good read about the derby

warrantwarrant Banned
edited May 2008 in Horse Racing Forum
THIS COULD BE VERY UGLY



I will be watching my 52nd Kentucky Derby Saturday, having started when I was 8 years old as Iron Leige won the Run for the Roses in 1957. The glory of the “most exciting two minutes in sports” promises to be very ugly this year based on the scenario which has built up going into the race Saturday.



The stand-out favorite, Big Brown is owned by a group of New York investment bankers who want to take their company International Equine Acquisitions Holdings, Inc. public and run it like a hedge fund. What is worse is that their trainer is none other than Richard Dutrow, who has already been suspended from racing for illegal administration of drugs (as have trainers Todd Pletcher and Steve Asmussen who have horses in the race). Dutrow was quoted last week as saying “I have the best horse in the race. It is that simple…I don’t see how he can get beat.” “ I know there’s no one going into this race as good as he is right now. If he breaks clean, it’s a mismatch to me on paper.”

He has admitted he will make a big bet on Big Brown like the $ 160,000 he bet to win on Saint Liam in the 2005 Breeders Cup, for which he was rewarded with a $ 384,000 profit. I am sure every blueblood Kentuckian is praying for this New York syndicate to go down on Saturday but the fact of the matter is they have the best horse and perhaps the best horse by far.



For those who have read my Derby analysis over the years, you know I never pick favorites because that would be against my religion. Nonetheless, as hard as I have tried, I cannot get around Big Brown. Accordingly, what follows is my analysis of the key contenders, my prediction on the outcome and my betting strategy which will be modified this year and reduced because of the likelihood of Big Brown winning.



KEY CONTENDERS



Big Brown



I have seen some great performances in prep races but Big Brown’s devastating victory in the Florida Derby may just be the best. Prior to this I would rate Bellamy Road’s victory in the 2005 Wood Memorial and Sinister Minister’s victory in the 2006 Blue Grass Stakes as the best Derby prep performances in recent history. What all three have in common is that each horse sprinted 9 furlongs. Three-year olds should never attempt such a feat so early in the year and neither Bellamy Road nor Sinister Minister could recover from those performances. Bellamy Road had four weeks to recover from the Wood while Sinister Minister only three weeks from the Bluegrass. I have never forgotten the famous words of the late legendary trainer Angel Penna, who won more than 250 stake races in his 50 year career, when he said “don’t squeeze the lemon dry.”



The key question for the 2008 Kentucky Derby is whether Big Brown can differentiate himself from the previous two and has his lemon been squeezed dry. I think the two answers to these questions are yes and no. I watched the Florida Derby several times and he looks like he was just playing out there and had they gone around the track again he would have won by more. Moreover, he has had 5 weeks to recover from the Florida Derby and that extra time can be very critical. So is he a wonder horse or was that just a wonderful prep race? I don’t know the answer yet but what disappointed me was the defection of War pass from the race. I was l looking for a ton of speed to run alongside him and soften him for the stretch. The only real speed horse left is Bob Black Jack and to bet that Bob Black Jack will play the role of sacrificial lamb is a risk. I think Big Brown has the ability to sprint 10 furlongs and open up a commanding lead and stay there. I am not saying he is a great horse and will go on to win the Triple Crown. He may be a wreck in two weeks at the Preakness. But I do believe he has been primed for a superior effort on Saturday and will deliver. His physical presence matches his undefeated record and when he arrived in Louisville Tuesday and went out to the track for the first time, TV commentator Jeff Siegel said it was like being on the playground with the kids and having Shaq O’Neal show up. Everybody just stopped and gawked. One person thought he might stand up on two legs and pound his chest like King Kong. I should also add that despite the extreme arrogance of Richard Dutrow, he is a very capable horseman and knows how to get a horse ready for a big race.



Can Big Brown lose? Of course. After all, history is going against him since the last horse to win the Derby off only three lifetime starts was the filly Regret in 1915. In addition, he can get a horrible trip, get injured or perhaps he hasn’t recovered from the Florida Derby. As important, maybe the karma of the world rooting against him and his New York team will work. So let’s analyze the other key contenders.



