More Breeder's Cup Analysis
Trotman
Senior Member
Breeders' Cup Countdown -
IT STARTS WITH A MARATHON AND ENDS WITH A CLASSIC.
NINE COMPETITIVE BREEDERS' CUP RACES FILL SATURDAY WITH OPPORTUNITY!!
Fourteen races spread over two days with 173 horses entered. If more is better, the new generation of administrators and marketers for the Breeders' Cup has certainly fulfilled that mission. The five Breeders' Cup races that will be run on Friday have drawn 59 runners (including a pair of also eligible runners for the Juvenile Filly Turf) while Saturday's nine Championship races saw a total of 114 entered (including an also eligible for the Juvenile Turf.)
If you haven't started handicapping these races as of yet you might run out of time. . There are so many variables to consider it will make an individual player's head spin.
IT'S EVEN TOO LATE TO CRAM...HERE ARE SOME "CLIFF NOTES."
Over the next few days you are going to read, hear and accidentally stumble upon a lot of weird trend and pattern oriented supposition regarding these Breeders' Cup races. Most of it will come from talking heads that pay attention to horse racing only during the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders' Cup.
You know the guys and gals being referenced. The local cable news sports personalities that rush back to the studios after covering the latest high school football games, or the Network guys that spend hours on end in the locker room with Terrell Owens or Brett Favre or in the Pits with Kyle Bush but couldn't find the paddock or finish line at a race track with a GPS. Stop listening...even if you are an amateur or a veteran that finds these Breeders' Cup races particularly difficult, you know more than those guys.
The Breeders' Cup Marathon
The 9 horses entered in the inaugural running of the Breeders' Cup Marathon, a 1 ½ mile run over the Pro-Ride surface have earned just a few bucks shy of $4 Million. But you can be forgiven if you aren't as familiar with most of them as you are with the entrants in most of the other Breeders' Cup races because only five have ever won any level Graded or Group Stakes. They are hard knockers that can run all day and have either been just good enough to fail vs better, improving enough to warrant a try or in the case of two European shippers, not good enough to fit in the Mile, Turf or Classic, but perhaps good enough to win this.
The two European shippers are Sixties Icon, who based, apparently on his three straight Group III victories on the turf in England, has been installed as the 2-1 ML favorite. He also has the highest winning percentage, having been successful in 8 of 16 tries and is the highest money earner with $995,007. It will be his first dirt try, but overall, grass to synthetic dirt transitions have been quite successful. Frankie Dettori, who has a number of live mounts during this year's Championships, will take the irons from Jeremy Noseda.
On the other end of the invading spectrum is 20-2 ML Muhannak. The 4-year old Chester House gelding has raced on both Polytrack and grass overseas, but has faced much lesser than his fellow traveler. He does have a win at the distance, however, and has won 4 of his last 6 dating back to October of 2007.
Based on the company he's kept, Zappa would have to be considered a major player given his drop down from a pair of not disgraceful attempts. The 6-year old John Sadler trainee has closed with interest vs the likes of Well Armed, Go Between, Mast Track, Tiago and Albertus Maximus, each of whom will be racing for black type and bigger money during the afternoon. His performances in the Grade I Goodwood and Grade I Pacific Classic should put him in good stead here.
Church Service is another that has kept his nose in the game in Graded company, having contested his last 5 vs level II and level III opponents. The Mike Mitchell trainee has posted a win and a pair of seconds in those tries, though only one has been off the turf. In that one race, however, he was beaten just a nose at the mile and a half distance.
Another recent winner at the distance is Delightful Kiss, who has won two straight Grade III events and might finally be ready at the end of his 4-year old campaign to begin showing the promise he hinted at with wins in the Grade II Ohio Derby and the Iowa Derby last year.
Big Booster and Cedar Mountain also have the credentials to contend for a piece. The former will be making his 47th career start (10-2-9) and enters following a rallying third behind Zappa in the mile and a half Cougar II Handicap at Del Mar. Cedar Mountain is the most lightly raced with only 10 career starts and does return to the "dirt" after 7 straight on grass. He did run well in his two European Polytrack races. He'll make his first start since finishing second in the 12 furlong Grade II Sunset Handicap at Hollywood in mid-July.
