The Real Top Trainers at the SPA - Plusses & Minuses as of mid August
Trotman
Senior Member
THE REAL TOP TRAINERS AT THE SPA - PLUSSES AND MINUSES...
Anyone can look at the standings and tell you that Todd Pletcher has three more winners at Saratoga than Richard Dutrow and four more than Steve Asmussen, Anthony Dutrow and Barclay Tagg. So what. Furthermore, if you can read you can know what their winning percentages are. Again, so what. If you don't know which one is a good bet and why, then you are throwing away your money. You'll understand what I mean after you read my trainer analysis below.
Usual Names Atop The Trainer's Standings...But Are They The Leaders?
Pletcher (12)...R. Dutrow (9)...Asmussen (8)...A. Dutrow (8)...Tagg (8)...Contessa (7)...McLaughlin (7)...Frankel (7)...recognizable names all, and all comprising the trainer's leader-board at Saratoga at the close of racing on Monday, August 18.
What all of these trainers also have in common is that they are on the short list of just about every player's "is [fill in a name from above] running anything in this race?" And it is that generic handicapping shortcut which creates a tremendous number of under-lays for those unique few who are willing to see beyond the stats...those unique few who make money at the race track.
The leaders above have been identified. Let's take a look at the standings for those trainers with 4 wins or more...including earnings.
Name Starts 1st 2nd 3rd Earnings
Todd A. Pletcher 52 12 5 7 $629,568
Richard E. Dutrow, Jr. 37 9 8 6 $551,175
Steven M. Asmussen 34 8 7 4 $721,603
Anthony W. Dutrow 22 8 4 5 $398,916
Barclay Tagg 27 8 3 2 $531,794
Gary C. Contessa 85 7 12 5 $451,359
Kiaran P. McLaughlin 36 7 5 8 $503,811
Robert J. Frankel 25 7 5 2 $546,891
Linda Rice 35 6 5 3 $283,611
Michael J. Maker 17 6 2 1 $196,166
Bruce N. Levine 35 5 8 6 $306,789
George Weaver 19 5 5 3 $306,435
Wesley A. Ward 16 5 1 3 $180,212
Nicholas P. Zito 36 4 6 3 $708,076
D. Wayne Lukas 41 4 3 1 $196,396
David P. Duggan 11 4 1 1 $173,527
The names are definitely part of the who's who list of conditioners. Pletcher has a comfortable lead over his nearest competitor and is winning at a healthy 23%. Those numbers can't help but give what I call a "glance handicapper" confidence that Pletcher will deliver for him. But if it is percentage that is important, wouldn't either Anthony Dutrow at 36.4% and Barclay Tagg at 29.6% be even better?
One could rationalization and tell a player, "sure, Dutrow and Tagg have a higher percentage, but they've also won four less times, so I wouldn't have cashed as many tickets, or had as much opportunity to be in play in an Exacta or Trifecta."
Of course if being in play in the exotics is your goal, then percentage wise you'd be well advised to hitch your hopes to Richard Dutrow, who has won at just under 25%, but is also on the board 62% of the time, or Bobby Frankel who wins at a 28% clip and has been first or second with just one shy of half his starts.
For the casual or recreational or even lazy everyday player...which of course makes up about 95% of people putting money through the windows...these leading trainer standings, even in so limited a manner, can provide some direction. The important question is can you ever become a winner playing with just this information?
One can look at the situation by breaking down the true value of even the most rudimentary statistics above in order to find the True Leading Trainers from that short group.that can be accomplished by giving you plusses and minuses for some of the trainers on the above list.
Todd Pletcher
(PLUS) - 23% win ratio...sharp with MSW runners, particularly 2-year olds as 5 of his 12 wins were maiden special weights and a sixth a maiden claimer. Usually has live horses in stakes races...already has three stakes wins.
(MINUS) - 10 of his 12 winners have been at single digits with no payoff higher than $10.60. His R.O.I. for all 52 starters is $1.31. Although his R.O.I. in maiden races is better, it still does not pass the Takeout Threshold*.
