BREEDERS CUP 2008 ANALYSIS, PREVIEW, AND OVERVIEW - Friday
Trotman
Senior Member
BREEDERS CUP 2008 ANALYSIS, PREVIEW, AND OVERVIEW
By Noel Michaels
The era of synthetic surfaces will impact horse racings year-end championships for the first time this year when the 2008 Breeders Cup World Thoroughbred Championships is held on the new Pro Ride Cushion Track artificial surface at Santa Anita Park in Southern California on Friday and Saturday, Oct. 24-25.
The 2008 Breeders Cup will be the first to be run on a synthetic surface, and will mark the second time it will be held as a two-day event after 2007s inaugural Friday Breeders Cup program at Monmouth Park added three new races the Dirt Mile, Filly & Mare Sprint, and Juvenile Turf. This year, three more new races, including the Turf Sprint, Juvenile Fillies Turf, and the Marathon, will be added to the Breeders Cup card for the first time, meaning that the Breeders Cup has expanded from eight races to 14 races and from $14 million in purses to $25.5 million in the span of just two years.
This year will be the seventh time the Breeders Cup has been held in Southern California, and the fourth time the event has been held at Santa Anita. The 2008 Breeders Cup, however, will be dramatically different from the three past Breeders Cups conducted at Santa Anita. For the last two years, Santa Anita has conducted its main track racing on artificial surfaces. Its current racing surface, a synthetic track called Pro Ride, was just recently installed in advance of Santa Anitas current Oak Tree meet that started in September.
The first artificial track Breeders Cup at Santa Anita is a groundbreaking yet controversial move for the World Thoroughbred Championships. The event will be groundbreaking because it will mark the first time in the 25-year history of the Breeders Cup that main track races will be run on a synthetic surface. The move is controversial, however, because year-end divisional champions are often determined on Breeders Cup Day, and whether or not its fair to have main track Eclipse Awards hinging on synthetic surface results is still open to debate.
On the plus side, however, the artificial track has resulted in this years Breeders Cup being bay far the most international Breeders Cup in the history of the event, with European horses entered prominently in nearly every race over the two-day event. Evidently, the Euro contingent that is mostly unwilling to take on their North American counterparts on dirt are more apt to take a crack at us on the synthetic surface.
So far, through observation of the Santa Anita Pro-Ride surface for the past month at the current Oak Tree meet, I have seen a track surface that seems to play fairly to all running paths and running styles. Front-running wins are not as common as they used to be in Southern California, either on the old dirt tracks or on Hollywoods and Santa Anitas old Cushion Track surface. Horses can still go wire-to-wire these days at Santa Anita, especially if able to get clear on the lead as a lone speed runner in the race. However, if a horse has to battle for the lead, unless it can dictate the pace, it is difficult to go all the way as these types of contested pace races generally set up for closers and/or stalkers.
The new Breeders Cup races from both last year and this year have resulted in major changes to the Breeders Cups schedule, which included a Friday card for the first time in 2007. New for this year, the Breeders Cup will card all five of its races for female horses on Friday, with the remaining nine races making up the traditional Breeders Cup Saturday card. Fridays purses will now total $8 million, capped off by the featured $2 million Distaff, which has been renamed the Ladies Classic.
2008 BREEDERS CUP SCHEDULE
Friday, Oct. 24
Race Purse____
Filly & Mare Sprint $1 million
Juvenile Fillies Turf $1 million
Juvenile Fillies $2 million
Filly & Mare Turf $2 million
Ladies Classic (Distaff) $2 million
Saturday, Oct. 25
Race Purse____
Marathon $500,000
Turf Sprint $1 million
Dirt Mile $1 million
Turf Mile $2 million
Juvenile $2 million
Juvenile Turf $1 million
Sprint $2 million
Turf $3 million
Classic $5 million
The new Breeders Cup race schedule works out pretty well, and for the most part, the new races are welcome additions to the Breeders Cup program. Turf races for juveniles, including races for both males and females certainly have their places on Breeders Cup weekend, as does a sprint race restricted to fillies and mares and a Breeders Cup turf sprint race, since turf sprints are the most rapidly expanding segment of racing in condition books across the country.
