Anyone have the Wizard's Stakes package?
bbixler
Senior Member
Please post if you come across it....he's due for a big weekend!
Thanks! :drinking:
G1 TEST, G1 J.C. MABEE, WEST VIRGINIA DERBY, & CLAIMING CROWN JEWEL: Selections, analysis, and wagering strategies for ALL FOUR races
Thanks! :drinking:
G1 TEST, G1 J.C. MABEE, WEST VIRGINIA DERBY, & CLAIMING CROWN JEWEL: Selections, analysis, and wagering strategies for ALL FOUR races
Comments
Saratoga Race 9 - DARLEY TEST S.
Saratoga Race 9 - DARLEY TEST S. 7f Grade I 3yo Fillies, Purse: $250,000. ( 5:14)/ 4:14/ 3:14/ 2:14 Post Time: 5:14 ET
Race Synopsis
The contention in this year's G1 Test doesn't seem to run nearly as deep as in most years, with only a few legitimate G1 horses in the field. As usual in this race, the pace projects to be fast and furious, with Akronism and Dream Rush being the most likely pair to be winging out on the lead. The track has played fairly to speed horses and closers most days, which would give some horses from off the pace a legitimate chance at a win if those two go too fast up front.
The Field from the rail out
# Name ML
2 SILVER KNOCKERS 10/1
3 AKRONISM 12/1
4 ASTOR PARK 20/1
5 DOWN 20/1
6 DEBBIE GOT EVEN 20/1
1 BARONESS THATCHER 10/1
7 DREAM RUSH 2/1
8 TIME'S MISTRESS 10/1
9 SHEETS 6/1
10 BOCA GRANDE 15/1
1A HIGH AGAIN 10/1
11 APPEALING ZOPHIE 15/1
12 COTTON BLOSSOM 9/2
First Selection: (7) DREAM RUSH (Violette Richard Jr/Coa E M)
Dream Rush has done nothing wrong thus far while showing steady progress to become the best female sprinter of her generation. Her G2 win in the Nassau in her only prior start at this 7F distance was spectacular, although the field she beat was suspect. When she got caught by Cotton Blossom and lost at odds of 3-5 in the Acorn on June 9, some might have questioned her real ability, but the pace in that race was just too fast at a mile, even for her, and she wasn't caught until very late in another extremely impressive performance. She got her G1 win last time out in the Prioress at 6F, where she was able to draw off despite the killer speed duel that she engaged in. I envision the same type of performance today, where she duels outside of Akronism, gets clear by mid-stretch, then has enough in the tank to hold on for the win. She put in a stellar work over this track July 23, then followed it up with an easy breeze on July 28, and all systems are 'go' for another dazzling performance.
Second Selection: (12) COTTON BLOSSOM (Pletcher Todd A/Velazquez J R)
Showed a definite fondness for this racetrack last year at age 2 when she won the G3 Schuylerville at 6F, then finished 2nd in the G1 Spinaway at today's 7F distance. She hasn't been particularly consistent this year as a 3yo, but if she runs back to her victory in the G1 Acorn on June 9 then she could win today as well. In that race she used her long strides to catch Dream Rush very late, and those two were far ahead of the rest of the field. The pace will be similarly fast again today, but 7F may not be enough distance for her to catch Dream Rush this time, and there's always the question of what happened in the G2 Delaware Oaks last time out, where she finished a distant 3rd at odds of 6-5. Talented but inconsistent, this filly is the most probable upsetter of Dream Rush, but she'll also have to deal with a potential wide trip from the outermost post.
Third Selection: (5) DOWN (Frankel Robert J/Prado E S)
This filly is certainly the wildcard of the race. She has just a maiden win to her credit, yet she should have won the G1 Hollywood Starlet last year, a race where she was probably 4 lengths the best. Unfortunately, her inexperience cost her that day, as she broke very slowly, was dead last of 12 to the far turn, then had to circle 6-wide into the lane while commencing a rally that saw her circle almost the entire field. It's that late kick that gives her an outside shot today if she gets a hotly contested pace in front of her. Bobby Frankel doesn't enter horses in G1 races without good reason, and this is the second time that he's running this filly in a G1 race. Edgar Prado got a good feel for her and her strong late kick in her maiden win last time out and should be able to time her rally for optimum effectiveness.
Fourth Selection: (9) SHEETS (Smith Thomas V/Borel C H)
Stalker could sit the right trip and be one of the first to make a run at Dream Rush if that filly tires. Sheets comes off her first graded stakes win in her first graded stakes try, beating a very good field in the slop at Calder. The pace of that race was blazing and she was sitting right off the flanks of the leaders before drawing away impressively. She might have been helped by the slop, but then again, it might have been another forward move in the progression that she's been showing all year. She's dangerous if she improves any further, but her lack of any published works over this track is a bit of a concern.