*The Takeout Threshold is the level at which a Return On Investment (R.O.I.) surpasses what the track takes out of each bet. For a Win Bet the average nationwide is about 16%. Since the majority of players are recreational or amateur and as a practice the highest percentage of those will, over time, lose what the track takes out, an R.O.I. of $1.68 per $2 bet would mean a player is breaking even based on pool distribution minus that takeout. Below the Takeout Threshold is unacceptable. Above it, and up to $2.00 is acceptable. Anything above $2.00 as an R.O.I. is very acceptable...the higher the better.
Conclusion - Unless you can find the one or two very specific situations where a bet on Pletcher is a plus (and only my clients get that when I recommend a horse the conditioner enters) you have three choices... bet knowing you are playing a negative percentage underlay, pass the race altogether or try to beat him with a horse you think slightly less probable but much better priced.
Richard Dutrow
(PLUS) - 24% win ratio and 46% first and second combined. R.O.I. for all 37 starters is $2.07. He has already had a pair of double digit winners, topped by Acai at $26.20.
(MINUS) - Not particularly adept with grass runners when compared to his overall success rate. But very few pronounced weaknesses otherwise.
(Conclusion) - There is every reason to use him on top and in the exacta if you feel you have the right horse. Dutrow is particularly strong at reading race conditions as 3 of his 9 wins have come in often difficult to match up allowance/optional claimers and a 4th in a straight allowance. He has also saddled a pair of stakes winners and a trio of MSW winners, two of which are juveniles. This would tell me that he never wastes a race and is adept at getting a horse ready for the level he should be running at.
Steve Asmussen
(PLUS) - 23.5% win ratio and 44.1% place ratio. Terrific R.O.I. of $3.12 on all 34 starters. Very strong with juveniles, both first and second time starters...6 of his 8 winners have been 2-year old maidens, 5 of those MSW runners.
(MINUS) - Streaky trainer whose specialty pigeon-holes him. 4 of his 8 winners came in his first 6 starters at the meet.
(Conclusion) - If you didn't go to the wedding on the first two days of the meet when he grabbed 4 winners you might want to consider that he is 4 for 28 (14.3%) since. However, his R.O.I. on those 28 starters is still $2.04 because he had a $25.80 winner (Warm Country) and a $17.00 winner (Kensai) from his most recent quartet. You should look long and hard before you toss or bet against any of his juvenile runners.
Anthony Dutrow
(PLUS) - 36.4% win ratio and 54.5% finish first or second. Selective trainer only runs when he believes he can win. Steady record as 4 wins in first two weeks and 4 wins in second two weeks would indicate. Even though not a single one of his 8 winners has paid double digits, he has still posted a strong $2.15 R.O.I.
(MINUS) - Like his brother very few negatives. Never a big price. Not particularly strong with maidens, at least not as strong as he used to be.
(Conclusion) - There is nothing sexy about his entrants, but as he also wins in those specifically conditioned allowance/optional claimers (3 of his 8 victories) and straight claimers (2 wins) you know he is putting his horses in the right spots. If you are the type of player who is patient, is willing to focus on the percentage trainers that always run horses that have a chance to win and in the long run will give you a profit, you can do a lot worse than Anthony Dutrow.
Barclay Tagg
(PLUS) - 29.6% win ratio. Has a $2.15 R.O.I. from his 27 starters. Has won three stakes races. Is also hot right now as 6 of his 8 wins have come in the last two weeks.
(MINUS) - Overall percentages and R.O.I. are not anywhere near as strong with debut MSW, overall MSW and even lesser with turf maidens...his debut with turf MSW for instance is only 7%.
(Conclusion) - Tagg has always kept a smaller barn...although he is now bigger than he has been in the past...so he concentrates on upper echelon racing. While not a "society" trainer he nonetheless will be found in the allowance and stakes ranks. While that makes things more competitive for him he more than holds his own...and because he isn't as high profile as Pletcher, Frankel, McLaughlin, Dutrow, Mott, et al, you can usually get value. Take a long hard look at anything he enters.