Colonel John



There are a lot of Colonel John fans among professional handicappers and while I like him, I am not as high as most. He is certainly a nice horse, considered number 2 of the big 3 and his blistering workout Sunday morning indicates he is ready. I just wish his Santa Anita Derby score was by a larger margin since only 1 ½ lengths separated the first three finishers. Nonetheless, he has the perfect closing style and if Corey Nakatani does not encounter traffic problems, I expect him to be there at the finish. He is bred for the classic distance and Eoin Harty has Derby experience. I am not the least bit concerned about the fact that he has never run on dirt. What I have learned about the synthetic tracks is that you can switch from synthetic to dirt with relative ease but not vice versa. We will use Colonel John in exactas.



Tale of Ekati and Court Vision



I have trouble with all the horses coming out of the Wood Memorial. After all, they finished the last 3 furlongs in 40.45 seconds. I studied comparable times on the Aqueduct card that day and the final running time of 152.2 is too slow. I cannot endorse Tale of Ekati but I will use Court Vision for two reasons. Firstly, I always root for Bill Mott (even though this horse is owned by the same group that owns Big Brown). Secondly, he put on blinkers after the Wood and has worked like a bear. Maybe the equipment change was all he needed to jump a few levels up on the ability ladder. We will use Court Vision in exactas.



Gayego and Z Fortune. Monba and Cowboy Cal



The first duo ran 1:2 in the Arkansas Derby on April 12th and looked good doing so. The second duo ran 1:2 in the Blue Grass on the same day. However, I believe the weak breed of today is unable to recover from a tough effort with only 3 weeks of rest and I am eliminating all four of them.



Pyro



Pyro is the third member of the big 3 and I have yet to figure him out. To be honest I wasn’t high on him before he flopped in the Blue Grass because he has never achieved a speed rating of 90. I don’t know how he earned a 105 Beyer either in the BC Juvenile. Nonetheless, I will excuse his Blue Grass because it was on synthetic and throw him in a few bets because when in doubt it is best to include rather than exclude.





Z Humor



Not a big fan and not betting.



Adriano



The fact that Edgar Prado had his choice of mounts and chose Adriano is important. However he flopped in the Fountain of Youth which was his only race on dirt. I wish I saw some evidence that he relishes a dirt track but just because Graham Motion has had him in Churchill the longest with the most preparation I will throw him in some exactas.



Smooth Air



He had a temperature over the weekend and lost a day or two of training. I liked him before this sickness but have to drop him from consideration now because you have to grasp at every negative you can to try to widdle down your betting interests.



Anak Nakal



Very sharp workouts on a track he likes after winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last October. Although his record in 2008 is dismal, he has a solid rider and I may consider using him in exotics.



Eight Belles



I know three fillies have won this race and I know physically she is as big as the boys. My rule is not to bet fillies against colts unless they are sprinting as 2-year olds or running on grass if older. She doesn’t qualify under either scenario and I am sticking with my rule.



Visionaire and Big Truck



I have great respect for Michael Matz but Visionaire seems a cut below the rest of the group. Big Truck peaked in the Tampa Bay Derby. He doesn’t look like he belongs either.



Bob Black Jack and Denis of Cork





If you like Colonel John you have to give some respect to Bob Black Jack who he beat by a half-length in the Santa Anita Derby. The question for Bob Black Jack is whether he can run 10 furlongs. Denis of Cork may be the buzz horse or “wise-guy” horse this week. Rumor is he has never looked or worked better. I will probably use both in exotics.



Cool Coal Man



Do you remember the name Nick Zito ? You know the guy who had 5 horses in the 2005 Derby including the overwhelming favorite Bellamy Road and none of the 5 hit the board. Incidentally that Derby week he actually gave a press conference to reporters while standing on a soapbox outside the barn. He is the same guy who trained juvenile champ War Pass who was the favorite until he was injured a few weeks ago. My, how quickly everybody forgets. Well I have a theory about Zito and it goes like this. War Pass and Cool Coal Man are owned by the same man, Robert LaPenta. I think all along they intended for War Pass to be the rabbit for Cool Coal Man who was their hidden

# 1 star. His race in the Fountain of Youth was fantastic and if you are going to excuse Pyro’s Blue Grass you have to excuse his also. After the Fountain of Youth, second place finisher Elysium Fields was so exhausted he got off the Triple Crown trail. Cool Coal man bounced at Keeneland and I am chalking that up to his exhaustive effort at Gulfstream coupled with the synthetic surface. Just when everybody forgets about Zito he could bounce up and bite everyone. Cool Coal man will be a key play for me.



