Poll Question: When do you look to play horses off a layoff?

RightAngle

I thought this would be an interesting poll question.

rawm220

this is a tough one to have just one answer.

i think it depends on the situation.

a horse off a layoff about to race a G1 should be in his best form i would assume.

claimers showing improvement in 2nd start after a layoff. 3rd race off layoff in this situation.

it also seems that a horse that has won off a layoff is most likely to not repeat in his 2nd outting. this again depends on the situation.

as for the most common answer, i always hear 3rd off a layoff.

RightAngle

You are right it does depend on a lot of factors.

How they race in the first race back is always huge, and do they improve from first to second start. Sometimes if the horse doesn't fire at all, in one of the first three races, the fourth start is live. That is usually my favorite pattern to look for.


Edward

2W2P2S

LOL.
The correct answer is you better not have a correct answer.
Every situation is different.

DiscreetCat

It depends. Obviously, when betting a horse off a layoff (particularly an extended one), you want a trainer who performs well in that category. The jockey who's named to ride can also signal intent, as virtially all trainers have certain "go-to guys" that they tend to use on their live ones. It's also important that a horse has been training well. Some simply aren't ready to go the first time back. Sometimes that's by design, sometimes not.

hue21998

On graded races i tend to not look at layoffs as different trainers do different systems to get these horses ready as opposed to the 30 day circuit horses. Horses on layoff and horses running for the first time at Calder always seem to run dissapointing no matter their odds.
On circuit horses I think you have to dig a little deeper to see why the horse was laid up. Injury i usally would watch a horses 1st race to see any signs beyond tiring which I think is expected. Horses off a layoff not from injury, I try to look at if theres a possibility the trainer is steering the horse to a possible particular race.

bobphilo

I like to look at the trainer’s win and ITM % off the lay-off. Not that these numbers are necessarily high but that they are comparable to the trainers other stats.

Even more important, look how well the particular horse has done after a lay-off. Horses tend to repeat successful patterns.

Bob

twomtns2002

Horses off a layoff? It is all Horoscopes!!
When to lay them off , now that is a good question.....

Ludwig

Always on the first start. Many horses need a break, if they have a new trainer during the layoff, it is a big plus

citation1948

A good friend of mine is a trainer at our local track. After a long break he usually puts his horse into a higher grade race (so he won't get claimed) and see how he does. He has always told me to ask him first when he is bringing a horse back from a layoff. They usually need a race over the track before he puts him into company that he will be competitive with.

Hope this helps.

partsnut

Very hypothetical question which covers a large area. I believe that a 20% trainer that has shown success with this type of situation is a plus. Look also at the horses good race, bad race pattern (OX). If the horses last race was poor before the lay off and falls into this pattern, it might be worth a play today if the horse is speed qualified.
If the horses last race before a lay off was good, you might go wait for his 2nd race.
Another indicator might be an "Early Presser" type with some speed coming off 2 sprint races and stretching out to a route. If the horse has a 20% trainer, makes this a strong possibilty if the horse is speed qualified.

bigbrown62

i rememger this harness race that this favorite that i dnd'nt think would win because he was off for a year or so. so i bet against him. but he wins anyway , like it didn't matter how long he was off. he was that good. so some horses can win after a lay off because they are that good.

rayphil

I like to play a horse on there second start back unless they had to battle the whole way down the stretch. If they ran a even race then I love that.

HORSEMAN123

I like to use Second start after layoff with one or more other angles Such as a drop in class but I insist that the first race back for the horse to show some kind of early speed.

trotter64

For me... i look to play them about 3 minutes to post.

they`reoff

That little `b` on the workouts is one of my favorites.

maryforney

For me, it's all about the trainer, and knowing their style. Some always give a horse a race, others are usually ready to go.

foz1210

Everyone knows the third start off the layoff is a good betting angle. The angle I look for in the first race off the layoff is a 5 furlong workout within the last 7 to 10 days. Many big trainers use this and I have had success with it. This angle can give you a big edge at smaller tracks, where there aren't as many top trainers. You must also use other handicapping tools in your search for your horse. If the horse was a bad horse before the layoff he will still be a bad horse after the layoff. Also look to see if the horse has fired fresh before off a layoff. Hope this was helpful. The Foz

scrappyT

RightAngle wrote: »

I thought this would be an interesting poll question.

Seems as though everyone here replying has the right idea, IT DEPENDS !
For example horses trained by Robert Ribaudo( mostly NY ) improve dramaticly in the 3rd aft layoff.They go from 18-19 % wins 22-23% ITM to 25% wins and 40% ITM.

MdnSpecialist

Horses that have shown to run good off layoffs before is always a good thing to look for if the price is right..I use race reports from a site that has layoff factor figures for sires and trainers...It's pretty useful. The reports also show percentages for distances and different purse levels..It's totally free.

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