Add Heat and Booyah complete the field. Both appear to be stepping up in class. The former has only one win in his last twenty starts vs Cal-breds and allowance runners while Booyah comes off a win in a Fairplex Handicap and has never been the distance. The latter could contribute to the pace, but appears hard pressed to extend his speed.
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
The world of turf sprinting doesn't have a large following or a number of high profile graded races, so it isn't so easy to line competitors up based on class experience. That fact couldn't be better amplified than by the two ML favorites being Get Funky (9-2) a 5-year old horse that didn't even win a Grade III race in his final prep and Fleeting Spirit (5-1) a 3-year old filly who ships in from Europe on a two race (albeit Group I) losing streak.
Get Funky finished second in the Grade III Moravich last time as the 9-5 favorite. He did close some ground up the rail, but never made contact with the 22-1 long-shot winner California Flag, who will be unfurled again for this one. California Flag has moved up the class ladder of late and has a world of speed. He'll definitely be winging it early.
Also figuring on the front end are long-shot Desert Code, who pressed the pace in second before fading late in the Moravich and the much more interesting Mr. Nightlinger. The William Bret Calhoun trained son of Indian Charlie has won five straight, including a pair of Grade III tests and has done so at three different race tracks. He has never been headed from gate to wire in those five tries and has run to five straight triple digit BRIS speed numbers. The only thing he still has to prove is if he can carry that speed farther than the 5 and 5 ½ furlongs he's traveled during that streak.
The trio of European shippers, which includes Fleeting Spirit, Only Answer and Diabolical have each faced stiff company overseas. For the most part they all show stalking and tracking tendencies. The filly may not have won either of her last two, but she was facing males in Group I races and did get beat only three lengths after lacking room in a 17 horse field last time after being beten ¾ of a length for third two back. Prior to that, she beat the lads from off the pace in the Group II Temple Stakes at Haydock.
Only Answer is a 4-year old filly who has raced exclusively vs the boys in France and won a Group III at Longchamp in her last. She has hit the board in 7 of her last 10 including 4 wins and 6 of the races have been in Group company. Diabolical had been on a five race downer when he regrouped to lose the Group II Diadem Stakes by a nose at Ascot in his last and trainer Saeed Bin Suroor wasted little time making arrangements off that performance. The son of Artax began hgis career in this country and last year won the Grade III Sprint Handicap at Pimlico on Preakness day and the Grade II Vanderbilt at Saratoga. When on his game he has the class to compete.
Heroes Reward, who has finished just behind True To Tradition in their last pair of battles figures along with that one to press from just off the pace. The former would appear to be a bit compromised by his inside post and the 6 ½ panels he's never traveled while the latter off his two straight victories, the most recent from just off the pace in the 6 furlong Grade II Neartic at Woodbine. He has competed well at a mile and a mile and a sixteenth on the turf in the past, so it is likely he'll be able to extend his speed.
Also figuring to keep the pace honest from close up are Salute The Count and Idiot Proof. The latter finished second in last year's BC Sprint over the sloppy Monmouth main oval, but he was no match for the likes of Cost Of Freedom and Street Boss in the Grade I Ancient Title over the Pro-Ride surface on 9/27 so rather than meet those two again in a return dirt sprint engagement, trainer Clifford Sise is hoping for a little rebirth in what could arguably be considered a softer field. As for Salute The Count, he could be right there at the finish. Although he doesn't often win, he always shows up as his 7-1-4-1 2008 mark would attest. He closed at 6 furlongs to miss by a head in the Grade III Jaipur at Belmont in mid-June and has been training brilliantly for trainer Richard Dutrow since winning the Quick Call at Sratoga in early September.
