Wire2Wire: Belmont Card Wed
Duckgawd
Senior Member
I know Belmont is one of your favorites if not your favorite, and with the big pick 6 pool on wedensday, maybe you could give us some of your insight and thoughts on the pick 6 races? I see a lot of good betting races with full fields and a handful of them running over the turf... Looks like the 8th has a few speed balls and maybe a nice closer... I just got the form and start looking... But would love to have a discussion over the next couple days over the last 6 races....
Thanks Wire
Thanks Wire
Comments
1- Love Co: 2 races back it went off as the odds-on favorite in the Busher H. @ the Big A, set the moderate pace and ran 4th finishing behind Littlebelle and Sweet Vendetta. 4th happened to be 14 1/2 lengths back but these horses are on top of their game at the moment. With 2 solid work outs since it's last race and Prado at the helms it has a legitimate shot.
2-This horse has gone turf -->dirt twice and has won both times, is coming out of a key race, and is getting Espinoza back aboard who had the mount when posting its Beyer-high...as is the case witht he 1 horse, this horse is taking a huge class drop.
7-Silver Elegance: This horse broke its maiden over this course last october, followed it up in November at the Big A with an allowance score then tossed up a dud in a January race running under similar class condition as today's. I normally am not crazy about horses coming off long lay-offs after a cruddy race but his work tab since then has been solid, culminating with a final 4 f breeze in 50 & 2/5 at the saratoga training track. I would say this horse is a wild-card
9- Reyana's Jet: Posts this race's best last out Beyer, placing 2nd, with an 82 in a 25-k O/C at this course on 5-21. The last time this horse went from a sprint to a route, 2/8/08, it won a 41-k allowance by 5 lengths with Alan Garcia aboard. also has finished in the top 3 in 5 of its 5 last races, including one 4-1/2 length victory
The above horses are my top 4 choices thus far factoring into the pick 6. Other horses that I was unable to completely toss were Seventeenth love (5), La mure (8), and Dutchess of Rokeby (10)... Thoughts, comments, suggestions all welcome
look foward to some in depth conversation about some quality wagering races
Upon first look I saw barely any horses in this race that look like they are going to take the early lead and try to run away with it. I see possibly flash of victory or classic impact getting in front early....if I missed anything or anyone thinks otherwise please respond.
Hot table (6)- was steadied early in his last race, and finished with a, "good belated rally" to get up for 2nd place. With kent D aboard once again I think it's quite possible that if this horse can be put closer to the pace it will be able to overtake the front runners in the stretch.
Youbetthecan (7)- some really nice trainer stats for Dutrow... J/T combo clicking at 32% winners. It's Beyer fig 3 races back could possibly be more than enough to be first to the wire.
Takennotgiven (11)- this horse is 1/7 @ the belmont turf...1/2 @ at this distance...and checked twice last race, has a solid barn and trainer. with that said, his beyer's over the last few races have not been anything to write home about...it'd have to revert from its form during june '06 to take this one down
I also like the two also eligibles so I'll have to watch to see what happens with them on race day...if they run then this pick 6 ticket will be very costly.
And I do believe that Reyana's Jet is Scratched, ML of 99-1, I believe the horse won after he was entered, and will not be running tommorow....
Wizard's Crystal Ball:
#3 WINNING POINT (Race 3) Won her first three career starts last year at age 3, then faced nothing but stakes company the rest of the year. She finished 2nd in all four of those stakes contests, three of them in G2 races, and she's probably grown and matured further while away for 11 months. She's been working very well here at Belmont for a while now and showed in her debut win that she can fire fresh. She's also getting a big positive trainer change to Kiaran McLaughlin, who's won 21% off layoffs of 6 months or more in 2007-08, and 25% with his new acquisitions during that span. Versatile filly projects to sit close to the pace and could get first run on probable pacesetter Ice Cool Kitty.
#6 HOT TABLE (Race 5) Has improved with each start since the short layoff and was best last time out over this course and distance. In that race he was stuck behind a crawling pace set by the front-running winner, then was caught in traffic when trying to commence a rally on the far turn. He angled out widest in upper stretch and finished fastest of all but ran out of ground, settling for 2nd after passing 4 rivals in the final furlong. Hot Table has enough tactical speed to be more forwardly placed today, and if Desormeaux just keeps him out of traffic trouble then he can make amends for Bill Mott and top-class owner Zayat Stable.