Gary Contessa
(PLUS) - Every once in a while will unleash a long shot, as he did with French Song ($30.60) last week. Wins his share with sheer numbers.
(MINUS) - Only 7 winners from 85 starters, a very low 8.3% win ratio. Too often settles for support roles...almost twice as many seconds (12) as wins. His R.O.I. for his 85 starters is $0.98.
(Conclusion) - Because he is predominantly a claiming trainer with a high turnover in his barn he is subject to plenty of hot and as is the case now, very cold streaks. Right now he is even colder than his overall low percentage. He came here with a few ready to win claimers, grabbing 5 victories during the opening two weeks. Over the last two weeks he's had just 2. At this point the only possibility is to use a live horse in the exacta due to his "seconditis" but even that isn't a gimmee. Probably wise to bet against him unless he suddenly gets hot in the last two weeks.
Kieran McLaughlin
(PLUS) - Always a threat to have a horse ready and does improve them. 19.5% win ratio and 55.5% on-the-board number are above the norm.
(MINUS) - Only first or second 33% of the time. R.O.I. for all 36 runners is only $1.31, with only one double-digit payout and 4 of the 7 at $5.40 or less. Struggling with his better horses with 3 wins in MSW ranks and 2 winners from claimers.
(Conclusion) - Right now the usually reliable McLaughlin is struggling. Whether he came to Saratoga under bad timing situations where some of his better ones weren't in the right form cycle is irrelevant. Whatever the reason, he isn't producing and things are made worse by the fact that he is too often over-bet anyway.
Bob Frankel
(PLUS) - Never, never, never runs for the sake of running. 28% win ratio and first or second 50% of the time.
(MINUS) - His R.O.I. from his 24 starters is $1.44. He has only had one winner pay double-digits with 6 of the remaining 7 at $6.70 or less and 5 at $4.40 or less.
(Conclusion) - It is very seldom that a well-meant Frankel horse presents value, but more often than not, when his horses are ignored, or softly supported they fail to run well. That can help you shy away from him.
Michael Maker
(PLUS) - Unknown trainer on the NY Circuit means he's not going to get false public money. 35% win ratio from his 17 starters and solid win to place advantage means he's all or nothing. 3 of his 6 winners have been at double digits, including $27.00 Skills Coach. His R.O.I. on all 17 starters is an amazing $4.31 and 5 of the 6 winners have come in the last two weeks.
(MINUS) - Will keep looking for it.
(Conclusion) - He isn't trying to put anything over on anyone. His horses are well-prepared and well-spotted. In addition to his three big payoffs he has delivered for favorite players as well, scoring with 2 of those and with a second favorite in his other three victories. While no trainer should ever be played blind, it is definitely worth looking at everything he enters.
George Weaver
(PLUS) - Selective, relatively unknown veteran conditioner has been coming here for a long time. His 5 winners from 19 starters equates to a 26.3% win ratio and his 10 for 19 first or second makes exacta players pretty happy. 3 of his 5 winners have paid off at double digits, with Unflagging lighting the tote-board at $62.50. As you might expect, that long shot helped create a $5.72 R.O.I.
(MINUS) - Not at his best with first time starters of any class level or on any surface. None of those categories exceeds 6%.
(Conclusion) - As long as his horses have run and shown any form or moves toward improvement at all, they have to be considered. He's likely to continue to be under-bet during the remaining two weeks, so other than first time starters, take a long hard look.
David Duggan
(PLUS) - He's another unknown conditioner that won't take false money. 36.3% win ratio from his 11 starters. Every one of the four has paid double digits, including Cagey Girl ($47.60) and Lyke A Hurricane ($26.60). He is equally at home in claimers and stakes races, Lyke A Hurricane is the former and Porte Bonheur ($17.00) won a stakes. As you might expect, the R.O.I. is off the charts...$9.31 for a $2 bet on every one of his starters.