Storm Treasure, Rouse The Cat and One Union complete the field. Storm Treasure might love the 6 ½ furlongs. He was moving forward steadily in the 6 furlong Neartic last time and though he finished fifth was only a length and a half off the winning True To Tradition. He also posted a win in a mile stakes at Fair Grounds so could come flying late. Rouse The Cat is interesting because despite being sent off at double digit odds in his last three has managed to hit the board in each, including a nose loss to True To Tradition at 52-1 in the Neartic last time. He also attracts Edgar Prado. One Union wraps it up, and proves just how difficult this race is. He was third at 12-1 and just lost second late in the Moravich here last time and was third, 1 ¼ lengths behind Get Flunky four races back.
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
This should be a dandy. You've got turn-back high class distance speed, stretch out closers and a few horses that have shown the even-paced sustainable speed that seems to play well over the Pro-Ride surface. And you've even got a Lord Admiral shipping in from Europe to make the first dirt start of his career after earning almost $1 Million from 46 turf starts.
Let's take a quick look at each of these contenders from the rail out in what is a wide-open race if ever there was one.
Lewis Michael - Has won two of four at the distance and is 7-3-3-0 on synthetic. He draws a difficult post, but did rally smartly to win the Grade II Pat Obrien at 7 furlongs in his final prep.
Surf Cat - Stalked the pace well before tiring late in both the 10 furlong Grade I Pacific Classic and 9 furlong Grade I Goodwood, so the turn back in distance should be to his advantage. The only trouble is, he'll be meeting a number of those that finished in front of him in that pair, including the favored Well Armed, who got the jump on him and finished in front of him in each of those races.
Slew's Tizzy - Doug O'Neil found a soft spot to get his colt his first win in well over a year. But the victory came in wire-to-wire fashion over conditioned allowance foes through soft fractions. He doesn't appear to have the speed to keep up early and has never had much late kick. This is too rich for him.
Mast Track - Did a better job of contesting the pace and Well Armed in the Goodwood last time than he did in the Pacific Classic, but that meant he faded quicker in the final stages of the former. However, it could have been a useful prep because if he can find the middle ground and lay just off what figures to be a pretty good early pace, he may have enough left at the mile given his earlier stamina building efforts.
Two Step Salsa - The quick 3-year old colt tarveled east for the Grade II Pennsylvania Derby and as many west to east and synthetic to traditional dirt movements have done recently, this one also failed. But back in Southern California he has proven a valuable commodity. He'll definitely be an early factor. You just have to question whether or not this is the best spot in which to make his first start vs his elders.
Pyro - Yeah, that Pyro. He continues to work slowly, continues to disappoint with a too late rush at longer distances and now is asked to go shorter over a course that doesn't play to his running style. Wouldn't it be just the thing?
Albertus Maximus - Looks to be in the best form of his career since moving to the barn of Vladimir Cerin. He will have to rally on the turn-back after not getting there at 9 furlongs in the Goodwood, but was a competitive third that day and won a mile stakes at Del Mar prior to that. He definitely warrants interest.
Well Armed - Given his current form and running style it would appear that this race was written specifically for him. He has turned in three very quick speed drills since winning the Goodwood from a tracking position, which indicates that even with all his speed, he is also versatile enough to rate and is tenacious. Brings a lot to the game.
Slew's Tiznow - Was about to be a player on this year's Triple Crown trail when he got injured at the end of his juvenile season. Returned victorious in the restricted to age group El Cajon and has turned in two terrific works heading in. Tough spot to face elders for the first time, but this guy might be a comer.
Rebellion - The Graham Motion trained horse usually finds a way to get involved. He has raced at six different distances at five different race course over three different surfaces in his last seven races and the only bad effort was over the soft turf in last year's BC Mile Turf. He has rallied at 7 furlongs in the Pat Obrien and at 6 ½ on the turf in his last two. He could very well do the same for a piece in here.
My Pal Charlie - Another 3-year old that will be facing his elders for the first time, and it is germane to consider that the 2008 sophomore class is one of the weakest in many years. The in-and-out tactical speed horse was in during the Super Derby last time but hasn't put together back-to-back on the board finishes since breaking his maiden and winning an entry level allowance at Fair Grounds this past January and February.
Lord Admiral - The European grass vet has finally earned a vacation to the states. The 7-year old has only won 6 times from 46 career starts but has 15 seconds and 9 thirds so 67% on-the-board is nothing to dismiss out of hand. What does make it interesting is that it is the first time he will ever run on dirt.
