcomes, youd need to add even more runners. Expenses for this kind of bet get rapidly out of control. Using all 12 runners in a wide-open maiden claiming race increases the Pick 4 ticket cost to $756. In this scenario, you will need to not only be correct, but also have a few long shots come in just to break even.
Most gamblers try to cut costs by singling a runner in one of the legs. If they choose to single a heavy favorite, they sacrifice their chances of getting a large payout. If they single a horse at higher odds, they significantly reduce their chances of winning.
Strangely enough, few exotic players wince at the notion of singling a horse that they would not place a large win bet on. The player who singles a horse in the Pick 4 can reduce his $256 ticket down to a $64 ticket (1x4x4x4=$64). This form of singling, however, is the equivalent of making a $64 win bet on your singlebut with no guarantee of cashing even if your single wins.
So you should always think about having separate win money down on your Pick 3 or Pick 4 single, just in case it wins and the rest of the ticket blows up. This way you can at least make a big score without having to depend on the outcome of the other races. The most unusual aspect of Pick 3 and Pick 4 play today is the publics willingness to make lots of little bets on super-exotics rather than one big crusher in the win pool.
So what is the best way to play these wagers? First, use them to augment play on a single best bet you already plan to wager on to win. If you have a 4-1 shot you love, and plan to wager, say, $50 on it to win, you can play it with 4 logical contenders in two legs of the Pick 3. For $16 in the Pick 3, you can have a 12.8 percent chance of cashing in on your best bet.
This kind of singling makes sense as a chance to greatly boost potential payoff without a great amount of additional wagering capital being put at risk. Pick 4s should only be bet in this fashion if two of the four legs include genuine best bets. Caution: Winning these kinds of plays regularly is a fantasy, so if you play them, be sure you are setting yourself up for a big score.
Also be prepared for siege warfare, with long breaks between successes. Hopefully the money laid off on the exotic plays does not negate profits from the win bets on the same top selections.
The second way to play these wagers is to play multiple tickets, each with a key horse singled in a particular leg. Rather than playing a $64 4x4x4 ticket, the player designates a key contender for each leg, and plays it in singles with the 4 contenders in each of the other two races. The three tickets are 1x4x4, 4x1x4, and 4x4x1. For $1, each of the three tickets costs $16, for a total of $48. Aside from costing $16 less than the single 4x4x4 ticket, it also gives the player a chance to have two winning tickets if two of the key horses win, or three winning tickets if all three keys come in.
This key style of betting optimizes play for people making a serious attempt to focus on crushing these exotic wagers. This way of playing the Pick 3 and Pick 4 works best if you dedicate part of your bankroll specifically to this betand enough bankroll to last through long dry spells. Again, long breaks between successes are the norm, and without the proper funding are a sure way to go bust. Before you commit to the wager, make sure you have the capital.
Requirements for playing the Pick 3 and Pick 4:
- Avoid stringing together favorites, which plays the most over-bet combinations while still having a very small chance of winning. Even when you are right, you will not be rewarded for it.
- Avoid making lots of little bets on super-exotics; rather, focus on one big crusher in the win pool.
- Use the Pick 3 to augment play on a single best bet you already plan to wager on to win. For the Pick 4, use the bet to augment when best bets occupy two legs.
- Rather than playing all contenders from each leg on one ticket, play multiple tickets, each with a key horse singled in a particular leg.
Spur of the Moment fans: be sure to check out Dean Arnold's first handicapping book, A Bettor Way, on sale now through Xlibris Publishing and at most major online book sellers.
FANTASY VS. REALITY
The Pick 3 and Pick 4 are among the most popular exotic wagers at the track, but they are also among the most mis-played wagers. They are a great way to try and make a big score with a modest investment, but they are also a source of endless frustration if they arent played correctly.
Unless they are properly bet, they can become a steady drain on the players bankroll. Here are the realities and the fantasies that fuel these ever-popular wagers.
First off, the true odds of hitting three races in a row are very low. How low?
Lets suppose you pick three consecutive 2-1 shots. Each has a 33 percent chance to win. The math works out as follows: 0.33 x 0.33 x 0.33 = 0.0363.
Three 2-1 shots in a row has just a 3.63 percent chance of hitting. That means the Pick 3 combining these three low-priced horses has to pay almost 28-1, or $29 for a $1 betjust to pay fair value. Will you get that kind of payoff in a Pick 3 with three favorites? Not likely.
Extend this logic to the Pick 4, and the math works out as such: 0.33 x 0.33 x 0.33 x 0.33 = 0.01186.
A Pick 4 of 2-1 shots only has 1.186 percent chance of winning, so it would have to pay 85-1 to break even, or $86 for a $1 bet. Again, a Pick 4 with four favorites is not likely to pay enough to offer fair value.
