Testing 101 Easy Contendors Arlington Morning Line
MikeSolar
Member
Testing 101 Easy Contenders Purpose: Test Control Contender Rankings
Project
1. Fake $1 Exacta and Trifecta three horse box on every race to start with.
2. Practice for contest across the board on my top pick each race.
3. Have fun and practice selecting winner from my contenders.
4. Results and profits to be posted the following day.
5. List point system to indicate horses who show higher advantage in speed rating
Arlington Park 6-27-08 Morning Line for Friday
Race #1 Good trifecta race. 8 point advantage on speed ratings over the rest of the field.
1. Daleens Desire 4/1
2. Conga 10/1 Longshot
3. Marimar Light 2/1
Race #2 6 point advantage to top pick in speed ratings.
1. Miss Rusteer 6/1 Longshot
2. In a Tiz 3/1
3. Frosty Melody 8/1 Longshot
Race #3 Awesome shot at the trifecta 15 point advantage on SR over rest of the field
1. Xcellent Thunder 8/5
2. Smilin Justice 6/1
3. Nagalong 5/2
Race #4
1. Lahar 5/2
2. No Image 2/1
3. Double Swirl 9/2
Race #5
1. Megawattie 3/1
2. Kissit 6/1 Longshot
3. Party of Eight 6/1 Longshot
Race #6
1. Rocket Rodd 2/1
2. Y Chance it or By Gollie Mr. Ollie Coupled 8/1 3/1
3. Pullmanite 7/2
Race #7
1. Danas Bell 6/1 Longshot
2. Saber Jet Reprized 6/1
3. Rumari 5/1
Race #8 had incomplete data so I left it out.
Race #9 Top pick has 10 point advantage on speed rating.
1. Positivelycharming 5/2
2. Ripe Tomato 8/1 Longshot
3. Homes the best 3/1
Race #10
1. Plain Brown Wrap 4/1
2. Regal Native 5/2
3. Country Town 5/1
Project
1. Fake $1 Exacta and Trifecta three horse box on every race to start with.
2. Practice for contest across the board on my top pick each race.
3. Have fun and practice selecting winner from my contenders.
4. Results and profits to be posted the following day.
5. List point system to indicate horses who show higher advantage in speed rating
Arlington Park 6-27-08 Morning Line for Friday
Race #1 Good trifecta race. 8 point advantage on speed ratings over the rest of the field.
1. Daleens Desire 4/1
2. Conga 10/1 Longshot
3. Marimar Light 2/1
Race #2 6 point advantage to top pick in speed ratings.
1. Miss Rusteer 6/1 Longshot
2. In a Tiz 3/1
3. Frosty Melody 8/1 Longshot
Race #3 Awesome shot at the trifecta 15 point advantage on SR over rest of the field
1. Xcellent Thunder 8/5
2. Smilin Justice 6/1
3. Nagalong 5/2
Race #4
1. Lahar 5/2
2. No Image 2/1
3. Double Swirl 9/2
Race #5
1. Megawattie 3/1
2. Kissit 6/1 Longshot
3. Party of Eight 6/1 Longshot
Race #6
1. Rocket Rodd 2/1
2. Y Chance it or By Gollie Mr. Ollie Coupled 8/1 3/1
3. Pullmanite 7/2
Race #7
1. Danas Bell 6/1 Longshot
2. Saber Jet Reprized 6/1
3. Rumari 5/1
Race #8 had incomplete data so I left it out.
Race #9 Top pick has 10 point advantage on speed rating.
1. Positivelycharming 5/2
2. Ripe Tomato 8/1 Longshot
3. Homes the best 3/1
Race #10
1. Plain Brown Wrap 4/1
2. Regal Native 5/2
3. Country Town 5/1
Comments
8 out of 9 races.
Top picked yielded 3 winners for 33% of the races with only one exacta paying 50.00
and no trifectas. 51.20 would have been the return if in the contest.
Obviously an exacta play and trifecta on every race will end up with a negative profit margin
in the long run., however I will give it one more day before changing my format.
108.00 was amount wagered on exotics, returning a meger 25.00 on the $1 box.
Total wagered for the day (following the rules) would have been 162.00.
Return on the day was slightly over 75.00 Clearly some modifications to the selection process
will be needed, such as in a tie( or close) the top pick may be chosen, then the second horse
thrown out totally if they continue to not come in second or complete the trifecta or exacta.
Then another horse might be entered as a contender for second and third.
Looks like I'm goin into Saturday down bout 80 bucks. Tomorrows another day.
Winning races were 2nd, 5th, and 6th with one top pick comin in second. On the positive note,
I did better than double my contest outcome from last week. See ya tomorrow. Thanks MIke
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