Breeders' Cup Mile - Turf
There are nine sharp older males, a veteran mare and the 3-year old filly is the 3-1 ML favorite. Once again intrigue attaches to the BC Mile and once again the race is loaded with the type of tactical and high cruising speed runners that make this one of the toughest races to handicap and most rewarding to win.
The European filly Goldikova has earned her reputation. She has won her last three for trainer Freddie Head, including a pair of Group I tests at the mile distance. What truly points to her potential greatness is that she stepped in vs males (and older males at that) in the prestigious Group I Prix De Moulin Des Longchamp on 9/7 and held them all off, including Henrythenavigator who is one of the main contenders in Saturday's Classic.
Let's take a look at who brings what to the challenge table. From the rail out they are...
Shakis - The traditional pattern for winning this race says you want to be within five lengths of the winner at the half mile pole and this guy figures off his recent form to be much deeper in the pack than that...especially from the rail. But he did close to finish second at the distance in the prestigious Grade I Shadwell Mile at Keeneland in his last, so if not the top spot has to be considered a factor for a supporting role.
Kip Deville threw in a clunker in the late stages when he looked home free in the Grade I Woodbine Mile, the same race he used as a final prep before winning last year's BC Mile. He has easily won his prior two 2008 races and it is difficult to see one bad step meaning he is on the down side. Sharp Drills on the Aqueduct turf since the Canadian failure say he's still a player.
Precious Kitten - The 5-year old mare proved in the Grade I First lady last time that she'll be very comfortable utilizing her tactical speed at a mile. The Bob Frankel trainee has ducked no one over the last two years and this move off the First lady prep could have much better results than last year's horror show in the F&M Turf following a similar second previously.
Daytona - Has faded behind Whatsthescript in his last two, and in the last both turned back from 9 to 8 furlongs. He has won two of three at a mile, but as well as he has run in the past, it is also worth noting that this race is not won on the front end, so he will likely be a part of, and victim of, the pace.
Awesome Gem - You have to go back ten races to June of last year for this guy's last win. He is competitive and does have a good late kick, but this could be a tough spot given that he has been trying to close in longer dirt races. He did finish second both time he tried a mile on grass and is 4-0-3-0 in his career on turf, but he'd need a lot of things to go right to do more than rab the tail end of a trifecta or superfecta.
U. S. Ranger - Difficult to get a handle on. The European shipper hasn't won a race in 7 starts in 2008 and has only won 2 of 12 over the last two years. But he has won 3 of 4 career wise at the diatance and has only had one bad showing from his last five...all in Group I affairs. His biggest problem couild be that for th most part he has attempted to rally from far back...and that usually doesn't work in this race.
Bold Chieftain - The 5-year old horse has a 9-5-3-0 career turf mark, has won twice and placed twice from four starts at a mile and two back was beaten less than a length when he placed behind Whatsthescript in the Grade II Del Mar Mile Handicap. He has the perfect stalking style for the race and seldom runs a bad one. Definitely a value if he goes off near his 15-1 ML price.
War Monger - The 4-year old War Chant colt could be rounding into his best form for traoiner Bill Mott at just the right time. He did finish third in the Grade I Shadwell last time after running close up throughout. But he often finds an occasion to fade rather than finish so would probably have to run the race of his career to grab one of the top three spots.
Thorn Song - Three wins in his last five, three wins from four tries at the diatsnce and a strong win in the Shadwell last time add to her credibility. The Dale Romans trained horse will definitely be a factor if he can manage to mete out his prodigious speed rather than fight for the front end too early. Merits deep consideration.
Whatsthescript - There is very little if anything to dislike with this guy. Since moving to the John Sadler barn he has been a monster. Most impressive was his turn-back from a rally for a half length beaten second in the 9 furlong Grade I Eddie Read to win the Grade II Del Mar Mile Handicap last time. What is even more impressive is that he has the kind of tracking play early to get into position and high turn of foot late. In his last three races he has been sitting at second call exactly where you'd want him to sit at second call for this. One of the main players.
