More Breeder's Cup Analysis
Trotman
Senior Member
Breeders' Cup Juvenile
You've got a colt that has won four in a row, including three stakes races, the last a Grade III and he's 30-1 on the morning line, an undefeated last out dominant Grade III winner at 20-1 and a youngster that finished second in a Grade I last time despite encountering traffic problems that is also 20-1.
Welcome to the world of the Juveniles and the excruciating challenge of matching up their yet developed form.
Munnings - Won his debut handily and then rallied well to get third and second respectively in the Gradev I Hopeful at Saratoga and Grade I Champagne at Belmont. He was beaten by Vineyard Haven on each of those occasions and won't have to face that one, but will be racing around two turns and on synthetic dirt for the first time. If he handles those two sidebars he should be a contender.
Gallant Son - One of two winners of four straight the son of Malabar Gold travels south after spending his entire five race career at Emerald Downs. Those aren't the kind of shipping lanes that lead to a winning BC port, but this guy has a great rating style and has gotten better the longer his races.
Terrain - Might be the best 20-1 shot on the entire Breeders' Cup card. The son of Sky Mesa won his debut, went on to capture the 100K Mountaineer Juvenile and then was awarded first place in the Arlington Washington Futurity after being taken up by a rival in the stretch. Last time he was in traffic in the Grade I Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland and continued on for the place behind Square Eddie who he'll face again on Saturday.
Square Eddie - Wasted little time getting acclimated to the States as he captured the aforementioned Breeders' Futurity after shipping from Great Britain and going further than 6 furlongs for the first time. The son of Smart Strike is bred to go long, has terrific tactical speed and shows no sign that he won't be able to handle synthetic dirt as he did so at Keeneland.
Azul Leon - Didn't quite adjust to two turns in the Grade I Norfolk as well as his sprint races in the Grade III Hollywood Juvenile and Grade II Best Pal indicated he might. Nonetheless, trainer Doug O'Neill hasn't lost confidence and sends him back against the same following a couple of good drills. Lion Heart has been a good first crop sire and his son should handle the distance. May deserve another chance.
Silent Valor - His first try beyond 6 furlongs and over the Pro-Ride surface wasn't all that bad as he made a move to second in deep stretch in the Norfolk before weakening in the final strides. Another son of Lion Heart, the Todd Pletcher trainee need only build a little bit off that race to get a piece in this one, but he'll still have to get past Street Hero and Midshipman, who beat him that day and return for this.
Street Hero - Finally ran to his promise as he won the Grade I Norfolk and broke his maiden at the same time in career start number five. He had previously finished third in the Grade I Del Mar Futurity as well, so he was really more than a maiden when he won the race and turned the tables on Midshipman, who had beaten him in his previous pair. Stays in contact with the field and runs on late. No reason to think he won't remain consistent.
Mine That Bird - The Woodbine shipper has won four straight from a good tracking position each time and topped his streak by taking the Grade III Grey Stakes last time. Now in the barn of Richard Mandella the son of Belmont Stakes upset winner Birdstone turned in a terrific work over the surface on Monday and may repeat the surprise from his father.
Pioneered The Nile - The son of late developing sire Empire Maker made a run at the leaders and finished third in the Norfolk last time in his third career and first synthetic dirt start. The Bill Mott trainee has made all three runs at 8 ½ furlongs and has always kicked in late. If enough falter he could be along for a piece. He adds to a deep field that just keeps getting larger.
Midshipman - Another solid tracker that can only get better. In his third start and first two turn engagement in the Norfolk he rallied four wide into the lane and got the place just ¾ of a length off Street Hero. Bob Baffert has the son of Unbridled's Song in perfect form and his work on 10/19 only confirms that. Should be a major player.
Bushranger - If Square Eddie could emigrate with 2 wins in 4 starts in Europe and a little over 200K in earnings and win the Breeders' Futurity what should this son of Danetime (Danehill) do with 4 wins from 6 starts, the last two vs Group I rivals, as well as 659,124 in earnings. Aren't his accomplishments absolutely flattered? Tracking style on the Irish French and English grass should transfer well.
