Kentucky Derby Post Position Analysis
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Kentucky Derby Post Position Analysis (1975-2007)
Method: I didn'tt use the traditional but biased method of just listing the number of winners from each post without regard to how many horses actually started from each post. The proper method is to divide the number of winners from each post by the numbers of starters from that post. That gives a more accurate win % of the horses that actually started from a given post.
I also chose the last 33 runnings of the Derby (1975-2007) to give a balance of sample size with a representative sample of fairly current track conditions. I didn'tt chose all 100 plus runnings because the Churchill strip has changed dramatically over a period of so many years. The current track is really not identical to the 1975 surface either, but only looking at very recent running is just going to make the sample size too small, so a balance was struck. 1975 was about the beginning of the modern racing era and the Churchill strip has not changed significantly since then. Even so, in a separate analysis, I also combined the first 10 posts and the last 11 to get larger samples and smother results.
P.P. Starters Winners Win %
1 33 2 6.1
2 33 2 6.1
3 33 4 12.0
4 33 1 3.0
5 33 4 12.0
6 33 1 3.0
7 33 2 6.1
8 33 3 9.1
9 33 0 0.0
10 32 6 18.7
11 31 0 0.0
12 31 0 0.0
13 31 1 3.2
14 27 0 0.0
15 26 3 11.5
16 21 3 14.3
17 18 0 0.0
18 15 1 6.7
19 12 0 0.0
20 5 0 0.0
21 3 0 0.0
Now by Halves
P.P. Starters Winners Win%
1-10 313 25 8.0
11+ 211 8 3.8
Analysis: The inner posts have a clear advantage but, something interesting seems to happen when we get to the auxiliary gate - the win % stops dropping and actually bumps up, mainly at the first 2 posts in the auxiliary gate (15 and 16). Im guessing that the space between the 2 gates gives these horses more move to maneuver for position.
Method: I didn'tt use the traditional but biased method of just listing the number of winners from each post without regard to how many horses actually started from each post. The proper method is to divide the number of winners from each post by the numbers of starters from that post. That gives a more accurate win % of the horses that actually started from a given post.
I also chose the last 33 runnings of the Derby (1975-2007) to give a balance of sample size with a representative sample of fairly current track conditions. I didn'tt chose all 100 plus runnings because the Churchill strip has changed dramatically over a period of so many years. The current track is really not identical to the 1975 surface either, but only looking at very recent running is just going to make the sample size too small, so a balance was struck. 1975 was about the beginning of the modern racing era and the Churchill strip has not changed significantly since then. Even so, in a separate analysis, I also combined the first 10 posts and the last 11 to get larger samples and smother results.
P.P. Starters Winners Win %
1 33 2 6.1
2 33 2 6.1
3 33 4 12.0
4 33 1 3.0
5 33 4 12.0
6 33 1 3.0
7 33 2 6.1
8 33 3 9.1
9 33 0 0.0
10 32 6 18.7
11 31 0 0.0
12 31 0 0.0
13 31 1 3.2
14 27 0 0.0
15 26 3 11.5
16 21 3 14.3
17 18 0 0.0
18 15 1 6.7
19 12 0 0.0
20 5 0 0.0
21 3 0 0.0
Now by Halves
P.P. Starters Winners Win%
1-10 313 25 8.0
11+ 211 8 3.8
Analysis: The inner posts have a clear advantage but, something interesting seems to happen when we get to the auxiliary gate - the win % stops dropping and actually bumps up, mainly at the first 2 posts in the auxiliary gate (15 and 16). Im guessing that the space between the 2 gates gives these horses more move to maneuver for position.
Comments
http://www3.sympatico.ca/lino.c/Kentucky%20Derby%20Post%20Position%20Analysis%20-%201975-2007.doc
Kentucky Derby Winning Post Position Analysis