IT STARTS WITH A MARATHON AND ENDS WITH A CLASSIC.
NINE COMPETITIVE BREEDERS' CUP RACES FILL SATURDAY WITH OPPORTUNITY!!
Fourteen races spread over two days with 173 horses entered. If more is better, the new generation of administrators and marketers for the Breeders' Cup has certainly fulfilled that mission. The five Breeders' Cup races that will be run on Friday have drawn 59 runners (including a pair of also eligible runners for the Juvenile Filly Turf) while Saturday's nine Championship races saw a total of 114 entered (including an also eligible for the Juvenile Turf.)
If you haven't started handicapping these races as of yet you might run out of time. . There are so many variables to consider it will make an individual player's head spin.
IT'S EVEN TOO LATE TO CRAM...HERE ARE SOME "CLIFF NOTES."
Over the next few days you are going to read, hear and accidentally stumble upon a lot of weird trend and pattern oriented supposition regarding these Breeders' Cup races. Most of it will come from talking heads that pay attention to horse racing only during the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders' Cup.
You know the guys and gals being referenced. The local cable news sports personalities that rush back to the studios after covering the latest high school football games, or the Network guys that spend hours on end in the locker room with Terrell Owens or Brett Favre or in the Pits with Kyle Bush but couldn't find the paddock or finish line at a race track with a GPS. Stop listening...even if you are an amateur or a veteran that finds these Breeders' Cup races particularly difficult, you know more than those guys.
The Breeders' Cup Marathon
The 9 horses entered in the inaugural running of the Breeders' Cup Marathon, a 1 ½ mile run over the Pro-Ride surface have earned just a few bucks shy of $4 Million. But you can be forgiven if you aren't as familiar with most of them as you are with the entrants in most of the other Breeders' Cup races because only five have ever won any level Graded or Group Stakes. They are hard knockers that can run all day and have either been just good enough to fail vs better, improving enough to warrant a try or in the case of two European shippers, not good enough to fit in the Mile, Turf or Classic, but perhaps good enough to win this.
The two European shippers are Sixties Icon, who based, apparently on his three straight Group III victories on the turf in England, has been installed as the 2-1 ML favorite. He also has the highest winning percentage, having been successful in 8 of 16 tries and is the highest money earner with $995,007. It will be his first dirt try, but overall, grass to synthetic dirt transitions have been quite successful. Frankie Dettori, who has a number of live mounts during this year's Championships, will take the irons from Jeremy Noseda.
On the other end of the invading spectrum is 20-2 ML Muhannak. The 4-year old Chester House gelding has raced on both Polytrack and grass overseas, but has faced much lesser than his fellow traveler. He does have a win at the distance, however, and has won 4 of his last 6 dating back to October of 2007.
Based on the company he's kept, Zappa would have to be considered a major player given his drop down from a pair of not disgraceful attempts. The 6-year old John Sadler trainee has closed with interest vs the likes of Well Armed, Go Between, Mast Track, Tiago and Albertus Maximus, each of whom will be racing for black type and bigger money during the afternoon. His performances in the Grade I Goodwood and Grade I Pacific Classic should put him in good stead here.
Church Service is another that has kept his nose in the game in Graded company, having contested his last 5 vs level II and level III opponents. The Mike Mitchell trainee has posted a win and a pair of seconds in those tries, though only one has been off the turf. In that one race, however, he was beaten just a nose at the mile and a half distance.
Another recent winner at the distance is Delightful Kiss, who has won two straight Grade III events and might finally be ready at the end of his 4-year old campaign to begin showing the promise he hinted at with wins in the Grade II Ohio Derby and the Iowa Derby last year.
Big Booster and Cedar Mountain also have the credentials to contend for a piece. The former will be making his 47th career start (10-2-9) and enters following a rallying third behind Zappa in the mile and a half Cougar II Handicap at Del Mar. Cedar Mountain is the most lightly raced with only 10 career starts and does return to the "dirt" after 7 straight on grass. He did run well in his two European Polytrack races. He'll make his first start since finishing second in the 12 furlong Grade II Sunset Handicap at Hollywood in mid-July.