A pair of other races, however, seem like highly-suspect additions to Breeders Cup weekend the Marathon and the Dirt Mile.
The objections to the marathon are obvious. Graded dirt races at a mile and a half are a rarity in this county, and the horses that end up pointing to this event will never be a Grade 1 caliber group. In its first year of inclusion on Breeders Cup weekend, the Marathon was not even deemed worthy of a million-dollar purse (its $500,000). Then why, I ask, is the race worthy of a spot on Breeders Cup Saturday?
In the two years since the creation of the new Breeders Cup Dirt Mile race, the so-far inappropriately named race has yet to be run both at a mile and on the dirt in the same season. Last years inaugural Dirt Mile was actually run at 1 mile & 70 yards at Monmouth Park, and this years Dirt Mile wont be run on dirt at all, but rather, on Santa Anitas new Pro-Ride synthetic surface, which was recently installed in advance of the current Oak Tree at Santa Anita meet that began on Sept. 24. It is doubtful that the Pro-Ride Mile was what the Breeders Cup had in mind when they first created the race last year.
After years of outcry for the creation of a new Dirt Mile race to be added to the Breeders Cup program, the Dirt Mile has unfortunately already become mostly an afterthought in hearts and minds of horseplayers in the big picture of Breeders Cup weekend. Instead of championship deciding race, the event has taken just two years to become something of a consolation prize a $1 million Grade 2 caliber race, if you will for horses that are not good enough to point for the richer Classic, or fast enough to point for the shorter Sprint. What we are left with is a mish-mash of contenders from across the county who must either settle for this spot on Breeders Cup Day, or choose to skip the festivities altogether.
Could or should the Breeders Cup be re-condensed into a one-day event? Well, that is still up to debate. What we have for now is a whirlwind two-day Breeders Cup extravaganza with five races for fillies and mares carded for Friday, followed by the nine-race Breeders Cup main course on Saturday. Following is a brief overview of this years two-day Breeders Cup World Thoroughbred Championships.
FRIDAY
Filly & Mare Sprint
The filly and mare Breeders Cup sprinters have been challenged more than their male counterparts with this 7 furlong race that kicks off Breeders Cup weekend. The big morning-line favorite in this race is INDIAN BLESSING, and deservedly so based on her perfect 5-for-5 career record in one-turn races for trainer Bob Baffert (shes also last years Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies champion). Nevertheless, Indian Blessing is not the key to this race. That distinction goes to 8-1 odds morning-line shot ZAFTIG, who romped over Indian Blessing in the one-mile Acorn back in June but has not been seen ever since. If Zaftig can return from the 4+ month layoff as the same horse she was when we last saw her, shell obviously be a huge threat. If not, this will be Indian Blessings race to win or lose.
Several others in this field seem a little bit questionable on the artificial surface, including, most notably, INTAGAROO, while others may have difficult assignments on a likely to be contested front-end pace at this 7 furlong distance including the likes of INDYANNE, and DREAM RUSH.
And so if youre looking for other contenders in this race, try to zero-in on SoCal-based runners such as DEAREST TRICKSKI, who is 2-for-2 at 7 furlongs on artificial surfaces, TIZZYS TUNE, who may not be good enough but at least is proven on this track and likes 6 ½-7 furlongs the best, and last but not least VENTURA, a live late-runner who seems well-suited to pick up the pieces late in the event of a pace meltdown. Ventura has won her last two artificial track races, and more recently exits a G1 win on turf at a mile over males in the Woodbine Mile.