Wagering Strategy
Dream Rush will probably be too short a price to place a Win wager on, but if she wins there could be lots of value in the exotics in a field where anyone could get up for 3rd, or even 2nd.
* Exacta 7-12, reverse for half as much
* Smaller exacta 7-5, reverse for half as much
* Trifecta: 7 over 5-9-12 over ALL = $30 for a $1 wager
* Trifecta: 7 over ALL over 5-9-12 = $30 for a $1 wager
* A small saver Win bet on (5)DOWN at odds of 10-1 or higher.
Mountaineer Race 8 - WEST VIRGINIA DERBY
Mountaineer Race 8 - WEST VIRGINIA DERBY 1 1/8m Grade III 3yo, Purse: $750,000. ( 5:43)/ 4:43/ 3:43/ 2:43 Post Time: 5:43 ET
Race Synopsis
Slews Tizzy, Song of Navarone, and possibly Norjac are expected to vie for the early lead, with Sam P., Moyers Pond, and Zanjero tracking the early pacesetters. Delightful Kiss will be able to see them all as the field makes their way down the backstretch.
The Field from the rail out
# Name ML
1 SAM P. 5/1
2 DR GOOGLES BOOGLES 20/1
3 MOYER'S POND 10/1
4 NORJAC 30/1
5 SLEW'S TIZZY 6/1
6 DELIGHTFUL KISS 9/2
7 SONG OF NAVARONE 12/1
8 DOMINICAN 4/1
9 ZANJERO 3/1
10 BWANA BULL 8/1
First Selection: (9) ZANJERO (Asmussen Steven M/Bridgmohan S X)
Zanjero has not won in quite some time. And, while some of that has been because of his accord, he also has faced some of the iron of the three-year-old division this spring. In his most recent effort at Churchill Downs, he indicated that he is poised to get back on the winning track with a sharp second-place finish. In a race he obviously needed, Zanjero dispensed a strong move leaving the far turn to make the lead in the stretch, only to subsequently drift out under pressure. He grudgingly relinquished the lead in the final yards. The Steve Asmussen trained runner should have derived beneficial conditioning as a result of that effort, and he has trained forwardly at Saratoga since his much-improved showing off a well-deserved break. He is clearly a runner who needs his rally timed to perfection, and although he has won but twice in his career, jockey Shaun Bridgmohan has been aboard each time. Zanjero draws a good outside post and continues to drop weight. He has enough tactical speed to sit the right kind of trip, which may finally be enough to land him back in the winners circle.
Second Selection: (3) MOYER'S POND (Reinstedler Anthony/Guidry M)
Although he has come short in both starts since elevated to graded stakes competition, Moyers Pond has acquitted himself well on both occasions. A perfect example of that would be his runner-up finish in the Grade 2 Ohio Derby at Thistledowns on June 2. Exhibiting an improved turn of early foot, the grandson of Monarchos finished with good energy late after chasing a lively pace while stretching out to nine furlongs. While he was no match for the late running Delightful Kiss in the stretch, he nevertheless ran very well in defeat. Should he be able to continue his forward level of this progression, Moyers Pond might not only be capable of an in-the-money finish, but might just be able to come away with the top prize. He should be able to lay close to modest fractions from his inside post, and gets an upgrade in riders to Mark Guidry. A recent near-bullet work at Churchill Downs is indicative of his current level of sharpness.
Third Selection: (6) DELIGHTFUL KISS (Anderson Pete D/Sanchez Jeffrey)
Delightful Kiss has been unbeaten since returning to the main track at Thistledowns on June 2 for the Ohio Derby. His come from the clouds running style has served him well, as he has been able to register victories in Ohio Derby and in the Iowa Derby in back-to-back starts. Overcoming an extreme outside post and a wide trip in his most recent start, Delightful Kiss was undeterred as he mounted a powerful rally leaving the far turn. His sudden burst of late speed propelled him to the lead in the stretch, and he eventually won going away by 1 1/4 lengths. Delightful Kiss is clearly well-suited to nine furlongs. However, the prospect of yet another wide journey, while stepping up in class, may prove to be more troublesome than the level competition he faces.
Fourth Selection: (1) SAM P. (Pletcher Todd A/Douglas R R)
Sam P. offered a noteworthy third-place finish behind Delightful Kiss in Kentucky on June 16, the beneficiary of some much-needed class relief at Churchill Downs. A wide trip while demonstrating improved tactical speed on the drop certainly gave his connections something to hang their hat on looking forward. His ability to sit within striking distance of the lead is advantageous, but, Sam P. has come up wanting in the stretch of late, as he has not won since last November. Still, the fact that he is trained by Todd Pletcher, counts for something. His ability to kick in when it matters most still remains to be seen. Jockey Rene Douglas travels in from his Arlington Park home base to ride.