Recapturetheglory





Recapturetheglory will be the other key play of the day for me. I like the horse and love his connections. I was very impressed with his performance in the Illinois Derby. Look at these fractions for the 9 furlongs: 12; 12; 12.1; 12.2; 12.1; 12; 12; 12; 12.1. You can’t get more consistent and I watched the replay of the race 6 times to follow his finishing action. ET Baird hit him 9 times inside the 3/16th pole but not with punishment but more to keep his mind on business and following through. When he crossed the wire he had something left in the tank. Most professional handicappers don’t like his chances. They think he was helped a lot by an inside speed bias at Hawthorne that day and 48 3/5th for the first half-mile was too slow compared to what he will have to put out to stay near Big Brown. I am always respectful of horses who win pole to pole and pull away in the stretch and I spend less time worrying about the time and more concentrating on how easily they ran. I can assure you Recapturetheglory is an improving horse who I hope is on the verge of a career effort. For those of you who are historians, go back and look at the form on Proud Citizen who ran 2nd in the 2002 Kentucky Derby. His preparation by Wayne Lukas was exactly the same as what Louis Roussel has done for Recapturetheglory.



Louis Roussel trains and also owns Racapturetheglory with Ronnie Lamarque. They have been to the Derby before with Risen Star in 1988. A wide trip cost him the race and ultimately the triple crown since he went on to win the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. According to Andy Beyer’s report in the Racing Form on Wednesday, Roussel, who also practices law, dropped out of training in 2004 due to three back and neck surgeries. He returned this winter and sports a small 3-horse stable. Lamarque is even more interesting. He is a self-made man who got wealthy in the automobile business. Five years after Risen Star’s fame in 1993, in the midst of a bad divorce, his estranged wife and a few of her relatives plotted to kill him but they botched the job by hiring a hit man who was a police informant. All’s well that ends well and according to Beyer he is happily remarried now.



Roussel and Lamarque are two swashbuckling characters from the Bayou and if Kentucky is the land of bourbon and horse racing, they will fit in perfectly.



Pretty or Ugly



If we have a pretty picture at the end of the day Saturday, Roussel and Lamarque will be in the winners circle and Recapturetheglory will have sprung a major upset, winning for a man who should have been dead if his wife were more efficient. Recapturetheglory will have recaptured the glory of Risen Star two decades ago for two old veteran horsemen who have paid their dues for many years. It would be a classic tale of American racing folklore.



If we have an ugly ending Saturday the New York Wall Street syndicate will be raising the heavy metal in the winners circle while Richard Dutrow crows for weeks about how wonderful a training job he did and how much money he made betting the horse. The Wall Streeters will also be passing out subscription documents at Churchill for the Big Brown IPO which will be priced just underneath the price Google fetched when it went public. That will be a sad ending and one that may drive me to change my hobby to bingo.



The Undercard



I have three friends who are separately attending the Derby Saturday. Kenny from Westwood, Massachusetts, Teddy from Lynnfield, Massachusetts and Willie from Dublin, Ireland. Willie is a fellow horse owner who races jumpers throughout Ireland. The difference between Willie and me is that Willie has been successful and his horses actually win. For you three lads I would recommend paying attention to two jockeys on Saturday: Calvin Borel and Julien Leparoux. Through the first 4 days of the Churchill meet they are outsmarting and outriding everybody and you will get your moneys-worth backing their mounts on the undercard. I am playing both of them in the Derby also.



Betting Strategy



My bet on the race will be structured and will cost $ 200. It will consist of win bets and exactas. In the exactas I am purposely not boxing the big three because everybody else will be and besides, if that combination comes in it will be the smallest payoff possible. This bet gives you lots of action because 10 horses in the field are covered.



Here it is with the numbers representing the post positions:

Cost

$ 6 Exactas with Big Brown

20 over 1,3,4,13,15,16,18 $ 42





$ 4 Exactas with Colonel John

10 over 1,3,4,13,15,16,18 $ 28





$ 2 Exactas with Pyro

9 over 1.3.4.13.15.16.18 $ 14





Longshot $ 1 Exacta Box

1,3,4,13,15,16,18 $ 42





$ 20 to Win on Cool Coal Man and Recapturetheglory

1 and 18 $ 40





$ 8 to Win on Court Vision, Bob Black Jack and

Denis of Cork

4, 13 and 16 $ 24





$ 5 to Win on Anak Nakal and Adrianno

3 and 15 $ 10



Total $200





Best of luck to everybody and I hope your horse comes in !
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