Juvenile Fillies Turf
This race is anybodys guess if the morning line favorite LARAGH goes down in flames as chalk off her big-figure, 4 ¾-length win in the Jessamine Stakes at Keeneland earlier this month. Europe does not seem to have shown up for this race with its heavy hitters, so the Juvenile Fillies Turf looks ripe to be picked by the North American ranks here, including Canadian C KARMA, who was victorious last time out in the Natalma Stakes when switched to turf for the first time after a solid career up until that point on Polytrack.
Once you get past the favorite, every other horse pretty much looks alike in this race, including the locally-based horses and a large group of East Coast-based hopefuls that unfortunately will not include any standouts. The biggest and most interesting x-factor in the race, therefore, will be SUGAR MOM, who hails from the high-percentage Wayne Catalano / Frank Calabrese connections. Sugar Mom has never tried turf, but seems turf-meant and has been much-improved since stretching out in her last two races, which include a 12-length allowance win and a score in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies last time out.
Juvenile Fillies
This is another race that could feature major chalk, or a major longshot depending on the performance of big favorite STARDOM BOUND, who exits an easy win in the Oak Leaf over this track to account for her second Grade 1 win in a row (also won the Del Mar Debutante). There is no doubting Stardom Bounds ability or liking for the track, but there are many who question the quality of the competition she has faced so far, which is enough to leave the door open ever-so-slightly for those looking to knock off the big favorite.
If you draw a line through the other SoCal fillies entered in this race besides Stardom Bound, you still have no shortage of potential upsetters in this field, including challengers from New York (Persistently and Sky Diva), Kentucky (Dream Empress), Chicago (C. S. Silk), and Europe (Pursuit of Glory).
PURSUIT OF GLORY has never been longer than six furlongs so far in her three-race career, yet is unquestionably bred to go this added distance and has already earned a win on an artificial surface in Ireland before getting back on grass on running a close third in a Group 1 race last time out. C.S. SILK has also made the most of her lone artificial track outing so far, which in her case was an immensely impressive wire-to-wire six-length romp in the Arlington Washington Lassie. The Easts big name contender is SKY DIVA, who has won her two races so far by a combined 14 lengths capped off by a 3 ¾-length win in the Grade 1 Frizette. Shes never won on an artificial surface, but she has been training on one frequently in Fair Hill, Maryland. Finally, dont forget about PERSISTENTLY, who lost to Sky Diva in the Frizette, but should love this added distance and has an off-the-pace running style that seems suited to success at Santa Anita.
Filly & Mare Turf
Saturdays loss will be Fridays gain this year with this very competitive top-notch Grade 1 betting race moved a day earlier this year just in time for what should be a great race. When all is said and done, this barn-burner should boil down to a four-horse battle royale between Folk Opera, Halfway to Heaven, Mauralakana, and Wait a While.
FOLK OPERA is back in North America after going wire-to-wire earlier this month with first-time Lasix in the G1 E. P. Taylor. She is now a perfect 3-for-3 at this 1 ¼-mile distance, which makes her extremely dangerous with Lasix and rider Frankie Dettori once again lined up for Friday. Europes other top contender in this race, HALFWAY TO HEAVEN, looks no less imposing after having won a trio of Group 1 events already this year. She might be better at one mile than at 1 ¼ miles, but one of her Group 1 wins this year did come at 1 ¼ miles, so she certainly cannot be counted out for trainer Aidan OBrien.
Horses who may be a bit more recognizable to U.S. race fans in here will include major contenders MAURALAKANA and WAIT A WHILE. Mauralakana lost her most recent prep race, but that race won on yielding turf, and not the kind of firm turf that she prefers. Given firm turf, expect a better effort from Mauralakana similar to the ones that resulted in three straight Grade 1 and 2 wins this season capped off with her victory in the Beverly D. at Arlington. Another horse in this field that can be counted on for her best effort when on firm turf is Wait a While, who comes out of her second career Yellow Ribbon win and is now 3-for-3 lifetime at Santa Anita, and 3-for-4 lifetime at this distance of 1 ¼ miles.
