My Preakness Break Down
Duckgawd
Senior Member
For saturday's Grade 1 Preakness $1 Million 1 3/16th
#1Macho Again: This horse coming off his victory in the Derby Trial which went 7F and got his best speed fig of 99, 3 wins from 8 starts, and none were 2 turns, I have a couple question marks about this one, first the distance, bread to go the distance but hasn't shown any ability, also the lack of good competetion.... He came on late in the trial so maybe a use underneath for some exotic plays.
#2 Tres Borrachos: Here is the first of many horses who have only won one race, thier Maiden, I think he is one of the best if not the best of this category (Only 1 win) he has a couple of game 3rds and his maiden win came at a distance, Another big positive for this one is a big jump in number with the switch to dirt track with speed figs in the 90's! He is a close to the pace running style but i dont hink he will be on the lead here, just off the pace and if he is game will have a chance late. Deffinlty like him in the exotics.
#3 Icebad Crane: The only horse to win over the track with a rating of 87, in the derby most cross off any without a 100 speed fig, this one doesnt even break 90. But I wouldnt be so quick to cross this one off, he is deffintly bread to go the distance, has the highest rating at 408, this will be his first graded stakes and his 5th race, he is a colt that has a nose for winning 3 wins from 4 starts, and I think Rose is a strong jockey for this race, Deffintly would use in exotics.
#4 Yankee Bravo: Coming out of some good graded races, last one out west, and he to has no speed fig higher then 89, This one likes to sit back early, not a good front runner, this horse will definlty be coming late but will he be too far back is the question, 13 horse field, I still dont think i would want to be too far back, There are some pace horses but like the derby to get the good ones, you will need to be close. I would only use for 3rd if at all....
#5 Behindatthebar: Passed on the Derby for this spot, coming in with some rest but this horse is considered a Synthetic horse for a reason, all 3 wins coming over the synthetic. Does have a nice beyer of 99, but can this be duplicated on the dirt track? only race over the dirt was an 87, I think this one might get some play but I dont like much about this one for the preakness.
#6 Racecar Rhapsody: Another with only 1 win, Another closer, I think this one will be in the back of the pack early, and if there is a hot pace might be able to run on late, only win coming at 6 1/2 F and his 2 turn races have not been good at all with all 4th place finish which isnt too bad in graded company but this is a G1 with a couple super horses... Dont like this one.
#7 Big Brown: I dont think I need to say more, Kentucky Derby winner, Heavy Fav. Deffinlty the horse to beat, dont see many reasons why he wont get the job done, Only question here is the short rest, hasnt had this at all in his short career but word is he is doing great and connections already looking for the big pay day with breeding rights. ( I will try to beat, but do like this one a lot)
#8 Kentucky Bear: A lot of hype for this horse, why I dont know, Another 1 win horse but only 3 starts, over came a little adversity last time out with a troubled start and game for 3rd. Would use in exotics, not too much of a threat.
#9 Stevil: Another 1 win horse, with that win coming at 6 1/2F a 5th and a 4th in graded company, not much to say about this one, dont like much at all.
#10 Riley Tucker: Another 1 win horse coming at 5 1/2F, I do like the running style, close to the pace and stays up. might be better on the synthetic with a nice bump in speed fig, but i would use this one for value, i think will be sitting 5th or so and has the chance of getting up for some dough.
#11 Giant Moon: A lot people talking highly on this one too, but coming off a 4th and a 9th and then 2 wins on the inner track of the Big A where speed holds up, i think this one is going to be sent early but dont think will hold on, Might be able to hold for 3rd but just dont see how he can beat some others in this race.
#12 Gayego: Was no factor in the derby, i think partly due to the far outside post, again drawn on the outside but 12 isnt bad, Im again going to think he will be up toward the pace, sitting 2nd or 3rd, I think he has the class and style to run this kind of race, would deffinlty think he has the potential for a nice stretch run with Big Brown. would have to say he would be the one to use if going to try to beat Big Brown but both coming off 2 weeks rest and might be a little fatigued.
#13 Hey Byrn: Coming off a nice win in the Holy Bull, Did lose to Big Brown but I crossed that at with the early trouble, Should be close to the pace sitting 3rd or 4th maybe behind Giant Moon, Big Brown and Gayego. and we know he can get the distance since he won at it. Would Deffinlty use this one in exotic wagers!
I dont have my wagering strategy yet but will post it.....