(MINUS) - Not at this meet, unless you consider not having enough horses to run a minus.
Anyone can look at the standings and tell you that Todd Pletcher has three more winners at Saratoga than Richard Dutrow and four more than Steve Asmussen, Anthony Dutrow and Barclay Tagg. So what. Furthermore, if you can read you can know what their winning percentages are. Again, so what. If you don't know which one is a good bet and why, then you are throwing away your money. You'll understand what I mean after you read my trainer analysis below.
Usual Names Atop The Trainer's Standings...But Are They The Leaders?
Pletcher (12)...R. Dutrow (9)...Asmussen (8)...A. Dutrow (8)...Tagg (8)...Contessa (7)...McLaughlin (7)...Frankel (7)...recognizable names all, and all comprising the trainer's leader-board at Saratoga at the close of racing on Monday, August 18.
What all of these trainers also have in common is that they are on the short list of just about every player's "is [fill in a name from above] running anything in this race?" And it is that generic handicapping shortcut which creates a tremendous number of under-lays for those unique few who are willing to see beyond the stats...those unique few who make money at the race track.
The leaders above have been identified. Let's take a look at the standings for those trainers with 4 wins or more...including earnings.
Name Starts 1st 2nd 3rd Earnings
Todd A. Pletcher 52 12 5 7 $629,568
Richard E. Dutrow, Jr. 37 9 8 6 $551,175
Steven M. Asmussen 34 8 7 4 $721,603
Anthony W. Dutrow 22 8 4 5 $398,916
Barclay Tagg 27 8 3 2 $531,794
Gary C. Contessa 85 7 12 5 $451,359
Kiaran P. McLaughlin 36 7 5 8 $503,811
Robert J. Frankel 25 7 5 2 $546,891
Linda Rice 35 6 5 3 $283,611
Michael J. Maker 17 6 2 1 $196,166
Bruce N. Levine 35 5 8 6 $306,789
George Weaver 19 5 5 3 $306,435
Wesley A. Ward 16 5 1 3 $180,212
Nicholas P. Zito 36 4 6 3 $708,076
D. Wayne Lukas 41 4 3 1 $196,396
David P. Duggan 11 4 1 1 $173,527
The names are definitely part of the who's who list of conditioners. Pletcher has a comfortable lead over his nearest competitor and is winning at a healthy 23%. Those numbers can't help but give what I call a "glance handicapper" confidence that Pletcher will deliver for him. But if it is percentage that is important, wouldn't either Anthony Dutrow at 36.4% and Barclay Tagg at 29.6% be even better?
One could rationalization and tell a player, "sure, Dutrow and Tagg have a higher percentage, but they've also won four less times, so I wouldn't have cashed as many tickets, or had as much opportunity to be in play in an Exacta or Trifecta."
Of course if being in play in the exotics is your goal, then percentage wise you'd be well advised to hitch your hopes to Richard Dutrow, who has won at just under 25%, but is also on the board 62% of the time, or Bobby Frankel who wins at a 28% clip and has been first or second with just one shy of half his starts.
For the casual or recreational or even lazy everyday player...which of course makes up about 95% of people putting money through the windows...these leading trainer standings, even in so limited a manner, can provide some direction. The important question is can you ever become a winner playing with just this information?
One can look at the situation by breaking down the true value of even the most rudimentary statistics above in order to find the True Leading Trainers from that short group.that can be accomplished by giving you plusses and minuses for some of the trainers on the above list.
Todd Pletcher
(PLUS) - 23% win ratio...sharp with MSW runners, particularly 2-year olds as 5 of his 12 wins were maiden special weights and a sixth a maiden claimer. Usually has live horses in stakes races...already has three stakes wins.
(MINUS) - 10 of his 12 winners have been at single digits with no payoff higher than $10.60. His R.O.I. for all 52 starters is $1.31. Although his R.O.I. in maiden races is better, it still does not pass the Takeout Threshold*.