Ladies Classic (formerly Distaff)
The weekends biggest favorite will be the sensational undefeated ZENYATTA, who has racked up a perfect 8-for-8 record so far including 6-for-6 this year and has the additional home-field advantage working in her favor over the numerous Eastern invaders lining up to take her on in Fridays feature. Zenyattas SoCal winning streak even includes a prep race victory on Santa Anitas new racing surface in a test that she passed with flying colors. The only possible vulnerability for Zenyatta here would perhaps be the distance of 1 1/8 miles, which arguably might be a sixteenth beyond her preferred distance. Couple that with her rail post, which is the first time shes ever drawn the rail, and Im still not sure shell be threatened in this race, but remember, anything can happen in a horserace once the gates open.
Defending champion GINGER PUNCH perhaps may not be quite as good this year as she was last year based on the fact he form seems to have tailed off a bit after a loss in the Beldame last time following back-to-back squeaker victories. She has run well and won on artificial tracks in the past, but those races did not seem to be her best. Last years BC Distaff runner-up, HYSTERICALADY, is back in this race again, too, but while she does look like one of the contenders, shes more likely to finish in the money than she is to win again this year based on her loss to Zenyatta last time out.
Godolphin has a strong one-two punch in this field with 3-year-old multiple Grade 1 winner MUSIC NOTE and Beldame-winning older filly COCOA BEACH (who kocked off Ginger Punch) both entered in the Ladies Classic. Of the two, Music Note has compiled the more impressive season, but Cocoa Beach seems like the horse with the most upside. Between the two horses, no one would be two surprised if one of them ran a big race, at least for second.
Finally, the other horse to watch here is CARRIAGE TRAIL, a synthetic track specialist coming off a 7+ length win in the Spinster Stakes at Keeneland which brought her artificial track record to 3 wins in 4 outings so far. Perhaps shes a cut below some of these, but he track surface could be enough to make up the difference if she turns out to like Pro-Ride as well as she likes Polytrack
By Noel Michaels
The era of synthetic surfaces will impact horse racings year-end championships for the first time this year when the 2008 Breeders Cup World Thoroughbred Championships is held on the new Pro Ride Cushion Track artificial surface at Santa Anita Park in Southern California on Friday and Saturday, Oct. 24-25.
The 2008 Breeders Cup will be the first to be run on a synthetic surface, and will mark the second time it will be held as a two-day event after 2007s inaugural Friday Breeders Cup program at Monmouth Park added three new races the Dirt Mile, Filly & Mare Sprint, and Juvenile Turf. This year, three more new races, including the Turf Sprint, Juvenile Fillies Turf, and the Marathon, will be added to the Breeders Cup card for the first time, meaning that the Breeders Cup has expanded from eight races to 14 races and from $14 million in purses to $25.5 million in the span of just two years.
This year will be the seventh time the Breeders Cup has been held in Southern California, and the fourth time the event has been held at Santa Anita. The 2008 Breeders Cup, however, will be dramatically different from the three past Breeders Cups conducted at Santa Anita. For the last two years, Santa Anita has conducted its main track racing on artificial surfaces. Its current racing surface, a synthetic track called Pro Ride, was just recently installed in advance of Santa Anitas current Oak Tree meet that started in September.
The first artificial track Breeders Cup at Santa Anita is a groundbreaking yet controversial move for the World Thoroughbred Championships. The event will be groundbreaking because it will mark the first time in the 25-year history of the Breeders Cup that main track races will be run on a synthetic surface. The move is controversial, however, because year-end divisional champions are often determined on Breeders Cup Day, and whether or not its fair to have main track Eclipse Awards hinging on synthetic surface results is still open to debate.