West Side Bernie - Two for two in his career after following up his MSW debut win at a mile seventy at Monmouth with an easy stalking and pop win in the Grade III Kentucky Cup Juvenile at 8 ½ furlongs over the Turfway Polytrack in his last. Sire Bernstein has been very productive this season and his two turn runners have had little trouble. He's turned in two sharp drills over the Pro-Ride surface and just adds to the amazing depth of this field.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
At least unlike the dirt races, only one of the contenders in this twelve horse field will be going to the turf for the first time. Still, that doesn't make the race any easier as 10 of the 12 in the main body of the race are stakes winners or stakes placed and three of those are last out winners shipping from Europe.
Ninth Client - Three straight at 8 ½ furlongs on the grass has built his stamina and he has shown good early speed. But he's also been handled twice by Bittel Road and twice by Skipadate so will have to find a little extra something in the lane after fading off the lead in his last two.
City Style - Broke his maiden at 25K in his first career start and after finishing second in an entry allowance dirt sprint conquered rivals going to the turf and two turns for the first time in a $150K stakes at Louisiana Downs. The son of City Zip split foes impressively that day and a repeat could work. But this is a lot deeper class-wise, and position will mean much so he'll need to be much closer early on.
Westphalia - One of the three European shippers on a weekend that could prove to be a boon for the immigrants. The son of Danehill has one bad effort over a soft surface from six career starts and earned a Grade II victory before shipping across. Based on his running style, however, he's going to have to come from pretty far back. Watching Heart Shaped fail by a nose of doing that in the Filly version of this, the task may not be so daunting.
Donativum - Another European invader, the English bred John Gosden trainee bumped his earnings to just under $1 Million when he captured the Tattersalls Timeform Million in his last. He has moved from 5 to 6 to 7 furlongs seamlessly and has a good tracking style. He is cycling into the third off his layoff and the trainer excels with that move. Must be considered.
Relatively Ready - Ran third in the Grade III Pilgrim in his most recent after breaking his maiden on the grass in his prior. The number on the David Donk trainee may appear soft (83 BRIS) for the stakes but east coast turf numbers tend to register a bit lower than west coast numbers due to more give in the surface. Another step forward and tye son of effective sire More Than Ready could register a surprise.
Vaquero - The son of Orientate stopped late after pressing the pace throughout the 8 ½ furlongs of the Grade III Bourbon last time. He finished behind Bittel Road and Ninth Client that day and although the mile distance of this may suit him better he also figures to be facing a much quicker pace. Takes them as far as he goes.
Coronet Of A Baron - Appears to have plenty of tactical speed, looks as though he'll like the mile distance and has been right there at the finish in all three of his career starts. He also has some solid mile grass breeding for his first ever turf start and has worked well leading up. You might want to consider him in a backup role, however, as trainer Harty is on an 0 for 41 first on the grass run.
Paddy The Pro - Another European shipper and another that has never done more than sprint. The son of Exceed and Excel is bred to handle grass and distance and did show a good tracking style overseas. But it will be tough to stretch out vs some of the longer-winded rivals he'll face and he is going back to the grass after a pair of Polytrack sprints. Needs much to break right.
Orthodox - The son of Pulpit finally broke his maiden in start number four last time so class questions are likely a consideration. But it is noteworthy that it was his first turf start and came right here over this course. He is bred to be in this circumstance and has turned in two strong drills since the win so it wouldn't be a complete surprise should he move forward yet again.
Skipadate - After getting beat a head in the Withanticipation Stakes at Belmont he went north and was beaten a head in the Grade III Summer Stakes at Woodbine. The son of Skip Away has improved with each race, and though he dropped that close decision late to Great Adventure, who he'll be facing again in here, has every right to move forward once more.
Bittel Road - Came with a late rush from Louisville to win the Grade III Bourbon at Keeneland in his last after winning the Withanticipation from much closer order in his previous race. The son of Stormy Atlantic has emerged quickly and should be a factor on Saturday, especially if John Velazquez can get him involved a bit earlier. Has done nothing wrong in his 3 for 3 career start.