#8 DANCING TIN MAN (Race 6) Productive gelding has won 5 of 13 lifetime starts on turf, including 3 of his last 4. He won his last two in 2007, then after a needed 'prep' on April 25 he returned to win against tougher company than this May 26. In that race he was dead last to the stretch, then circled widest and finished fastest to get up in time while ridden for the first time by Cornelio Velasquez. Trainer David Donk now finds a clever spot where Dancing Tin Man is dropping in class, yet is safe from a claim. He should get an honest pace to rally into and could be set for a peak effort in his third start off the 5-month layoff.
EVERY EFFORT WAS MADE TO ENSURE ACCURACY OF PROGRAM NUMBERS. PLEASE CONFIRM BEFORE WAGERING.
1st BEL 1m StrAlw $50,000 3yo and up, Purse: $49,000. ( 1:00)/12:00/11:00/10:00
Exacta, Trifecta, Pick 3 Races (1-3), Daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
2 COOL TALES 5/2 Shed blinkers for the first time in his career while returning to dirt May 14 and romped by 10 lengths in very fast time for the class level. That was also his first race for a claiming tag, and he's back today in a great spot where he can't be claimed away. Trainer Jimmy Jerkens is having a huge meet at 35% wins and this colt is versatile enough to lead or stalk the pace while back at the same 1-mile distance as his win.
4 VALUE PLAYER 3/1 Just 1 for 15, but he's finished 2nd or 3rd 10 more times. Drops in class from a series of allowance races after hitting the board in all 3 starts this year. Finished 2nd in his only prior start over this track and switches to Dutrow's main rider Prado.
5 BUY A PERSONALITY 9/2 Stalker/closer has improved with every start and has never finished worse than 2nd in four lifetime starts. Led for most of the stretch last time out but had no apparent excuse when caught late at odds of 4-5. This field is tougher than that one.
1A NET PRESENT VALUE 6/1 Stalker has finished 2nd in both starts since the switch to trainer Joe Orseno and is expected to benefit from this stretch out to a mile after his rally fell just a neck short last time out.
2nd BEL 6f MdnClm $35,000 3yo and up, Purse: $25,000. ( 1:32)/12:32/11:32/10:32
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta, Pick 3 Races (2-4), Pick 4 Races (2-5) Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
3 BLAZING KARAKORUM 3/1 First time starter is by outstanding debut sire Hook and Ladder, and trainer Linda Rice has won with 18% of her firsters in 2007-08. Meets an ordinary field today and shows some good works, including two 5F stamina moves.
6 WOLFSON 4/1 Drops in class to face maiden claimers for the first time. $270,000 2yo purchase by a top owner has been a big disappointment and had no apparent excuse when finishing a terrible 7th as the favorite last time out. His best race was over this track in his debut and if he can run back to that then he could win. Projects to sit close to the pace, possibly getting first run.
2 ANOTHER HADES 5/2 Hit the board in 4 of his last 5 starts and drops in class to face maiden claimers for the first time since his 2nd place finish over this track and distance last Oct 4. Gets a huge positive rider change on the drop but his trainer is ice-cold at this meet (1 for 43).
7 BLUE MONSTER 12/1 Broke very slowly from post 1 in his debut and never factored. Drops in class from that tougher open-company race and switches to Allen Iwinski, who's won with 21% of his new acquisitions this year. Lures John Velazquez, who's won 5 of his last 15 for Iwinski. Watch tote for wagering action.
3rd BEL 1mAlwOClm $75,000 4yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $60,000. ( 2:04)/ 1:04/12:04/11:04
Exacta, Trifecta, Pick 3 Races (3-5) Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
3 WINNING POINT 7/5 Classy filly comes off a layoff for a top trainer. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!
6 ICE COOL KITTY 7/2 Tough-as-nails mare has won 9 of 15 lifetime starts on dry tracks and is 3 for 3 lifetime at this 1-mile distance. She could land on an easy lead today in a field with no other front-runners and trainer Richard Dutrow Jr. wins 21% off layoffsof 6 months or more. Edgar Prado is aboard and has won the last three times he's ridden her.
