Big Brown's post-time odds, and the possible Japanese effect
DiscreetCat
Moderator
I've been trying to determine what BB's post-time odds might be, and over the last 24 hours or so i've been considering something that i hadn't before. That is, the possible infusion of cash from Japanese racing fans into the Belmont pari-mutuiel pool. I remembered the gigantic Japanese entourage that followed the superstar colt Deep Impact to Paris for his run in the Arc de Triomphe a few years ago, and the incredible effect they had on post-time odds. Here are a couple of short pieces i dug up that made reference to that, as it happened:
The Japanese public provided a dramatic subplot to this year's Arc, one that played havoc with the race's pari-mutuel prices. At least 10,000 of the 50,000 plus fans at Longchamp on Sunday traveled especially to see their hero Deep Impact, and they seemed to bring half of the funds of the Bank of Japan with them. By noon, Deep Impact was 1-10 and he remained there until 15 minutes before the off as Shirocco drifted to 14-1 and Hurricane Run to 15-1.
The non-Japanese fans proceeded to pour it in on those two as Deep Impact ultimately drifted to 2-5 with Hurricane Run at 4-1 and Shirocco at 6-1. Rail Link, who opened a half hour before the start at 35-1, was ultimately banged down to 23.60-1, a very juicy price for anyone who believes in course and distance theories as well as for those who understand the difference between firm ground lovers and the soft ground rivals.
Odd Odds At Arc
- It was the pari-mutuel equivalent of a fire sale, with bargain prices being offered on the seven Arc runners not named Deep Impact. It made sense that Japanese bettors at Longchamps, carrying cash for friends and relatives at home unable to bet the race there, would bet Deep Impact down, but I don't think anyone imagined that he'd be 1-10, and stay there until around 15 minutes to post. It may have been even more surprising that he was bet to the extent that he was here, where he was 1-5 early before drifting up to a still paltry 4-5.
"It's the craziest betting race I've ever seen in my life," Mike Dillon, Ladbrokes' veteran racecourse PR man, said as Rail Link was led back to the winner's enclosure yesterday, and he has seen plenty. "We were laying 5-2 about Deep Impact in London, and he started at an industry price of 9-4 in Britain, but at the same moment, there were people here queueing in lines a quarter of a mile long to back him when the screen is showing him at 1-10." [Guardian Unlimited]
"While the defeat of Deep Impact saved us a massive payout, we still lost on the race as smaller punters placed bets on all his rivals at artificially inflated prices on the PMU [French tote], and Rail Link at 24-1 was the most popular."
Blue Square's Kate Miller said: "British punters are a shrewd bunch and quickly latched on to the false trading prices of runners. "We started the day with a great book and were looking forward to the race, but in the hours leading up we saw more and more money coming in for all the runners when it was clear that inflated prices would be returned." [Sporting Life]
The thing is, i had already expected Casino Drive to pull a good bit of money on Belmont Day (from American sources), and then i got to thinking about this. And of course, all this can be coupled with Big Brown's well-documented foot problem, which might lead a certain number of people to take a shot against him (if they weren't inclined to already). Mainly, my interest i this subject stems from that YES/NO prop, where odds as high as +250 have been seen on the "No" in Vegas this past weekend. I was thinking perhaps Big Brown might go off a good bit higher than most people expect him to, and perhaps there might be a nice arbitrage there. Particularly if you can bet the "No" in a book where they don't have a "must start" disclaimer, as Big Brown still has to get past that Tuesday workout, and the fact they've delayed putting that patch on his foot might be indicative of some type of problem (or at least slower-than-expected healing). So anyway, i contacted a friend of mine who lives in Japan (and was very in-tune with the whole Deep Imapct thinga few years ago), hoping that he could shed some light on this Japanese theory for me. Turns out he did, but the answer wasn't what i was hoping for. Here are his comments:
Honestly, doubt it makes much of a difference at all. Japanese fans LOVE Japanese Derby winners, and Deep Impact was practically a national hero, with students camping out for literally 10 days to get seats when he ran. But Casino Drive only ran a maiden race here, and there is almost nothing about his Belmont challenge in the sports papers or news at all. So most race fans wouldn't even know he is coming, and most would be more likely to watch the local G1 race here than the Belmont.
So, i guess that puts the kabosh on any large amount of Japanese cash affecting the American pools the way it did in France a couple of years ago, but it's still something to keep in the back of your mind. The other factor in play here is that New York uses nickel breakage (as opposed to the standard dime breakage), which does alter the pay scale on Big Brown win bets. Normally, he might pay $2.60, $2.80, $3.00, etc. But in the Belmont, he could pay $2.60, $2.70, $2.80, $2.90, and so on.
That's basically it. Like i said, this theory was pretty much shot down, but i figured i'd post it anyway. I do think this YES/NO should be paid attention to in the coming week, for the reasons stated above. My best guess at Big Brown's post-time odds (as of this writing) are somewhere between 2/5 and 1/2. I don't think he'll be 1/5 this time.