Great Adventure - A perfect two for two with a MSW and Grade III Summer Stakes win on his resume. The Mark Frostad trained son of Grand Slam simply deepens a race already stocked with experienced middle-distance and well bred turf youngsters. He does have to overcome a tough post, but European shipper Heart Shaped missed by a nose of doing it in the female version of this race on Friday so it isn't out of the realm of possibility, especially for a colt that has rated as kindly as this guy has.
Breeders' Cup Sprint - Short And Sweet
It could be argued that the turf sprint, filly and mare sprint and even the dirt mile...all new inclusions within the last two years...have eaten into the depth of this field, While that is a very real possibility, the race doesn't seem to be suffering too much given the nine runners that will go to the gate on Saturday.
Cost Of Freedom - John Sadler must have a pretty good eye. He claimed this gelding three back for 50K, got an entry allowance win first off the halter and won the Grade I Ancient Title with him last time. Now he's in the BC Sprint with every reason to keep it going. He wore down the pace-setters from a pressing position in the AT and held off the rush of both Street Boss and In Summation, both of whom he'll face again in here. He'd probably be best pressing Fabulous Strike and Fatal Bullet, but may need to call on his speed to clear early from the rail. Either way his current form says he merits the belief he can do it either way.
Street Boss - He had a nifty five race win streak snapped by the rail horse last time as he settled for the place from well off the pace. Trouble is, the same scenario could develop again today. The son of Street Cry is certainly coming to get them all, but he'll need plenty of contention up front and the failure of more than one to get the job done. He's probably almost a lock to hit the board...getting to the top spot will take a huge effort.
Fabulous Strike - Has won 6 of his last 8 but dropped a tough one when he got stuck down on the rail in the sloppy Grade I Vosburgh last time and settled for a head-beaten place. On the down side he has never raced on Pro-Ride or any other synthetic surface. On the upside, he's been working brilliantly over both the Presque Isle Tapeta and over this surface in a five furlong drill this past Sunday. Even with some decent speed signed on they have him to catch to beat...and they might not.
Midnight Lute - Is something amiss with the defending champ. It would appear so as he has only managed one race so far in 2008 and that turned out to be a horror show in the Grade II Pat Obrien at Del Mar. Oddly, he worked brilliantly prior to that race and has worked brilliantly since for trainer Bob Baffert so if the comeback failure was due to the bad start and getting steadied in tight shortly thereafter and not to physical problems, look out.
First Defence - In his last seven races the versatile for surface and distance 4-year old has run a super race and a horrible race one after the other. Fortunately for trainer Bob Frankel his last effort was a 24 lengths beaten stinker in the slop in the Vosburgh so if pattern holds he'll bounce back big time. Three back he crushed the Grade I Forego field on a fast dirt track and five races back he won the Grade III Jaipur on a yielding turf course. He turned in a bullet best of seventy five furlongs in :57 4/5 over the Pro-Ride surface on Sunday, so he may be a go.
Black Seventeen - The upset winner of the Grade I Vosburgh enters at the top of his game. The question is, whether or not the Vosburgh win was sloppy surface induced or the colt is at the top of his game. Prior to the victory he had dropped three straight vs lesser on fast tracks and before that grabbed a win at Calder in the Grade II Carryback over an off dirt track. But he does have solid pressing speed and did win two straight at Hollywood last May so may benefit from the move back to synthetic. Tough call, but he has the ability.
In Summation - His best form appears behind him right now as four straight losses following five wins in six races would attest. But he has been around things against some pretty good competition lately so there is always the specter of a return to his best...especially coming from the barn of Christophe Clement, who doesn't run them unless they are fit. Another that belongs on his best.
Sing Baby Sing - Hailing from Lone Star, Zia Park, Remington Park and Prairie Meadows the son of Unbridled's Song is likely to get overlooked. But any horse that could hold such consistent form as to finish first or second I eight of ten races at five different race tracks vs stakes foes of any level has to be given more than a passing glance. He's likely to be every part of his 30-1 morning line. But so was Sealy Hill when she came within a neck of winning yesterday's BC Filly & Mare Turf.
Fatal Bullet - The son of Red Bullet definitely belongs with these as he proved in his last three daylight wins over three separate synthetic turf courses, culminating in the Grade III Kentucky Cup Sprint at Turfway Park in his last. He is a 3-year old and he will only be facing older for the second time in his career, but he has won 7 of 10 and his speed is genuine.