On the plus side, however, the artificial track has resulted in this years Breeders Cup being bay far the most international Breeders Cup in the history of the event, with European horses entered prominently in nearly every race over the two-day event. Evidently, the Euro contingent that is mostly unwilling to take on their North American counterparts on dirt are more apt to take a crack at us on the synthetic surface.
So far, through observation of the Santa Anita Pro-Ride surface for the past month at the current Oak Tree meet, I have seen a track surface that seems to play fairly to all running paths and running styles. Front-running wins are not as common as they used to be in Southern California, either on the old dirt tracks or on Hollywoods and Santa Anitas old Cushion Track surface. Horses can still go wire-to-wire these days at Santa Anita, especially if able to get clear on the lead as a lone speed runner in the race. However, if a horse has to battle for the lead, unless it can dictate the pace, it is difficult to go all the way as these types of contested pace races generally set up for closers and/or stalkers.
The new Breeders Cup races from both last year and this year have resulted in major changes to the Breeders Cups schedule, which included a Friday card for the first time in 2007. New for this year, the Breeders Cup will card all five of its races for female horses on Friday, with the remaining nine races making up the traditional Breeders Cup Saturday card. Fridays purses will now total $8 million, capped off by the featured $2 million Distaff, which has been renamed the Ladies Classic.
2008 BREEDERS CUP SCHEDULE
Friday, Oct. 24
Race Purse____
Filly & Mare Sprint $1 million
Juvenile Fillies Turf $1 million
Juvenile Fillies $2 million
Filly & Mare Turf $2 million
Ladies Classic (Distaff) $2 million
Saturday, Oct. 25
Race Purse____
Marathon $500,000
Turf Sprint $1 million
Dirt Mile $1 million
Turf Mile $2 million
Juvenile $2 million
Juvenile Turf $1 million
Sprint $2 million
Turf $3 million
Classic $5 million
The new Breeders Cup race schedule works out pretty well, and for the most part, the new races are welcome additions to the Breeders Cup program. Turf races for juveniles, including races for both males and females certainly have their places on Breeders Cup weekend, as does a sprint race restricted to fillies and mares and a Breeders Cup turf sprint race, since turf sprints are the most rapidly expanding segment of racing in condition books across the country.
A pair of other races, however, seem like highly-suspect additions to Breeders Cup weekend the Marathon and the Dirt Mile.
The objections to the marathon are obvious. Graded dirt races at a mile and a half are a rarity in this county, and the horses that end up pointing to this event will never be a Grade 1 caliber group. In its first year of inclusion on Breeders Cup weekend, the Marathon was not even deemed worthy of a million-dollar purse (its $500,000). Then why, I ask, is the race worthy of a spot on Breeders Cup Saturday?
In the two years since the creation of the new Breeders Cup Dirt Mile race, the so-far inappropriately named race has yet to be run both at a mile and on the dirt in the same season. Last years inaugural Dirt Mile was actually run at 1 mile & 70 yards at Monmouth Park, and this years Dirt Mile wont be run on dirt at all, but rather, on Santa Anitas new Pro-Ride synthetic surface, which was recently installed in advance of the current Oak Tree at Santa Anita meet that began on Sept. 24. It is doubtful that the Pro-Ride Mile was what the Breeders Cup had in mind when they first created the race last year.
After years of outcry for the creation of a new Dirt Mile race to be added to the Breeders Cup program, the Dirt Mile has unfortunately already become mostly an afterthought in hearts and minds of horseplayers in the big picture of Breeders Cup weekend. Instead of championship deciding race, the event has taken just two years to become something of a consolation prize a $1 million Grade 2 caliber race, if you will for horses that are not good enough to point for the richer Classic, or fast enough to point for the shorter Sprint. What we are left with is a mish-mash of contenders from across the county who must either settle for this spot on Breeders Cup Day, or choose to skip the festivities altogether.