Add Heat and Booyah complete the field. Both appear to be stepping up in class. The former has only one win in his last twenty starts vs Cal-breds and allowance runners while Booyah comes off a win in a Fairplex Handicap and has never been the distance. The latter could contribute to the pace, but appears hard pressed to extend his speed.
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
The world of turf sprinting doesn't have a large following or a number of high profile graded races, so it isn't so easy to line competitors up based on class experience. That fact couldn't be better amplified than by the two ML favorites being Get Funky (9-2) a 5-year old horse that didn't even win a Grade III race in his final prep and Fleeting Spirit (5-1) a 3-year old filly who ships in from Europe on a two race (albeit Group I) losing streak.
Get Funky finished second in the Grade III Moravich last time as the 9-5 favorite. He did close some ground up the rail, but never made contact with the 22-1 long-shot winner California Flag, who will be unfurled again for this one. California Flag has moved up the class ladder of late and has a world of speed. He'll definitely be winging it early.
Also figuring on the front end are long-shot Desert Code, who pressed the pace in second before fading late in the Moravich and the much more interesting Mr. Nightlinger. The William Bret Calhoun trained son of Indian Charlie has won five straight, including a pair of Grade III tests and has done so at three different race tracks. He has never been headed from gate to wire in those five tries and has run to five straight triple digit BRIS speed numbers. The only thing he still has to prove is if he can carry that speed farther than the 5 and 5 ½ furlongs he's traveled during that streak.
The trio of European shippers, which includes Fleeting Spirit, Only Answer and Diabolical have each faced stiff company overseas. For the most part they all show stalking and tracking tendencies. The filly may not have won either of her last two, but she was facing males in Group I races and did get beat only three lengths after lacking room in a 17 horse field last time after being beten ¾ of a length for third two back. Prior to that, she beat the lads from off the pace in the Group II Temple Stakes at Haydock.
Only Answer is a 4-year old filly who has raced exclusively vs the boys in France and won a Group III at Longchamp in her last. She has hit the board in 7 of her last 10 including 4 wins and 6 of the races have been in Group company. Diabolical had been on a five race downer when he regrouped to lose the Group II Diadem Stakes by a nose at Ascot in his last and trainer Saeed Bin Suroor wasted little time making arrangements off that performance. The son of Artax began hgis career in this country and last year won the Grade III Sprint Handicap at Pimlico on Preakness day and the Grade II Vanderbilt at Saratoga. When on his game he has the class to compete.
Heroes Reward, who has finished just behind True To Tradition in their last pair of battles figures along with that one to press from just off the pace. The former would appear to be a bit compromised by his inside post and the 6 ½ panels he's never traveled while the latter off his two straight victories, the most recent from just off the pace in the 6 furlong Grade II Neartic at Woodbine. He has competed well at a mile and a mile and a sixteenth on the turf in the past, so it is likely he'll be able to extend his speed.
Also figuring to keep the pace honest from close up are Salute The Count and Idiot Proof. The latter finished second in last year's BC Sprint over the sloppy Monmouth main oval, but he was no match for the likes of Cost Of Freedom and Street Boss in the Grade I Ancient Title over the Pro-Ride surface on 9/27 so rather than meet those two again in a return dirt sprint engagement, trainer Clifford Sise is hoping for a little rebirth in what could arguably be considered a softer field. As for Salute The Count, he could be right there at the finish. Although he doesn't often win, he always shows up as his 7-1-4-1 2008 mark would attest. He closed at 6 furlongs to miss by a head in the Grade III Jaipur at Belmont in mid-June and has been training brilliantly for trainer Richard Dutrow since winning the Quick Call at Sratoga in early September.
Storm Treasure, Rouse The Cat and One Union complete the field. Storm Treasure might love the 6 ½ furlongs. He was moving forward steadily in the 6 furlong Neartic last time and though he finished fifth was only a length and a half off the winning True To Tradition. He also posted a win in a mile stakes at Fair Grounds so could come flying late. Rouse The Cat is interesting because despite being sent off at double digit odds in his last three has managed to hit the board in each, including a nose loss to True To Tradition at 52-1 in the Neartic last time. He also attracts Edgar Prado. One Union wraps it up, and proves just how difficult this race is. He was third at 12-1 and just lost second late in the Moravich here last time and was third, 1 ¼ lengths behind Get Flunky four races back.