You've got a colt that has won four in a row, including three stakes races, the last a Grade III and he's 30-1 on the morning line, an undefeated last out dominant Grade III winner at 20-1 and a youngster that finished second in a Grade I last time despite encountering traffic problems that is also 20-1.
Welcome to the world of the Juveniles and the excruciating challenge of matching up their yet developed form.
Munnings - Won his debut handily and then rallied well to get third and second respectively in the Gradev I Hopeful at Saratoga and Grade I Champagne at Belmont. He was beaten by Vineyard Haven on each of those occasions and won't have to face that one, but will be racing around two turns and on synthetic dirt for the first time. If he handles those two sidebars he should be a contender.
Gallant Son - One of two winners of four straight the son of Malabar Gold travels south after spending his entire five race career at Emerald Downs. Those aren't the kind of shipping lanes that lead to a winning BC port, but this guy has a great rating style and has gotten better the longer his races.
Terrain - Might be the best 20-1 shot on the entire Breeders' Cup card. The son of Sky Mesa won his debut, went on to capture the 100K Mountaineer Juvenile and then was awarded first place in the Arlington Washington Futurity after being taken up by a rival in the stretch. Last time he was in traffic in the Grade I Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland and continued on for the place behind Square Eddie who he'll face again on Saturday.
Square Eddie - Wasted little time getting acclimated to the States as he captured the aforementioned Breeders' Futurity after shipping from Great Britain and going further than 6 furlongs for the first time. The son of Smart Strike is bred to go long, has terrific tactical speed and shows no sign that he won't be able to handle synthetic dirt as he did so at Keeneland.
Azul Leon - Didn't quite adjust to two turns in the Grade I Norfolk as well as his sprint races in the Grade III Hollywood Juvenile and Grade II Best Pal indicated he might. Nonetheless, trainer Doug O'Neill hasn't lost confidence and sends him back against the same following a couple of good drills. Lion Heart has been a good first crop sire and his son should handle the distance. May deserve another chance.
Silent Valor - His first try beyond 6 furlongs and over the Pro-Ride surface wasn't all that bad as he made a move to second in deep stretch in the Norfolk before weakening in the final strides. Another son of Lion Heart, the Todd Pletcher trainee need only build a little bit off that race to get a piece in this one, but he'll still have to get past Street Hero and Midshipman, who beat him that day and return for this.
Street Hero - Finally ran to his promise as he won the Grade I Norfolk and broke his maiden at the same time in career start number five. He had previously finished third in the Grade I Del Mar Futurity as well, so he was really more than a maiden when he won the race and turned the tables on Midshipman, who had beaten him in his previous pair. Stays in contact with the field and runs on late. No reason to think he won't remain consistent.
Mine That Bird - The Woodbine shipper has won four straight from a good tracking position each time and topped his streak by taking the Grade III Grey Stakes last time. Now in the barn of Richard Mandella the son of Belmont Stakes upset winner Birdstone turned in a terrific work over the surface on Monday and may repeat the surprise from his father.
Pioneered The Nile - The son of late developing sire Empire Maker made a run at the leaders and finished third in the Norfolk last time in his third career and first synthetic dirt start. The Bill Mott trainee has made all three runs at 8 ½ furlongs and has always kicked in late. If enough falter he could be along for a piece. He adds to a deep field that just keeps getting larger.
Midshipman - Another solid tracker that can only get better. In his third start and first two turn engagement in the Norfolk he rallied four wide into the lane and got the place just ¾ of a length off Street Hero. Bob Baffert has the son of Unbridled's Song in perfect form and his work on 10/19 only confirms that. Should be a major player.
Bushranger - If Square Eddie could emigrate with 2 wins in 4 starts in Europe and a little over 200K in earnings and win the Breeders' Futurity what should this son of Danetime (Danehill) do with 4 wins from 6 starts, the last two vs Group I rivals, as well as 659,124 in earnings. Aren't his accomplishments absolutely flattered? Tracking style on the Irish French and English grass should transfer well.
