"NO" on the Big Brown Triple Crown (-130)
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Clearly he has a big shot. Talent isn't a problem, and he doesn't appear to have any distance limitations to speak of. That being said, the odds are against him. The problem (as i see it) is that Big Brown has been a tough horse to hold together health-wise, and now he's being asked to run back just 2 weeks after an especially demanding race. And if he's successful, then AGAIN just 3 weeks later. To this point, Big Brown has never had less than 5 weeks between any of his races. So i'm not sure how his problematic feet are going to react to that. It's possible he could develop another quarter crack, due to all the additional stress. There's also the possibilty he could simply get beat, whether it's in the Preakness or the Belmont. The Preakness field has some definite quality, nevermind the fact that the media will harp on it's lack of Derby starters. There was also a very pertinent development yesterday afternoon, which i'll address in a moment. Based on post-time odds (i'm assuming 1/2 in the Preakness, and 1/5 in the Belmont if he makes it that far), it translates to roughly even-money on the 2-race parlay. That doesn't mean he's even-money to pull it off though. I think he's probably closer to 3/1.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I've seen this prop in a couple of places, one of which had no disclaimer and a sheet that read "all bets are action". The other place had a disclaimer that Big Brown "must start in the Preakness for action". Same price at both places (-130), so obviously you don't want the Preakness disclaimer if you can avoid it.
Regarding the new development i spoke of, there's a bona-fide challenger on the Belmont scene after yesterday's Peter Pan Stakes. It's a Japanese colt named Casino Drive, and amazingly, his two siblings (Jazil and Rags to Riches) have won the last two runnings of the Belmont. Here's an article about his performance yesterday:
Casino Drive Spectacular in Peter Pan
by Jason Shandler
Updated: May 10, 2008
Should Big Brown go on to take the May 17 Preakness Stakes (gr. I), for the fourth time this decade Thoroughbred racing fans will be buzzing over a possibility of the first Triple Crown winner in 30 years.
On May 10 at Belmont Park, North America got its first look at the colt who could have the best chance at spoiling Big Browns entry into racing immortality, as Japanese invader Casino Drive blew away eight challengers to win the $200,000 Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) (VIDEO) in sensational fashion.
Under a patient ride from Kent Desormeaux, Casino Drive stalked the pace, split horses coming out of the final turn, and drew clear in the stretch to win by 5 3/4 commanding lengths. The son of Mineshaft completed the 1 1/8 miles on the dirt in 1:47.87.
Ironically, if Casino Drive does enter the June 7 Belmont Stakes (gr. I), he will likely need a new rider. Assuming Big Brown wins the Preakness, Desormeaux will undoubtedly be aboard the son of Boundary, who won the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) May 3.
Casino Drive was making only his second lifetime start in the Peter Pan. He made his racing debut Feb. 23 in Japan at Kyoto, romping to an 11 1/2-length score in a nine-furlong event. The chestnut colt is owned by Japanese business mogul Hidetoshi Yamamoto, and is trained by Kazuo Fujisawa.
Casino Drive, who was bred in Kentucky by Shell Bloodstock, is out of the Deputy Minister mare Better Than Honour. He will have history on his side in the Belmont, as Better Than Honour produced the last two winners of the Classic--Jazil and Rags to Riches. A.P. Indy, 1992 Horse of the Year and the sire of Mineshaft, also won the Belmont.
Yamamoto purchased Casino Drive for $950,000 at the Keeneland 2006 September yearling sale.
In the Peter Pan, Casino Drive settled into third through the backstretch after breaking slowly, content to let Mint Lane set the early pace. Casino Drives stablemate, Spark Candle, pressed the leader, setting the table perfectly for the eventual winner.
Mint Lane posted fractions of :23.08, :46.31, and 1:10.47 for six furlongs. Ridden by Eibar Coa, the son of Maria's Mon was still going well as he came out of the turn, while Golden Spikes also moved into contention. But Desormeaux asked Casino Drive for more along the turn, and the talented colt split the two leaders with ease before they straightened away.
Casino Drive took over before the 3/16 pole and drew clear with every stride.
I certainly understand how Jazil and Rags to Riches won the Belmont, Desormeaux said. Yeah, he can run a lot. Its going to be fun. Hes a phenomenal talent, and weve got our hands full with this one. Its going to be ultimately exciting for all of the fans. Hes got that stride.
Fujisawa, who commented through a translator, said: He ran very good, in spite of it being so long since his last start. I think he will be getting better from now on, and I look forward to his next race--the Belmont Stakes.
Mint Lane held on for second at odds of 18-1, a half-length in front of Readys Echo, who closed well from last. Going off as the 7-5 favorite, Casino Drive paid $4.50, $3.90, and $2.80. The exacta (1-3) was worth $66.50, while the trifecta (1-3-6) returned $225.50.
Golden Spikes finished fourth, followed by Cosmic, Spark Candle, Tomcito, Deputyville, and Fast Talking.
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IMPORTANT NOTE: I've seen this prop in a couple of places, one of which had no disclaimer and a sheet that read "all bets are action". The other place had a disclaimer that Big Brown "must start in the Preakness for action". Same price at both places (-130), so obviously you don't want the Preakness disclaimer if you can avoid it.