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
This should be a dandy. You've got turn-back high class distance speed, stretch out closers and a few horses that have shown the even-paced sustainable speed that seems to play well over the Pro-Ride surface. And you've even got a Lord Admiral shipping in from Europe to make the first dirt start of his career after earning almost $1 Million from 46 turf starts.
Let's take a quick look at each of these contenders from the rail out in what is a wide-open race if ever there was one.
Lewis Michael - Has won two of four at the distance and is 7-3-3-0 on synthetic. He draws a difficult post, but did rally smartly to win the Grade II Pat Obrien at 7 furlongs in his final prep.
Surf Cat - Stalked the pace well before tiring late in both the 10 furlong Grade I Pacific Classic and 9 furlong Grade I Goodwood, so the turn back in distance should be to his advantage. The only trouble is, he'll be meeting a number of those that finished in front of him in that pair, including the favored Well Armed, who got the jump on him and finished in front of him in each of those races.
Slew's Tizzy - Doug O'Neil found a soft spot to get his colt his first win in well over a year. But the victory came in wire-to-wire fashion over conditioned allowance foes through soft fractions. He doesn't appear to have the speed to keep up early and has never had much late kick. This is too rich for him.
Mast Track - Did a better job of contesting the pace and Well Armed in the Goodwood last time than he did in the Pacific Classic, but that meant he faded quicker in the final stages of the former. However, it could have been a useful prep because if he can find the middle ground and lay just off what figures to be a pretty good early pace, he may have enough left at the mile given his earlier stamina building efforts.
Two Step Salsa - The quick 3-year old colt tarveled east for the Grade II Pennsylvania Derby and as many west to east and synthetic to traditional dirt movements have done recently, this one also failed. But back in Southern California he has proven a valuable commodity. He'll definitely be an early factor. You just have to question whether or not this is the best spot in which to make his first start vs his elders.
Pyro - Yeah, that Pyro. He continues to work slowly, continues to disappoint with a too late rush at longer distances and now is asked to go shorter over a course that doesn't play to his running style. Wouldn't it be just the thing?
Albertus Maximus - Looks to be in the best form of his career since moving to the barn of Vladimir Cerin. He will have to rally on the turn-back after not getting there at 9 furlongs in the Goodwood, but was a competitive third that day and won a mile stakes at Del Mar prior to that. He definitely warrants interest.
Well Armed - Given his current form and running style it would appear that this race was written specifically for him. He has turned in three very quick speed drills since winning the Goodwood from a tracking position, which indicates that even with all his speed, he is also versatile enough to rate and is tenacious. Brings a lot to the game.
Slew's Tiznow - Was about to be a player on this year's Triple Crown trail when he got injured at the end of his juvenile season. Returned victorious in the restricted to age group El Cajon and has turned in two terrific works heading in. Tough spot to face elders for the first time, but this guy might be a comer.
Rebellion - The Graham Motion trained horse usually finds a way to get involved. He has raced at six different distances at five different race course over three different surfaces in his last seven races and the only bad effort was over the soft turf in last year's BC Mile Turf. He has rallied at 7 furlongs in the Pat Obrien and at 6 ½ on the turf in his last two. He could very well do the same for a piece in here.
My Pal Charlie - Another 3-year old that will be facing his elders for the first time, and it is germane to consider that the 2008 sophomore class is one of the weakest in many years. The in-and-out tactical speed horse was in during the Super Derby last time but hasn't put together back-to-back on the board finishes since breaking his maiden and winning an entry level allowance at Fair Grounds this past January and February.
Lord Admiral - The European grass vet has finally earned a vacation to the states. The 7-year old has only won 6 times from 46 career starts but has 15 seconds and 9 thirds so 67% on-the-board is nothing to dismiss out of hand. What does make it interesting is that it is the first time he will ever run on dirt.