The Japanese public provided a dramatic subplot to this year's Arc, one that played havoc with the race's pari-mutuel prices. At least 10,000 of the 50,000 plus fans at Longchamp on Sunday traveled especially to see their hero Deep Impact, and they seemed to bring half of the funds of the Bank of Japan with them. By noon, Deep Impact was 1-10 and he remained there until 15 minutes before the off as Shirocco drifted to 14-1 and Hurricane Run to 15-1.
The non-Japanese fans proceeded to pour it in on those two as Deep Impact ultimately drifted to 2-5 with Hurricane Run at 4-1 and Shirocco at 6-1. Rail Link, who opened a half hour before the start at 35-1, was ultimately banged down to 23.60-1, a very juicy price for anyone who believes in course and distance theories as well as for those who understand the difference between firm ground lovers and the soft ground rivals.
Odd Odds At Arc
- It was the pari-mutuel equivalent of a fire sale, with bargain prices being offered on the seven Arc runners not named Deep Impact. It made sense that Japanese bettors at Longchamps, carrying cash for friends and relatives at home unable to bet the race there, would bet Deep Impact down, but I don't think anyone imagined that he'd be 1-10, and stay there until around 15 minutes to post. It may have been even more surprising that he was bet to the extent that he was here, where he was 1-5 early before drifting up to a still paltry 4-5.
"It's the craziest betting race I've ever seen in my life," Mike Dillon, Ladbrokes' veteran racecourse PR man, said as Rail Link was led back to the winner's enclosure yesterday, and he has seen plenty. "We were laying 5-2 about Deep Impact in London, and he started at an industry price of 9-4 in Britain, but at the same moment, there were people here queueing in lines a quarter of a mile long to back him when the screen is showing him at 1-10." [Guardian Unlimited]
"While the defeat of Deep Impact saved us a massive payout, we still lost on the race as smaller punters placed bets on all his rivals at artificially inflated prices on the PMU [French tote], and Rail Link at 24-1 was the most popular."
Blue Square's Kate Miller said: "British punters are a shrewd bunch and quickly latched on to the false trading prices of runners. "We started the day with a great book and were looking forward to the race, but in the hours leading up we saw more and more money coming in for all the runners when it was clear that inflated prices would be returned." [Sporting Life]
The thing is, i had already expected Casino Drive to pull a good bit of money on Belmont Day (from American sources), and then i got to thinking about this. And of course, all this can be coupled with Big Brown's well-documented foot problem, which might lead a certain number of people to take a shot against him (if they weren't inclined to already). Mainly, my interest i this subject stems from that YES/NO prop, where odds as high as +250 have been seen on the "No" in Vegas this past weekend. I was thinking perhaps Big Brown might go off a good bit higher than most people expect him to, and perhaps there might be a nice arbitrage there. Particularly if you can bet the "No" in a book where they don't have a "must start" disclaimer, as Big Brown still has to get past that Tuesday workout, and the fact they've delayed putting that patch on his foot might be indicative of some type of problem (or at least slower-than-expected healing). So anyway, i contacted a friend of mine who lives in Japan (and was very in-tune with the whole Deep Imapct thinga few years ago), hoping that he could shed some light on this Japanese theory for me. Turns out he did, but the answer wasn't what i was hoping for. Here are his comments:
Honestly, doubt it makes much of a difference at all. Japanese fans LOVE Japanese Derby winners, and Deep Impact was practically a national hero, with students camping out for literally 10 days to get seats when he ran. But Casino Drive only ran a maiden race here, and there is almost nothing about his Belmont challenge in the sports papers or news at all. So most race fans wouldn't even know he is coming, and most would be more likely to watch the local G1 race here than the Belmont.
So, i guess that puts the kabosh on any large amount of Japanese cash affecting the American pools the way it did in France a couple of years ago, but it's still something to keep in the back of your mind. The other factor in play here is that New York uses nickel breakage (as opposed to the standard dime breakage), which does alter the pay scale on Big Brown win bets. Normally, he might pay $2.60, $2.80, $3.00, etc. But in the Belmont, he could pay $2.60, $2.70, $2.80, $2.90, and so on.
That's basically it. Like i said, this theory was pretty much shot down, but i figured i'd post it anyway. I do think this YES/NO should be paid attention to in the coming week, for the reasons stated above. My best guess at Big Brown's post-time odds (as of this writing) are somewhere between 2/5 and 1/2. I don't think he'll be 1/5 this time.
Comments
Did you think he was overbet at all in the Peter Pan? Hard to say so after the way he won, but it was a short price all considered.
Edward
It would seem to indicate that there was a certain amount of buzz over the horse, and he certainly didn't do anything to make that go away. In fact, i was on the Preakness conference call a couple of weeks ago, and Alan (who's based in New York) seemed to think taht Casino Drive wiull pull an inordinate amount of money in the Belmont, based on all the hype he's received in the New York area since the Peter Pan. We shall see.