*The Takeout Threshold is the level at which a Return On Investment (R.O.I.) surpasses what the track takes out of each bet. For a Win Bet the average nationwide is about 16%. Since the majority of players are recreational or amateur and as a practice the highest percentage of those will, over time, lose what the track takes out, an R.O.I. of $1.68 per $2 bet would mean a player is breaking even based on pool distribution minus that takeout. Below the Takeout Threshold is unacceptable. Above it, and up to $2.00 is acceptable. Anything above $2.00 as an R.O.I. is very acceptable...the higher the better.
Conclusion - Unless you can find the one or two very specific situations where a bet on Pletcher is a plus (and only my clients get that when I recommend a horse the conditioner enters) you have three choices... bet knowing you are playing a negative percentage underlay, pass the race altogether or try to beat him with a horse you think slightly less probable but much better priced.
Richard Dutrow
(PLUS) - 24% win ratio and 46% first and second combined. R.O.I. for all 37 starters is $2.07. He has already had a pair of double digit winners, topped by Acai at $26.20.
(MINUS) - Not particularly adept with grass runners when compared to his overall success rate. But very few pronounced weaknesses otherwise.
(Conclusion) - There is every reason to use him on top and in the exacta if you feel you have the right horse. Dutrow is particularly strong at reading race conditions as 3 of his 9 wins have come in often difficult to match up allowance/optional claimers and a 4th in a straight allowance. He has also saddled a pair of stakes winners and a trio of MSW winners, two of which are juveniles. This would tell me that he never wastes a race and is adept at getting a horse ready for the level he should be running at.
Steve Asmussen
(PLUS) - 23.5% win ratio and 44.1% place ratio. Terrific R.O.I. of $3.12 on all 34 starters. Very strong with juveniles, both first and second time starters...6 of his 8 winners have been 2-year old maidens, 5 of those MSW runners.
(MINUS) - Streaky trainer whose specialty pigeon-holes him. 4 of his 8 winners came in his first 6 starters at the meet.
(Conclusion) - If you didn't go to the wedding on the first two days of the meet when he grabbed 4 winners you might want to consider that he is 4 for 28 (14.3%) since. However, his R.O.I. on those 28 starters is still $2.04 because he had a $25.80 winner (Warm Country) and a $17.00 winner (Kensai) from his most recent quartet. You should look long and hard before you toss or bet against any of his juvenile runners.
Anthony Dutrow
(PLUS) - 36.4% win ratio and 54.5% finish first or second. Selective trainer only runs when he believes he can win. Steady record as 4 wins in first two weeks and 4 wins in second two weeks would indicate. Even though not a single one of his 8 winners has paid double digits, he has still posted a strong $2.15 R.O.I.
(MINUS) - Like his brother very few negatives. Never a big price. Not particularly strong with maidens, at least not as strong as he used to be.
(Conclusion) - There is nothing sexy about his entrants, but as he also wins in those specifically conditioned allowance/optional claimers (3 of his 8 victories) and straight claimers (2 wins) you know he is putting his horses in the right spots. If you are the type of player who is patient, is willing to focus on the percentage trainers that always run horses that have a chance to win and in the long run will give you a profit, you can do a lot worse than Anthony Dutrow.
Barclay Tagg
(PLUS) - 29.6% win ratio. Has a $2.15 R.O.I. from his 27 starters. Has won three stakes races. Is also hot right now as 6 of his 8 wins have come in the last two weeks.
(MINUS) - Overall percentages and R.O.I. are not anywhere near as strong with debut MSW, overall MSW and even lesser with turf maidens...his debut with turf MSW for instance is only 7%.
(Conclusion) - Tagg has always kept a smaller barn...although he is now bigger than he has been in the past...so he concentrates on upper echelon racing. While not a "society" trainer he nonetheless will be found in the allowance and stakes ranks. While that makes things more competitive for him he more than holds his own...and because he isn't as high profile as Pletcher, Frankel, McLaughlin, Dutrow, Mott, et al, you can usually get value. Take a long hard look at anything he enters.