4 DRAMA LADY 10/1 Holds a current conditioning edge over the top two and could be set for a peak effort in her third start off the 7-month layoff. She won in fast time in her April 17 return from the layoff but then fell too far off the pace when trying stakes company May 17. Should be forwardly placed at this longer distance and her win over this track last year was also in a route race.
4th BEL 1mAlwOClm $25,000 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $52,000. ( 2:36)/ 1:36/12:36/11:36
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta, Pick 3 Races (4-6), Pick 6 Races (4-9) Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
1 LOVE CO 5/2 Gets a big drop in class after facing open stakes company in all three starts since her maiden win. Her 12-3/4 length romp in her stakes debut Feb 3 was extremely impressive and would be good enough to handle this field if repeated. Her 4th place finish Feb 24 was flattered when the first and 2nd place finishers subsequently won G1 and G2 races. Love Co got a useful sharpener off the 2-1/2 month layoff on turf May 8 and is well-meant on this return to dirt while switching to a top rider in Edgar Prado.
2 MY DINAH 3/1 Won her first two career starts on dirt, both while making this same turf-to-dirt move. Her only other dirt start to date was a solid 3rd place finish in a stakes race behind a runaway winner. Reunites with Jose Espinoza, who was aboard for her last win. He's also won 3 of 6 for this trainer in 2007-08.
5 SEVENTEEN LOVE 12/1 Won 2 of her first three career starts last year, including a debut romp over this track, then tailed off in her last two starts of 2007. Rallied boldly to finish a close 2nd at 28-1 in her April 30 return from the layoff but then was dull May 21. Could rebound at a square price today in her third start back, and note that she won her third start last year against a 'key' race field.
8 LA MURE 12/1 Had some traffic trouble in her last dirt start May 1 but still rallied to finish a clear 2nd at 25-1. Didn't handle the turf experiment last time out but trainer King Leatherbury has won with 5 of his last 15 turf-to-dirt runners. Versatile filly has hit the board in 4 of 5 starts at this distance.
5th BEL 1 1/8m (IT) Clm $35,000 3yo and up, Purse: $34,000. ( 3:08)/ 2:08/ 1:08/12:08
Exacta, Trifecta, Super ($.10 Minimum), Pick 3 Races (5-7),grand Slam Races (5-8) Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
6 HOT TABLE 3/1 Should have won at this trip last time out. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!
2 ALL IN NO OUTS 7/2 Tried turf for the first time April 9 and finished strongly, but fell much too far off the early pace. Blinkers go on today off the 2-month freshening and new trainer Galluscio wins a solid 13% first off the claim. Lightly-raced gelding still has upside potential and will be racing on firm turf for the first time.
7 YOUBETHECAN 6/1 Was dull in his last two starts, but his maiden win three starts back in his last race at age 3 would probably be good enough to win here if repeated. Shows 4 works off a freshening and keeps winning jockey Velasquez. Richard Dutrow Jr. wins 26% off similar short layoffs.
14 FLASH OF VICTORY 4/1 Should be forwardly placed if he gets in from the AE list while also dropping in class. Obvious knocks are that he has a bad post and that he has just 1 win, compared to 13 finishes in 2nd or 3rd.
5 KICK UP YOUR HEELS 6/1 Lone win was at this distance on turf last summer at 12-1, also with Prado aboard. Should offer a price again today and could be set to peak in his third start off the 6-month layoff. Can sit close to the pace.
6th BEL 1 1/16m (Turf) StrAlw $50,000 3yo and up, Purse: $49,000. ( 3:40)/ 2:40/ 1:40/12:40
Exacta, Trifecta,superfecta ($.10 Minimum), Pick 3 Races (6-8), Pick 4 Races (6-,daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
8 DANCING TIN MAN 3/1 Can win back on a smart drop in class. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!
7 PERSONAL GOOD 5/1 Ran well in his turf debut March 27, then finished a close and clear 2nd in a very fast race April 13. Half-brother to multiple stakes winner Punch Appeal seems to have improved nicely on turf and his best-of-28 work May 27 suggests that he's sharp and ready off the 2-month break.