Neither the Pick 3 or Pick 4 are good candidates for profit if your plan is to play just a few combinations of low-priced horses. Stringing together favorite after favorite leads to playing the most over-bet combinations, and still having a very small chance of winning, let alone making a score. And even when you are right, you are often not rewarded for itespecially after having to sweat through three or four races in a row.
On the other hand, playing a number of horses in each leg of the Pick 3 or Pick 4 will greatly increase the chances of hitting the wagerand if you can catch a long shot in the mix, then your payoff increases exponentially. Playing the top four contenders in each race might give the bettor an 80 percent chance of winning each leg. 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.8 = 0.512, so giving yourself an 80 percent chance to win each leg of a Pick 3 gives you a 51 percent chance of winning the wager.
The same math in the Pick 4 leaves you with a 40 percent chance of winning. Thats the good news. The bad news is the cost of the wager. A $1 4x4x4 ticket costs $64. A $1 4x4x4x4 ticket will run you $256. And if in any leg of the wager you dont feel you can cover 80 percent of the likely outcomes, youd need to add even more runners. Expenses for this kind of bet get rapidly out of control. Using all 12 runners in a wide-open maiden claiming race increases the Pick 4 ticket cost to $756. In this scenario, you will need to not only be correct, but also have a few long shots come in just to break even.
Most gamblers try to cut costs by singling a runner in one of the legs. If they choose to single a heavy favorite, they sacrifice their chances of getting a large payout. If they single a horse at higher odds, they significantly reduce their chances of winning.
Strangely enough, few exotic players wince at the notion of singling a horse that they would not place a large win bet on. The player who singles a horse in the Pick 4 can reduce his $256 ticket down to a $64 ticket (1x4x4x4=$64). This form of singling, however, is the equivalent of making a $64 win bet on your singlebut with no guarantee of cashing even if your single wins.
So you should always think about having separate win money down on your Pick 3 or Pick 4 single, just in case it wins and the rest of the ticket blows up. This way you can at least make a big score without having to depend on the outcome of the other races. The most unusual aspect of Pick 3 and Pick 4 play today is the publics willingness to make lots of little bets on super-exotics rather than one big crusher in the win pool.
So what is the best way to play these wagers? First, use them to augment play on a single best bet you already plan to wager on to win. If you have a 4-1 shot you love, and plan to wager, say, $50 on it to win, you can play it with 4 logical contenders in two legs of the Pick 3. For $16 in the Pick 3, you can have a 12.8 percent chance of cashing in on your best bet.
This kind of singling makes sense as a chance to greatly boost potential payoff without a great amount of additional wagering capital being put at risk. Pick 4s should only be bet in this fashion if two of the four legs include genuine best bets. Caution: Winning these kinds of plays regularly is a fantasy, so if you play them, be sure you are setting yourself up for a big score.
Also be prepared for siege warfare, with long breaks between successes. Hopefully the money laid off on the exotic plays does not negate profits from the win bets on the same top selections.
The second way to play these wagers is to play multiple tickets, each with a key horse singled in a particular leg. Rather than playing a $64 4x4x4 ticket, the player designates a key contender for each leg, and plays it in singles with the 4 contenders in each of the other two races. The three tickets are 1x4x4, 4x1x4, and 4x4x1. For $1, each of the three tickets costs $16, for a total of $48. Aside from costing $16 less than the single 4x4x4 ticket, it also gives the player a chance to have two winning tickets if two of the key horses win, or three winning tickets if all three keys come in.
This key style of betting optimizes play for people making a serious attempt to focus on crushing these exotic wagers. This way of playing the Pick 3 and Pick 4 works best if you dedicate part of your bankroll specifically to this betand enough bankroll to last through long dry spells. Again, long breaks between successes are the norm, and without the proper funding are a sure way to go bust. Before you commit to the wager, make sure you have the capital.
Requirements for playing the Pick 3 and Pick 4:
- Avoid stringing together favorites, which plays the most over-bet combinations while still having a very small chance of winning. Even when you are right, you will not be rewarded for it.
- Avoid making lots of little bets on super-exotics; rather, focus on one big crusher in the win pool.
- Use the Pick 3 to augment play on a single best bet you already plan to wager on to win. For the Pick 4, use the bet to augment when best bets occupy two legs.
- Rather than playing all contenders from each leg on one ticket, play multiple tickets, each with a key horse singled in a particular leg.
Spur of the Moment fans: be sure to check out Dean Arnold's first handicapping book, A Bettor Way, on sale now through Xlibris Publishing and at most major online book sellers.
Comments