Gary Contessa
(PLUS) - Every once in a while will unleash a long shot, as he did with French Song ($30.60) last week. Wins his share with sheer numbers.
(MINUS) - Only 7 winners from 85 starters, a very low 8.3% win ratio. Too often settles for support roles...almost twice as many seconds (12) as wins. His R.O.I. for his 85 starters is $0.98.
(Conclusion) - Because he is predominantly a claiming trainer with a high turnover in his barn he is subject to plenty of hot and as is the case now, very cold streaks. Right now he is even colder than his overall low percentage. He came here with a few ready to win claimers, grabbing 5 victories during the opening two weeks. Over the last two weeks he's had just 2. At this point the only possibility is to use a live horse in the exacta due to his "seconditis" but even that isn't a gimmee. Probably wise to bet against him unless he suddenly gets hot in the last two weeks.
Kieran McLaughlin
(PLUS) - Always a threat to have a horse ready and does improve them. 19.5% win ratio and 55.5% on-the-board number are above the norm.
(MINUS) - Only first or second 33% of the time. R.O.I. for all 36 runners is only $1.31, with only one double-digit payout and 4 of the 7 at $5.40 or less. Struggling with his better horses with 3 wins in MSW ranks and 2 winners from claimers.
(Conclusion) - Right now the usually reliable McLaughlin is struggling. Whether he came to Saratoga under bad timing situations where some of his better ones weren't in the right form cycle is irrelevant. Whatever the reason, he isn't producing and things are made worse by the fact that he is too often over-bet anyway.
Bob Frankel
(PLUS) - Never, never, never runs for the sake of running. 28% win ratio and first or second 50% of the time.
(MINUS) - His R.O.I. from his 24 starters is $1.44. He has only had one winner pay double-digits with 6 of the remaining 7 at $6.70 or less and 5 at $4.40 or less.
(Conclusion) - It is very seldom that a well-meant Frankel horse presents value, but more often than not, when his horses are ignored, or softly supported they fail to run well. That can help you shy away from him.
Michael Maker
(PLUS) - Unknown trainer on the NY Circuit means he's not going to get false public money. 35% win ratio from his 17 starters and solid win to place advantage means he's all or nothing. 3 of his 6 winners have been at double digits, including $27.00 Skills Coach. His R.O.I. on all 17 starters is an amazing $4.31 and 5 of the 6 winners have come in the last two weeks.
(MINUS) - Will keep looking for it.
(Conclusion) - He isn't trying to put anything over on anyone. His horses are well-prepared and well-spotted. In addition to his three big payoffs he has delivered for favorite players as well, scoring with 2 of those and with a second favorite in his other three victories. While no trainer should ever be played blind, it is definitely worth looking at everything he enters.
George Weaver
(PLUS) - Selective, relatively unknown veteran conditioner has been coming here for a long time. His 5 winners from 19 starters equates to a 26.3% win ratio and his 10 for 19 first or second makes exacta players pretty happy. 3 of his 5 winners have paid off at double digits, with Unflagging lighting the tote-board at $62.50. As you might expect, that long shot helped create a $5.72 R.O.I.
(MINUS) - Not at his best with first time starters of any class level or on any surface. None of those categories exceeds 6%.
(Conclusion) - As long as his horses have run and shown any form or moves toward improvement at all, they have to be considered. He's likely to continue to be under-bet during the remaining two weeks, so other than first time starters, take a long hard look.
David Duggan
(PLUS) - He's another unknown conditioner that won't take false money. 36.3% win ratio from his 11 starters. Every one of the four has paid double digits, including Cagey Girl ($47.60) and Lyke A Hurricane ($26.60). He is equally at home in claimers and stakes races, Lyke A Hurricane is the former and Porte Bonheur ($17.00) won a stakes. As you might expect, the R.O.I. is off the charts...$9.31 for a $2 bet on every one of his starters.
(MINUS) - Not at this meet, unless you consider not having enough horses to run a minus.
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