1 SUMPHIN 4/1 Has speed to lead or sit close and get first run while entering in sharp and improving form. He's won 2 of his last 3, and in the loss he missed by just a neck after dueling most of the way. New trainer wins 15% off the claim and is having a great meet.
4 ROMP 6/1 Late-runner has hit the board in 12 of 17 on turf, including all 5 starts on Belmont grass. He won his last start in Florida March 21, then fell when favored May 30 in his first race for trainer Bruce Brown, who's won with several new acquisitions in recent weeks. This is probably a bit of a class drop off that race.
3 FOOTLOOSE MAN 15/1 Steps up in class off a game maiden win over this course and distance. In that race he rallied thru traffic and split rivals near the 1/16 pole in a determined effort. A similar effort fits well at this class level and winning jockey Garcia stays aboard.
7th BEL 6f (IT) Alw 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $49,000. ( 4:12)/ 3:12/ 2:12/ 1:12
Exacta, Trifecta, Pick 3 Races (7-9) Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
6 CITIFIESTA 10/1 In a field with lots of speed this stalker can sit the right trip behind a probable duel, getting first run as the leaders start to tire. She came off a 2-month layoff May 26 to try turf for the first time and won in a game effort. The margin of victory was just a neck, but she was really much the best, as she had to steady in upper stretch, then rallied between rivals in the final furlong in a determined effort. 3yo filly has found a home on turf and seems to have plenty of upside potential in just her fifth career start.
1A MINE OR WHO'S 5/1 Strong finisher should get a great set up in a field with lots of speed. She was good enough to finish 3rd in a stakes race, beaten just 1 length, to conclude her 2yo campaign. Returned to her better form May 25 when rallying from 10th to finish 3rd, and might have been closer if not for a bad trip where she had to steady a number of times. Must overcome a potential wide trip from the outermost post.
9 MYAKKA 3/1 Was stakes-placed last year as a juvenile and has come back nicely at age 3. Moved to turf May 25 and led most of the way, finishing a game and clear 2nd in a fast race for the class level after disposing of her pace rival, who was the even-money favorite. Should be even fitter in her third start off the 7+ month layoff but could be compromised by all of the other speed in this field.
4 JUSTINLINE 4/1 Versatile filly stalked the pace and won over this course and distance May 26. Projects for a similar trip today in a race with lots of speed. Winning jock Maragh stays aboard and has won 4 of his last 10 for this trainer.
1 LA RANSOM 5/1 Runs only if entrymate scratches, as Desormeaux is named on both. Dueled thru a quick pace off the 2-1/2 month layoff May 2 and tired, but may revert to stalking tactics in this field loaded with speed. Her lone win came the only other time that she broke from post 1.
8th BEL 7f (Turf) Alw 3yo and up, Purse: $55,000. ( 4:45)/ 3:45/ 2:45/ 1:45
Exacta, Trifecta, Daily Double Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
8 PAPA BEAR 6/1 Came off a long layoff for his 4yo debut March 14 and was vastly improved. Ignored at 27-1 against a good field at Santa Anita, he rated near the back of the field for a half-mile, then exploded thru the lane to get up late while scorching his final furlong in :11-2/5. His very knowledgeable connections were impressed enough to send him to Keeneland to try the G
2 Commonwealth, but that class jump was too much too soon and he faltered after pressing the pace for a half-mile. This is a giant drop in class, and he has good turf breeding. Trainer Mike Hushion also excels with first time turf runners, winning 28% in 2007-08. Five more works since the last race should have Papa Bear back on course today in his third start off the 9-month absence.
5 PENNINGTON 5/1 Just as he did last year at age 3, this gelding has improved noticeably with each start in 2008. Rallied strongly and was just outfinished April 11 in his first start on turf. Made amends May 17 with a decisive move to take command of the race in upper stretch. He overcame a tough post and soft turf that day. Gets a better post here and has a versatile running style to adapt to any kind of pace.