West Side Bernie - Two for two in his career after following up his MSW debut win at a mile seventy at Monmouth with an easy stalking and pop win in the Grade III Kentucky Cup Juvenile at 8 ½ furlongs over the Turfway Polytrack in his last. Sire Bernstein has been very productive this season and his two turn runners have had little trouble. He's turned in two sharp drills over the Pro-Ride surface and just adds to the amazing depth of this field.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
At least unlike the dirt races, only one of the contenders in this twelve horse field will be going to the turf for the first time. Still, that doesn't make the race any easier as 10 of the 12 in the main body of the race are stakes winners or stakes placed and three of those are last out winners shipping from Europe.
Ninth Client - Three straight at 8 ½ furlongs on the grass has built his stamina and he has shown good early speed. But he's also been handled twice by Bittel Road and twice by Skipadate so will have to find a little extra something in the lane after fading off the lead in his last two.
City Style - Broke his maiden at 25K in his first career start and after finishing second in an entry allowance dirt sprint conquered rivals going to the turf and two turns for the first time in a $150K stakes at Louisiana Downs. The son of City Zip split foes impressively that day and a repeat could work. But this is a lot deeper class-wise, and position will mean much so he'll need to be much closer early on.
Westphalia - One of the three European shippers on a weekend that could prove to be a boon for the immigrants. The son of Danehill has one bad effort over a soft surface from six career starts and earned a Grade II victory before shipping across. Based on his running style, however, he's going to have to come from pretty far back. Watching Heart Shaped fail by a nose of doing that in the Filly version of this, the task may not be so daunting.
Donativum - Another European invader, the English bred John Gosden trainee bumped his earnings to just under $1 Million when he captured the Tattersalls Timeform Million in his last. He has moved from 5 to 6 to 7 furlongs seamlessly and has a good tracking style. He is cycling into the third off his layoff and the trainer excels with that move. Must be considered.
Relatively Ready - Ran third in the Grade III Pilgrim in his most recent after breaking his maiden on the grass in his prior. The number on the David Donk trainee may appear soft (83 BRIS) for the stakes but east coast turf numbers tend to register a bit lower than west coast numbers due to more give in the surface. Another step forward and tye son of effective sire More Than Ready could register a surprise.
Vaquero - The son of Orientate stopped late after pressing the pace throughout the 8 ½ furlongs of the Grade III Bourbon last time. He finished behind Bittel Road and Ninth Client that day and although the mile distance of this may suit him better he also figures to be facing a much quicker pace. Takes them as far as he goes.
Coronet Of A Baron - Appears to have plenty of tactical speed, looks as though he'll like the mile distance and has been right there at the finish in all three of his career starts. He also has some solid mile grass breeding for his first ever turf start and has worked well leading up. You might want to consider him in a backup role, however, as trainer Harty is on an 0 for 41 first on the grass run.
Paddy The Pro - Another European shipper and another that has never done more than sprint. The son of Exceed and Excel is bred to handle grass and distance and did show a good tracking style overseas. But it will be tough to stretch out vs some of the longer-winded rivals he'll face and he is going back to the grass after a pair of Polytrack sprints. Needs much to break right.
Orthodox - The son of Pulpit finally broke his maiden in start number four last time so class questions are likely a consideration. But it is noteworthy that it was his first turf start and came right here over this course. He is bred to be in this circumstance and has turned in two strong drills since the win so it wouldn't be a complete surprise should he move forward yet again.
Skipadate - After getting beat a head in the Withanticipation Stakes at Belmont he went north and was beaten a head in the Grade III Summer Stakes at Woodbine. The son of Skip Away has improved with each race, and though he dropped that close decision late to Great Adventure, who he'll be facing again in here, has every right to move forward once more.
Bittel Road - Came with a late rush from Louisville to win the Grade III Bourbon at Keeneland in his last after winning the Withanticipation from much closer order in his previous race. The son of Stormy Atlantic has emerged quickly and should be a factor on Saturday, especially if John Velazquez can get him involved a bit earlier. Has done nothing wrong in his 3 for 3 career start.
Great Adventure - A perfect two for two with a MSW and Grade III Summer Stakes win on his resume. The Mark Frostad trained son of Grand Slam simply deepens a race already stocked with experienced middle-distance and well bred turf youngsters. He does have to overcome a tough post, but European shipper Heart Shaped missed by a nose of doing it in the female version of this race on Friday so it isn't out of the realm of possibility, especially for a colt that has rated as kindly as this guy has.