Contenders: Big Brown, Gayego, Hey Bryn and Icebad Crane
#1Macho Again: This horse coming off his victory in the Derby Trial which went 7F and got his best speed fig of 99, 3 wins from 8 starts, and none were 2 turns, I have a couple question marks about this one, first the distance, bread to go the distance but hasn't shown any ability, also the lack of good competetion.... He came on late in the trial so maybe a use underneath for some exotic plays.
#2 Tres Borrachos: Here is the first of many horses who have only won one race, thier Maiden, I think he is one of the best if not the best of this category (Only 1 win) he has a couple of game 3rds and his maiden win came at a distance, Another big positive for this one is a big jump in number with the switch to dirt track with speed figs in the 90's! He is a close to the pace running style but i dont hink he will be on the lead here, just off the pace and if he is game will have a chance late. Deffinlty like him in the exotics.
#3 Icebad Crane: The only horse to win over the track with a rating of 87, in the derby most cross off any without a 100 speed fig, this one doesnt even break 90. But I wouldnt be so quick to cross this one off, he is deffintly bread to go the distance, has the highest rating at 408, this will be his first graded stakes and his 5th race, he is a colt that has a nose for winning 3 wins from 4 starts, and I think Rose is a strong jockey for this race, Deffintly would use in exotics.
#4 Yankee Bravo: Coming out of some good graded races, last one out west, and he to has no speed fig higher then 89, This one likes to sit back early, not a good front runner, this horse will definlty be coming late but will he be too far back is the question, 13 horse field, I still dont think i would want to be too far back, There are some pace horses but like the derby to get the good ones, you will need to be close. I would only use for 3rd if at all....
#5 Behindatthebar: Passed on the Derby for this spot, coming in with some rest but this horse is considered a Synthetic horse for a reason, all 3 wins coming over the synthetic. Does have a nice beyer of 99, but can this be duplicated on the dirt track? only race over the dirt was an 87, I think this one might get some play but I dont like much about this one for the preakness.
#6 Racecar Rhapsody: Another with only 1 win, Another closer, I think this one will be in the back of the pack early, and if there is a hot pace might be able to run on late, only win coming at 6 1/2 F and his 2 turn races have not been good at all with all 4th place finish which isnt too bad in graded company but this is a G1 with a couple super horses... Dont like this one.
#7 Big Brown: I dont think I need to say more, Kentucky Derby winner, Heavy Fav. Deffinlty the horse to beat, dont see many reasons why he wont get the job done, Only question here is the short rest, hasnt had this at all in his short career but word is he is doing great and connections already looking for the big pay day with breeding rights. ( I will try to beat, but do like this one a lot)
#8 Kentucky Bear: A lot of hype for this horse, why I dont know, Another 1 win horse but only 3 starts, over came a little adversity last time out with a troubled start and game for 3rd. Would use in exotics, not too much of a threat.
#9 Stevil: Another 1 win horse, with that win coming at 6 1/2F a 5th and a 4th in graded company, not much to say about this one, dont like much at all.
#10 Riley Tucker: Another 1 win horse coming at 5 1/2F, I do like the running style, close to the pace and stays up. might be better on the synthetic with a nice bump in speed fig, but i would use this one for value, i think will be sitting 5th or so and has the chance of getting up for some dough.
#11 Giant Moon: A lot people talking highly on this one too, but coming off a 4th and a 9th and then 2 wins on the inner track of the Big A where speed holds up, i think this one is going to be sent early but dont think will hold on, Might be able to hold for 3rd but just dont see how he can beat some others in this race.
#12 Gayego: Was no factor in the derby, i think partly due to the far outside post, again drawn on the outside but 12 isnt bad, Im again going to think he will be up toward the pace, sitting 2nd or 3rd, I think he has the class and style to run this kind of race, would deffinlty think he has the potential for a nice stretch run with Big Brown. would have to say he would be the one to use if going to try to beat Big Brown but both coming off 2 weeks rest and might be a little fatigued.
#13 Hey Byrn: Coming off a nice win in the Holy Bull, Did lose to Big Brown but I crossed that at with the early trouble, Should be close to the pace sitting 3rd or 4th maybe behind Giant Moon, Big Brown and Gayego. and we know he can get the distance since he won at it. Would Deffinlty use this one in exotic wagers!
I dont have my wagering strategy yet but will post it.....
Contenders: Big Brown, Gayego, Hey Bryn and Icebad Crane