Breeders' Cup Mile - Turf
There are nine sharp older males, a veteran mare and the 3-year old filly is the 3-1 ML favorite. Once again intrigue attaches to the BC Mile and once again the race is loaded with the type of tactical and high cruising speed runners that make this one of the toughest races to handicap and most rewarding to win.
The European filly Goldikova has earned her reputation. She has won her last three for trainer Freddie Head, including a pair of Group I tests at the mile distance. What truly points to her potential greatness is that she stepped in vs males (and older males at that) in the prestigious Group I Prix De Moulin Des Longchamp on 9/7 and held them all off, including Henrythenavigator who is one of the main contenders in Saturday's Classic.
Let's take a look at who brings what to the challenge table. From the rail out they are...
Shakis - The traditional pattern for winning this race says you want to be within five lengths of the winner at the half mile pole and this guy figures off his recent form to be much deeper in the pack than that...especially from the rail. But he did close to finish second at the distance in the prestigious Grade I Shadwell Mile at Keeneland in his last, so if not the top spot has to be considered a factor for a supporting role.
Kip Deville threw in a clunker in the late stages when he looked home free in the Grade I Woodbine Mile, the same race he used as a final prep before winning last year's BC Mile. He has easily won his prior two 2008 races and it is difficult to see one bad step meaning he is on the down side. Sharp Drills on the Aqueduct turf since the Canadian failure say he's still a player.
Precious Kitten - The 5-year old mare proved in the Grade I First lady last time that she'll be very comfortable utilizing her tactical speed at a mile. The Bob Frankel trainee has ducked no one over the last two years and this move off the First lady prep could have much better results than last year's horror show in the F&M Turf following a similar second previously.
Daytona - Has faded behind Whatsthescript in his last two, and in the last both turned back from 9 to 8 furlongs. He has won two of three at a mile, but as well as he has run in the past, it is also worth noting that this race is not won on the front end, so he will likely be a part of, and victim of, the pace.
Awesome Gem - You have to go back ten races to June of last year for this guy's last win. He is competitive and does have a good late kick, but this could be a tough spot given that he has been trying to close in longer dirt races. He did finish second both time he tried a mile on grass and is 4-0-3-0 in his career on turf, but he'd need a lot of things to go right to do more than rab the tail end of a trifecta or superfecta.
U. S. Ranger - Difficult to get a handle on. The European shipper hasn't won a race in 7 starts in 2008 and has only won 2 of 12 over the last two years. But he has won 3 of 4 career wise at the diatance and has only had one bad showing from his last five...all in Group I affairs. His biggest problem couild be that for th most part he has attempted to rally from far back...and that usually doesn't work in this race.
Bold Chieftain - The 5-year old horse has a 9-5-3-0 career turf mark, has won twice and placed twice from four starts at a mile and two back was beaten less than a length when he placed behind Whatsthescript in the Grade II Del Mar Mile Handicap. He has the perfect stalking style for the race and seldom runs a bad one. Definitely a value if he goes off near his 15-1 ML price.
War Monger - The 4-year old War Chant colt could be rounding into his best form for traoiner Bill Mott at just the right time. He did finish third in the Grade I Shadwell last time after running close up throughout. But he often finds an occasion to fade rather than finish so would probably have to run the race of his career to grab one of the top three spots.
Thorn Song - Three wins in his last five, three wins from four tries at the diatsnce and a strong win in the Shadwell last time add to her credibility. The Dale Romans trained horse will definitely be a factor if he can manage to mete out his prodigious speed rather than fight for the front end too early. Merits deep consideration.
Whatsthescript - There is very little if anything to dislike with this guy. Since moving to the John Sadler barn he has been a monster. Most impressive was his turn-back from a rally for a half length beaten second in the 9 furlong Grade I Eddie Read to win the Grade II Del Mar Mile Handicap last time. What is even more impressive is that he has the kind of tracking play early to get into position and high turn of foot late. In his last three races he has been sitting at second call exactly where you'd want him to sit at second call for this. One of the main players.