Regarding the new development i spoke of, there's a bona-fide challenger on the Belmont scene after yesterday's Peter Pan Stakes. It's a Japanese colt named Casino Drive, and amazingly, his two siblings (Jazil and Rags to Riches) have won the last two runnings of the Belmont. Here's an article about his performance yesterday:
Casino Drive Spectacular in Peter Pan
by Jason Shandler
Updated: May 10, 2008
Should Big Brown go on to take the May 17 Preakness Stakes (gr. I), for the fourth time this decade Thoroughbred racing fans will be buzzing over a possibility of the first Triple Crown winner in 30 years.
On May 10 at Belmont Park, North America got its first look at the colt who could have the best chance at spoiling Big Browns entry into racing immortality, as Japanese invader Casino Drive blew away eight challengers to win the $200,000 Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) (VIDEO) in sensational fashion.
Under a patient ride from Kent Desormeaux, Casino Drive stalked the pace, split horses coming out of the final turn, and drew clear in the stretch to win by 5 3/4 commanding lengths. The son of Mineshaft completed the 1 1/8 miles on the dirt in 1:47.87.
Ironically, if Casino Drive does enter the June 7 Belmont Stakes (gr. I), he will likely need a new rider. Assuming Big Brown wins the Preakness, Desormeaux will undoubtedly be aboard the son of Boundary, who won the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) May 3.
Casino Drive was making only his second lifetime start in the Peter Pan. He made his racing debut Feb. 23 in Japan at Kyoto, romping to an 11 1/2-length score in a nine-furlong event. The chestnut colt is owned by Japanese business mogul Hidetoshi Yamamoto, and is trained by Kazuo Fujisawa.
Casino Drive, who was bred in Kentucky by Shell Bloodstock, is out of the Deputy Minister mare Better Than Honour. He will have history on his side in the Belmont, as Better Than Honour produced the last two winners of the Classic--Jazil and Rags to Riches. A.P. Indy, 1992 Horse of the Year and the sire of Mineshaft, also won the Belmont.
Yamamoto purchased Casino Drive for $950,000 at the Keeneland 2006 September yearling sale.
In the Peter Pan, Casino Drive settled into third through the backstretch after breaking slowly, content to let Mint Lane set the early pace. Casino Drives stablemate, Spark Candle, pressed the leader, setting the table perfectly for the eventual winner.
Mint Lane posted fractions of :23.08, :46.31, and 1:10.47 for six furlongs. Ridden by Eibar Coa, the son of Maria's Mon was still going well as he came out of the turn, while Golden Spikes also moved into contention. But Desormeaux asked Casino Drive for more along the turn, and the talented colt split the two leaders with ease before they straightened away.
Casino Drive took over before the 3/16 pole and drew clear with every stride.
I certainly understand how Jazil and Rags to Riches won the Belmont, Desormeaux said. Yeah, he can run a lot. Its going to be fun. Hes a phenomenal talent, and weve got our hands full with this one. Its going to be ultimately exciting for all of the fans. Hes got that stride.
Fujisawa, who commented through a translator, said: He ran very good, in spite of it being so long since his last start. I think he will be getting better from now on, and I look forward to his next race--the Belmont Stakes.
Mint Lane held on for second at odds of 18-1, a half-length in front of Readys Echo, who closed well from last. Going off as the 7-5 favorite, Casino Drive paid $4.50, $3.90, and $2.80. The exacta (1-3) was worth $66.50, while the trifecta (1-3-6) returned $225.50.
Golden Spikes finished fourth, followed by Cosmic, Spark Candle, Tomcito, Deputyville, and Fast Talking.
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Comments
Casino Drive was impressive, I just loved his stride going down the backstretch.
by Steve Haskin
Updated: May 12, 2008
Big Browns task just got a little or a lot easier with the decision of Harlem Rockers owner Frank Stronach to bypass Saturdays Preakness Stakes (gr. I) and await the $1-million Queens Plate at Woodbine June 22.
After winning his first three career starts impressively, including a decisive victory in the Withers Stakes (gr. II), Harlem Rocker was expected to take on Big Brown, runaway winner of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I), in the second leg of the Triple Crown. The son of Macho Uno likely would have been the second choice and seemed to have the best chance to upset the Derby winner.
We really believe the horse has a bright future, and (Mr. Stronach) decided to take a step back right now, Adena Springs Farm managaer Dan Hall said. Our next main objective will be the Queens Plate. Todd (Pletcher) is very high on the horse and wanted to run him in the Preakness, but we almost always take the conservative approach, so were going to be patient and stick to our program.
Now, with Harlem Rocker out of the picture, as well as the Kentucky Derby fifth-place finisher Recapturetheglory, who ran an excellent race after throwing his rider in the tunnel and pressing the early pace, Big Brown stands out even more against 11 possible opponents who will have to improve in leaps and bounds in order to be competitive with the son of Boundary.
The one horse who could step up and pose the biggest threat to Big Brown is Kentucky Bear, who will be making only his fourth career start in the Preakness. The son of Mr. Greeley is coming off a big effort in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I), finishing a solid third. Another colt who could be any kind is Coolmore Lexington (gr. II) winner Behindatthebar, whose best races have come on synthetic surfaces. In his only dirt appearance he finished fifth in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III).
Other probable Preakness starters are Giant Moon, Hey Byrn, Icabad Crane, Macho Again, Racecar Rhapsody, Riley Tucker, Stevil, Tres Borrachos, and Yankee Bravo.