Could or should the Breeders Cup be re-condensed into a one-day event? Well, that is still up to debate. What we have for now is a whirlwind two-day Breeders Cup extravaganza with five races for fillies and mares carded for Friday, followed by the nine-race Breeders Cup main course on Saturday. Following is a brief overview of this years two-day Breeders Cup World Thoroughbred Championships.
FRIDAY
Filly & Mare Sprint
The filly and mare Breeders Cup sprinters have been challenged more than their male counterparts with this 7 furlong race that kicks off Breeders Cup weekend. The big morning-line favorite in this race is INDIAN BLESSING, and deservedly so based on her perfect 5-for-5 career record in one-turn races for trainer Bob Baffert (shes also last years Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies champion). Nevertheless, Indian Blessing is not the key to this race. That distinction goes to 8-1 odds morning-line shot ZAFTIG, who romped over Indian Blessing in the one-mile Acorn back in June but has not been seen ever since. If Zaftig can return from the 4+ month layoff as the same horse she was when we last saw her, shell obviously be a huge threat. If not, this will be Indian Blessings race to win or lose.
Several others in this field seem a little bit questionable on the artificial surface, including, most notably, INTAGAROO, while others may have difficult assignments on a likely to be contested front-end pace at this 7 furlong distance including the likes of INDYANNE, and DREAM RUSH.
And so if youre looking for other contenders in this race, try to zero-in on SoCal-based runners such as DEAREST TRICKSKI, who is 2-for-2 at 7 furlongs on artificial surfaces, TIZZYS TUNE, who may not be good enough but at least is proven on this track and likes 6 ½-7 furlongs the best, and last but not least VENTURA, a live late-runner who seems well-suited to pick up the pieces late in the event of a pace meltdown. Ventura has won her last two artificial track races, and more recently exits a G1 win on turf at a mile over males in the Woodbine Mile.
Juvenile Fillies Turf
This race is anybodys guess if the morning line favorite LARAGH goes down in flames as chalk off her big-figure, 4 ¾-length win in the Jessamine Stakes at Keeneland earlier this month. Europe does not seem to have shown up for this race with its heavy hitters, so the Juvenile Fillies Turf looks ripe to be picked by the North American ranks here, including Canadian C KARMA, who was victorious last time out in the Natalma Stakes when switched to turf for the first time after a solid career up until that point on Polytrack.
Once you get past the favorite, every other horse pretty much looks alike in this race, including the locally-based horses and a large group of East Coast-based hopefuls that unfortunately will not include any standouts. The biggest and most interesting x-factor in the race, therefore, will be SUGAR MOM, who hails from the high-percentage Wayne Catalano / Frank Calabrese connections. Sugar Mom has never tried turf, but seems turf-meant and has been much-improved since stretching out in her last two races, which include a 12-length allowance win and a score in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies last time out.
Juvenile Fillies
This is another race that could feature major chalk, or a major longshot depending on the performance of big favorite STARDOM BOUND, who exits an easy win in the Oak Leaf over this track to account for her second Grade 1 win in a row (also won the Del Mar Debutante). There is no doubting Stardom Bounds ability or liking for the track, but there are many who question the quality of the competition she has faced so far, which is enough to leave the door open ever-so-slightly for those looking to knock off the big favorite.
If you draw a line through the other SoCal fillies entered in this race besides Stardom Bound, you still have no shortage of potential upsetters in this field, including challengers from New York (Persistently and Sky Diva), Kentucky (Dream Empress), Chicago (C. S. Silk), and Europe (Pursuit of Glory).
PURSUIT OF GLORY has never been longer than six furlongs so far in her three-race career, yet is unquestionably bred to go this added distance and has already earned a win on an artificial surface in Ireland before getting back on grass on running a close third in a Group 1 race last time out. C.S. SILK has also made the most of her lone artificial track outing so far, which in her case was an immensely impressive wire-to-wire six-length romp in the Arlington Washington Lassie. The Easts big name contender is SKY DIVA, who has won her two races so far by a combined 14 lengths capped off by a 3 ¾-length win in the Grade 1 Frizette. Shes never won on an artificial surface, but she has been training on one frequently in Fair Hill, Maryland. Finally, dont forget about PERSISTENTLY, who lost to Sky Diva in the Frizette, but should love this added distance and has an off-the-pace running style that seems suited to success at Santa Anita.