9 FOREST OF DREAMS 3/1 $600,000 2yo purchase is a half-brother to three stakes winners. Showed some ability in three starts last year but really impressed with a 10-length win off the 8-month layoff May 9. That race was an off-the-turf affair and he blazed thru the fastest first quarter of any race on the card. Rather than tiring in the lane, he widened his margin at every call and won under a hand ride. Huge work June 2 for hot trainer Jerkens. Solid turf breeding.
7 RAYNICKS FAN 6/1 Won his last two starts of 2007, then returned to his winning ways in his second start of 2008. Stalker/closer would be tough with a repeat of his April 26 victory and reunites with Cornelio Velasquez, who won aboard him a year ago here at Belmont.
9th BEL 6f Clm $25,000 3yo and up, Purse: $41,000. ( 5:17)/ 4:17/ 3:17/ 2:17
Exacta, Trifecta,superfecta ($.10 Minimum) Wagers
# Horse ML Wizard Comments
9 GOLDEN AMULET 7/2 Final race of this tough Pick 6 sequence has an abundance of early speed signed on, which could set things up perfectly for this stalker/closer. He hit the board in his first three starts of 2008, including a decisive maiden win March 22, but then faded badly last time out when catching a wet track that he clearly didn't handle. He was also roughed up at the break that day. He now returns to a dry track, where he's hit the board in 6 of 7 lifetime starts, and this will also be the first time that he races against claimers. The switch to Javier Castellano also doesn't hurt his chances at all.
10 TEN FORTY 3/1 Speedy colt came off a 15-month layoff April 3 and did not disappoint as the 4-5 favorite. That was his first race against claimers, and he was never challenged after quickly getting clear on a fast pace. Adds Lasix today, a 38% winning angle for Bruce Levine, while coming off another much shorter layoff of 2 months. Big positive rider change to Desormeaux is a positive signal from a winning trainer. Could take this field all the way, but might also be compromised by a duel, with other speed to his inside.
7 NEWMONT 8/1 Dueled for much of the race before drawing away in his maiden win three starts back. That race was fast for the class level, and the figure he earned could win this if repeated. May not have cared for the slop when coming off a 2-month break May 16 but could rebound on a dry track while getting blinkers back on today.
1 BOMBER D BACK 8/1 Stalker has hit the board in 6 of his last 8 and comes off a better-than-looks 2nd here May 23 where he rallied against a stiff speed bias. Should get a good pace set up in a field with lots of speed.
6 E Z DOLLAR 15/1 Broke his maiden three starts back, then put in solid efforts in his last two races. May have grown and matured further while away for 3 months and his sharp bullet work June 3 bodes well for this return. Gets in light with solid apprentice Morales aboard.
So pick 1 race, where you think the best single of the pick 6 is!
Race 4: Orginally I like Reyana's Jet, but won last friday for this condition, and therefor will be a scratch tommorow. So I turned to #2 My Dinah 3-1 (2nd Choice) Making a good class drop here, brom 2 Stakes races at $100K+ I liked the running style last time out, stayed close to the pace, but then fell back, going from Turf to Dirt with a trainer hitting at 43% and Espinoza back aboard which is a big Plus for this guy! I look for a big Effort out of this one.
Race 6: #8 Dancing Tin Man 3-1 (ML Fav.) This one is the most consistent one of the field with a big Advantage, and with my number on him at 83, and the next one only at 72! Not only that, this one sets up very well for this one, there are a few pace setters here that will battle on the front end, and this one will be driving late! 3 Wins out of the last 4, with the only miss because of a troubled trip, only negative is the bigger field, and if he does get caught in traffic might be tough to maneaver, but I think the class and nose for the wire will get this one acraoss.
Those are my 2 singles... I might have 1 more, if I go deeper in a couple then what I have planned right now.
A couple live long shots for the Pick 6 Races, that you might want to look at- Race 8: #3 Unbridled Refrain 20-1 This one trying turf for the first time, with a good turf pedigree, a little bit of a disspointment for a $350K Horse with only 16K so far, but the Turf could be the answer.
Also in the 8th #6 Big Wig 12-1 is also a great Turf Pedigree, and back to a sprint, pletcher has a good % with this move, deffintly think we can see a nice price in this race!
Good Luck guys!