Breeders' Cup Sprint - Short And Sweet
It could be argued that the turf sprint, filly and mare sprint and even the dirt mile...all new inclusions within the last two years...have eaten into the depth of this field, While that is a very real possibility, the race doesn't seem to be suffering too much given the nine runners that will go to the gate on Saturday.
Cost Of Freedom - John Sadler must have a pretty good eye. He claimed this gelding three back for 50K, got an entry allowance win first off the halter and won the Grade I Ancient Title with him last time. Now he's in the BC Sprint with every reason to keep it going. He wore down the pace-setters from a pressing position in the AT and held off the rush of both Street Boss and In Summation, both of whom he'll face again in here. He'd probably be best pressing Fabulous Strike and Fatal Bullet, but may need to call on his speed to clear early from the rail. Either way his current form says he merits the belief he can do it either way.
Street Boss - He had a nifty five race win streak snapped by the rail horse last time as he settled for the place from well off the pace. Trouble is, the same scenario could develop again today. The son of Street Cry is certainly coming to get them all, but he'll need plenty of contention up front and the failure of more than one to get the job done. He's probably almost a lock to hit the board...getting to the top spot will take a huge effort.
Fabulous Strike - Has won 6 of his last 8 but dropped a tough one when he got stuck down on the rail in the sloppy Grade I Vosburgh last time and settled for a head-beaten place. On the down side he has never raced on Pro-Ride or any other synthetic surface. On the upside, he's been working brilliantly over both the Presque Isle Tapeta and over this surface in a five furlong drill this past Sunday. Even with some decent speed signed on they have him to catch to beat...and they might not.
Midnight Lute - Is something amiss with the defending champ. It would appear so as he has only managed one race so far in 2008 and that turned out to be a horror show in the Grade II Pat Obrien at Del Mar. Oddly, he worked brilliantly prior to that race and has worked brilliantly since for trainer Bob Baffert so if the comeback failure was due to the bad start and getting steadied in tight shortly thereafter and not to physical problems, look out.
First Defence - In his last seven races the versatile for surface and distance 4-year old has run a super race and a horrible race one after the other. Fortunately for trainer Bob Frankel his last effort was a 24 lengths beaten stinker in the slop in the Vosburgh so if pattern holds he'll bounce back big time. Three back he crushed the Grade I Forego field on a fast dirt track and five races back he won the Grade III Jaipur on a yielding turf course. He turned in a bullet best of seventy five furlongs in :57 4/5 over the Pro-Ride surface on Sunday, so he may be a go.
Black Seventeen - The upset winner of the Grade I Vosburgh enters at the top of his game. The question is, whether or not the Vosburgh win was sloppy surface induced or the colt is at the top of his game. Prior to the victory he had dropped three straight vs lesser on fast tracks and before that grabbed a win at Calder in the Grade II Carryback over an off dirt track. But he does have solid pressing speed and did win two straight at Hollywood last May so may benefit from the move back to synthetic. Tough call, but he has the ability.
In Summation - His best form appears behind him right now as four straight losses following five wins in six races would attest. But he has been around things against some pretty good competition lately so there is always the specter of a return to his best...especially coming from the barn of Christophe Clement, who doesn't run them unless they are fit. Another that belongs on his best.
Sing Baby Sing - Hailing from Lone Star, Zia Park, Remington Park and Prairie Meadows the son of Unbridled's Song is likely to get overlooked. But any horse that could hold such consistent form as to finish first or second I eight of ten races at five different race tracks vs stakes foes of any level has to be given more than a passing glance. He's likely to be every part of his 30-1 morning line. But so was Sealy Hill when she came within a neck of winning yesterday's BC Filly & Mare Turf.
Fatal Bullet - The son of Red Bullet definitely belongs with these as he proved in his last three daylight wins over three separate synthetic turf courses, culminating in the Grade III Kentucky Cup Sprint at Turfway Park in his last. He is a 3-year old and he will only be facing older for the second time in his career, but he has won 7 of 10 and his speed is genuine.