Wagering Strategy
* A Win bet on (9)ZANJERO
* Equal exacta boxes 1-9, 3-9, 6-9
* Small saver exacta box 8-9.
Ellis Park Race 10 - CLAIMING CROWN JEWEL S.
Ellis Park Race 10 - CLAIMING CROWN JEWEL S. 1 1/8m Non-graded 3yo and up, Purse: $150,000. 6:07/( 5:07)/ 4:07/ 3:07 Post Time: 6:07 ET
Race Synopsis
In a race lacking a confirmed frontrunner, I expect Demagoguery and Kings Challenge to contest the early fractions. Ricardo A, Andiamo, and Jamian race in the second flight of runners, with the remainder of the field taking close order behind them.
The Field from the rail out
# Name ML
1 CHIN HIGH 20/1
2 MIAMI SUNRISE 6/1
3 RICARDO A 8/1
4 SEMI LOST 9/2
5 MINING FOR SILVER 4/1
6 SOUPY 8/1
7 KINGS CHALLENGE 5/1
8 JAMIAN 8/1
9 DEMAGOGUERY 20/1
10 ANDIAMO 6/1
First Selection: (3) RICARDO A (Contessa Gary C/Lanerie C J)
Despite enjoying prior success on the grass in his career, Ricardo A did not relish his return to that surface on May 31 at Belmont Park, barely lifting a hoof that day. He was a non-descript seventh in that contest, and his connections wisely freshened him up after an ultra consistent winter/spring campaign in New York. Trained by top New York conditioner Gary Contessa, Ricardo A has been working steadily since placed on the bench, and a recent five-furlong bullet work over the Saratoga training track is indicative that he is ready to return to the racing wars. When on his game, Ricardo A can be placed anywhere. His ability to sit close to the front and finish strongly, enables him to possess a decided tactical edge over his main rivals. Jockey Corey Lanerie gets the mount, and he is at his absolute best with with runners who prefer to sit and rate.
Second Selection: (10) ANDIAMO (Downing William/Castillo O O)
Andiamo closed well to just miss by a neck at Mth. on July 15, in yet another strong effort since returned from a prolonged layoff in May of this year. Making up ground can sometimes be an exercise in futility at Monmouth Park, and yet Andiamo finished resolutely, coming up on the short end of a three-horse photo for the win. His fine turn of early speed makes him an obvious threat, and it appears as if he will relish todays nine furlong distance. He exhibits a get acquainted four furlong prep breeze over the Ellis Park main track this week, and will reunite with jockey Oliver Castillo who has ridden him successfully in the past.
Third Selection: (7) KINGS CHALLENGE (Holthus Robert E/Mojica O)
A recent winning race over the track is reason enough to make Kings Challenge a solid contender today. However, the Bob Holthus trained runner merits consideration based upon other factors as well. He has come alive since shipping back to Kentucky for a summer campaign, having been victorious in two of his last three starts. Kings Challenge was a determined winner July 18, chasing fast factions prior to edging away late to a two-length score. A softer pace scenario enhances his chances, and he projects to sit the right kind of trip for jockey Orlando Mojica, who has been riding extremely well at the current Ellis Park meet.
Fourth Selection: (4) SEMI LOST (Mullins Jeff/Castanon J L)
Without question, the once-promising Semi Lost has fallen on hard times since capturing the Pomona Derby at Fairplex in 2004. After a long absence, he returned to compete in claiming company, winning at the $20,000 level on July 6 at Hollywood Park. He showed surprise speed to dispute the early pace that day, and subsequently drew off in the stretch to win by 4 expanding lengths. He ships in from California and should give a good account of himself for his connections, top claiming owner Robert Bone and trainer Jeff Mullins
Wagering Strategy
* A Win and Place bet on (3)RICARDO A
* Exacta box 3-4-7-10 = $24 for a $2 wager
* Small trifecta box 3-4-7-10 = $24 for a $1 wager
Del Mar Race 9 - JOHN C. MABEE H.
Del Mar Race 9 - JOHN C. MABEE H. 1 1/8m (Turf) Grade I 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $400,000. Post Time: 9:05 ET
Race Synopsis
The field consists of just 6 runners, but almost any of them could win without it being termed a major upset. The turf course has played fairly to all running styles throughout this Del Mar meet, although with the rails now out at 14 feet, it could sway the pendulum to favor speed a bit more.