Filly & Mare Turf
Saturdays loss will be Fridays gain this year with this very competitive top-notch Grade 1 betting race moved a day earlier this year just in time for what should be a great race. When all is said and done, this barn-burner should boil down to a four-horse battle royale between Folk Opera, Halfway to Heaven, Mauralakana, and Wait a While.
FOLK OPERA is back in North America after going wire-to-wire earlier this month with first-time Lasix in the G1 E. P. Taylor. She is now a perfect 3-for-3 at this 1 ¼-mile distance, which makes her extremely dangerous with Lasix and rider Frankie Dettori once again lined up for Friday. Europes other top contender in this race, HALFWAY TO HEAVEN, looks no less imposing after having won a trio of Group 1 events already this year. She might be better at one mile than at 1 ¼ miles, but one of her Group 1 wins this year did come at 1 ¼ miles, so she certainly cannot be counted out for trainer Aidan OBrien.
Horses who may be a bit more recognizable to U.S. race fans in here will include major contenders MAURALAKANA and WAIT A WHILE. Mauralakana lost her most recent prep race, but that race won on yielding turf, and not the kind of firm turf that she prefers. Given firm turf, expect a better effort from Mauralakana similar to the ones that resulted in three straight Grade 1 and 2 wins this season capped off with her victory in the Beverly D. at Arlington. Another horse in this field that can be counted on for her best effort when on firm turf is Wait a While, who comes out of her second career Yellow Ribbon win and is now 3-for-3 lifetime at Santa Anita, and 3-for-4 lifetime at this distance of 1 ¼ miles.
Ladies Classic (formerly Distaff)
The weekends biggest favorite will be the sensational undefeated ZENYATTA, who has racked up a perfect 8-for-8 record so far including 6-for-6 this year and has the additional home-field advantage working in her favor over the numerous Eastern invaders lining up to take her on in Fridays feature. Zenyattas SoCal winning streak even includes a prep race victory on Santa Anitas new racing surface in a test that she passed with flying colors. The only possible vulnerability for Zenyatta here would perhaps be the distance of 1 1/8 miles, which arguably might be a sixteenth beyond her preferred distance. Couple that with her rail post, which is the first time shes ever drawn the rail, and Im still not sure shell be threatened in this race, but remember, anything can happen in a horserace once the gates open.
Defending champion GINGER PUNCH perhaps may not be quite as good this year as she was last year based on the fact he form seems to have tailed off a bit after a loss in the Beldame last time following back-to-back squeaker victories. She has run well and won on artificial tracks in the past, but those races did not seem to be her best. Last years BC Distaff runner-up, HYSTERICALADY, is back in this race again, too, but while she does look like one of the contenders, shes more likely to finish in the money than she is to win again this year based on her loss to Zenyatta last time out.
Godolphin has a strong one-two punch in this field with 3-year-old multiple Grade 1 winner MUSIC NOTE and Beldame-winning older filly COCOA BEACH (who kocked off Ginger Punch) both entered in the Ladies Classic. Of the two, Music Note has compiled the more impressive season, but Cocoa Beach seems like the horse with the most upside. Between the two horses, no one would be two surprised if one of them ran a big race, at least for second.
Finally, the other horse to watch here is CARRIAGE TRAIL, a synthetic track specialist coming off a 7+ length win in the Spinster Stakes at Keeneland which brought her artificial track record to 3 wins in 4 outings so far. Perhaps shes a cut below some of these, but he track surface could be enough to make up the difference if she turns out to like Pro-Ride as well as she likes Polytrack