The Field from the rail out
# Name ML
1 DANCING EDIE 4/1
2 MEMORETTE 10/1
3 PRICE TAG 6/5
4 ANDREA 10/1
5 PRECIOUS KITTEN 3/1
6 TAKE THE RIBBON 9/2
First Selection: (5) PRECIOUS KITTEN (Frankel Robert J/Bejarano R)
Half sister to turf champion Kitten's Joy seems to be coming into her own as a top-class turf filly and has now finished first or second in all five starts since being transferred to trainer Bobby Frankel. She won her final start at age 3 in the G2 Mrs. Revere, and got back on the winning track May 19 of this year in her third start at age 4. In that race she set a new course record, and she came back with an even better performance in the G2 Cash Call Mile July 6. Usually a stalker, she went to the lead in that race after breaking from post 1, and despite losing the lead to Price Tag in the final furlong, she battled back along the inside to outfinish her stablemate for 2nd in a very gutsy and determined effort. Today she projects to sit closest to pacesetter Dancing Edie and get first run on that rival. With the temporary rails on the turf course out at 14 feet, speed has a better chance of holding up, and with her tactical speed and good finishing kick she might be hard to catch from behind, even by Price Tag. Rafael Bejarano has been riding her beautifully since last fall and flies in to retain the mount, another positive sign.
Second Selection: (3) PRICE TAG (Frankel Robert J/Solis A)
Probable favorite has won Grade 1 races in France and at Hollywood Park, although she was disqualified from the win in the French race. In her U.S. debut last Nov 26 she rallied from far back to win the prestigious G1 Matriarch with an explosive late turn of foot while rallying through traffic. She was disappointing in the G2 Cash Call Mile last time out, as that same late turn of foot seemed absent, but she may have had an excuse, as she was kept closer than she prefers to a pace that was fast, taking some of the starch out of her legs for the stretch run. Two starts back she also had a legitimate excuse in the G1 Gamely, as her winning stablemate, the 4-5 favorite Citronnade, was lone and controlling speed, and was allowed to set slow fractions. Price Tag finished well clear of all the rest in the Gamely while flying through her final furlong in :11-1/5, and it's that kind of late speed that she should show again today if she's taken farther back off the pace, as expected. Alex Solis rode her very well in the Gamely and regains the mount after she got the questionable ride from otherwise top-class jockey Edgar Prado last time out.
Third Selection: (1) DANCING EDIE (Dollase Craig/Nakatani C S)
Won this race last year while leading all the way and being allowed to set tepid fractions. The same thing could happen this year, as she projects to get a fairly easy lead from post 1, then slow down the tempo as much as possible. She was taken out of her game in the G2 Cash Call Mile last time out when caught 4-wide early and unable to make the lead, so her performance in that race is not a real factor in handicapping the Mabee. She's making her third start off the 7-month layoff and should be reaching her peak in terms of fitness and form, and she retains top turf rider Corey Nakatani, who's winning nearly 30% so far at this meet.
Wagering Strategy
* A win bet on (5)PRECIOUS KITTEN
* Main Exacta 5-3, reverse for less
* Smaller Exacta part-wheel 3-5 over 1-6 = $8 for a $2 wager
I don't think the WIZARD is that way, at least not as bad as some services I've seen. From my experience, he goes by his 'betting strategy'. He can sometimes have write-ups for more than 4 horses, but that is because they are included in the exotics ONLY. I just go by my own experience with his plays.
I get free plays from one service and they just give write-ups for the top 4 horses in a race with no betting strategy. Then once in a blue-moon if those hit the super-fecta he brags about it! He lists as his winners any combination possible. If you play all possible combinations on the four horses you'd lose a hell of a lot more than you'd win. Who's gonna be WPS on 4 horses as well as box 4 in the exacta, tri and super? What good is an occasional $12 exacta when you're betting $24.
Never thought of that....make an exacta box with 8 entries on all races on a card. I went 8-8 on exactas!! Some of these guys go very low to sell "picks." That's beauty of this forum...why pay for picks when there are excellent cappers here such as; Wire2Wire, Big C, and Discreet Cat (sorry if I missed anyone).
Anyways, those are my thoughts for what they're worth.
GL
Sellers enjoy the game as much as everyone else, just something to think about.
as that is only horse he says to bet win....If others win..he doesnt count them....Also the
exacta s have to come in exact order that he states.........if he doesnt say reverse,,,and it comes
in reverse order...its not a win....I tried another service and they list four horses in each race
and they claim victory for pick 3's etc.......lots of scam out there but Wiz ok with honesty
The real value of his plays is his STRATEGY. That's what makes his plays worth it. And he has never hyped up a play or false win etc.
His real life story is quite fascinating by the way. If you get a chance look him up, his name is Mike Kipness. Excellent handicapper who does it for a living.
Good luck guys.
Saratoga race 9 today included.
Didnt hit the exacta, but should have made a nice profit.
Stick with him and you'll cash tickets my friend.