Who are these guys?
Trotman
Senior Member
As New York Thoroughbred racing transitions from summer and early fall into the winter season, there is a fundamental change in the product. Gone is the high class daily racing we expect at Saratoga and Belmont, replaced by the trench warfare known as Aqueduct.
The cards drawn for Wednesday and Thursday provide the evidence. 16 of the 18 scheduled races are either claiming events, races restricted to New York-breds, or maiden claimers. That is not necessarily a bad thing. Races like these provide an excellent proving ground for newer fans hoping to sharpen their skill. In addition, regular players get a steady diet of familiar horses. That makes the handicapping process less stressful than sorting out the complex fields competing at the Spa.
However, players must realize races will be won by stables which almost never have a hope to succeed at Saratoga. There may be no future Hall of Famers among their midst, but these folks can prepare a horse to win, or at least complete an exotic wager by finishing in the money. November 7 was a milestone day for Naipaul Chatterpaul. According to statistics provided by Daily Racing Form's Formulator program, Chatterpaul saddled the first winning horse in his U.S. training career.
The horse in question was Sir Sapphire. The three-year-old gelding was making his second start for Chatterpaul after being winless in seven outings for his previous trainer. Sir Sapphire had shown immediate improvement for his new conditioner October 26, chasing a heavy favorite and posting an excellent second. The 'wise guys' who played against the horse last time because of his little-known connections paid the price.
Chatterpaul has had 15 starters since September 27. Seven of them finished in the top four. His horses have been running better than odds, providing juice for exotic bettors.
Only four went to post at less than 10-1. Besides his winner, Chatterpaul saddled Missile Motor to a second-place finish, beaten a neck at 6-1. The odds for his other on the board finishers ranged from 11-1 to 37-1.
Randi Persaud should be a recognizable name to New York fans. Formerly a jockey, Persaud has been training horses since early this year.
Formulator statistics through Sunday credit Persaud with 144 starters, 19 winners, and 36 other in-the-money finishers. If you had wagered $2.00 to win on every one, you would have earned a net profit of $121.00 for a return on investment (ROI) of $2.84. Those are the kind of numbers that make bettors take notice.
Anyone prescient enough to eliminate Persaud's turf starters would have done even better. He has zero winners from 33 turfers, with only four finishing in the money. On dirt alone, Persaud has been a 17 percent hitter, with a potent $3.68 ROI.
One thing which separates Persaud from many low profile horsemen is consistency. When he gets a good horse it generally runs competitively each time out. For example, Are We Dreamin has started 13 times in 2008. The filly has four wins, two seconds, three thirds, and a pair of fourth-place finishes. Only twice has she been off the board, and she was beaten less than five lengths in both of those starts.
Persaud has gotten multiple wins this year from Commissioner Chris, Reyana's Jet, Wood Winner, and Yes It's the Truth.
Although still without a victory this year, I won't be shocked when Bisnath Parboo gets his first winner. That may sound strange, considering the trainer stands at zero for 57 for 2008, with only 10 in-the-money.
However, lately he has saddled some interesting maidens. On October 26 Parboo debuted first-time starter Giant Ryan. The son of Freud finished a solid third at 12-1. The colt had been training steady, showing some fine morning works. One of the most difficult things to do is win with horse which has never before raced.
Early on the same day Parboo and owner Sherry Parbhoo (the different spelling is correct) cashed a second-place ticket on another firster, Big Bonnie. The performance of these two horses suggests it was no fluke.
Nor is it usually a fluke when a trainer brings a maiden off a layoff and gets a dramatic improvement. So it was on October 8 for Parboo and Sky Ranger.
The gelding had been beaten by an incomprehensible 119 lengths in his first two starts. That makes Sky Ranger's 13-length loss last time look like a veritable victory. Was the class level lower than where he had raced before? Yes. But the horse showed strong speed, like he had discovered he might want to be a racehorse.
Assaf Ronen may be poised to be the best of this group. The latest statistics reveal he has six winners from 29 starters in 2008, with seven others finishing in the money. Ronen has done extremely well at the claiming game, hitting more than 20 percent, with an ROI approaching $4.00. Discovery Launch is a case in point.
The filly was haltered for $16,000 on August 15. After a solid fourth going a mile and 70 yards at Monmouth, Ronen boosted her to the $25,000 level at Belmont October 9. Discovery Launch hounded favored Peleliu and drew away from her and all the rest. She returned a generous $71.50 to her backers.
The bottom line is this. Aqueduct racing is the time to evaluate horses based on their current form. While it is true that a trainer like Rick Dutrow will win more races from his next two-dozen starters than these four combined will win all winter, you cannot ignore the smaller horsemen. They all have to eat.
This article was originally published on troyrecord.com
The cards drawn for Wednesday and Thursday provide the evidence. 16 of the 18 scheduled races are either claiming events, races restricted to New York-breds, or maiden claimers. That is not necessarily a bad thing. Races like these provide an excellent proving ground for newer fans hoping to sharpen their skill. In addition, regular players get a steady diet of familiar horses. That makes the handicapping process less stressful than sorting out the complex fields competing at the Spa.
However, players must realize races will be won by stables which almost never have a hope to succeed at Saratoga. There may be no future Hall of Famers among their midst, but these folks can prepare a horse to win, or at least complete an exotic wager by finishing in the money. November 7 was a milestone day for Naipaul Chatterpaul. According to statistics provided by Daily Racing Form's Formulator program, Chatterpaul saddled the first winning horse in his U.S. training career.
The horse in question was Sir Sapphire. The three-year-old gelding was making his second start for Chatterpaul after being winless in seven outings for his previous trainer. Sir Sapphire had shown immediate improvement for his new conditioner October 26, chasing a heavy favorite and posting an excellent second. The 'wise guys' who played against the horse last time because of his little-known connections paid the price.
Chatterpaul has had 15 starters since September 27. Seven of them finished in the top four. His horses have been running better than odds, providing juice for exotic bettors.
Only four went to post at less than 10-1. Besides his winner, Chatterpaul saddled Missile Motor to a second-place finish, beaten a neck at 6-1. The odds for his other on the board finishers ranged from 11-1 to 37-1.
Randi Persaud should be a recognizable name to New York fans. Formerly a jockey, Persaud has been training horses since early this year.
Formulator statistics through Sunday credit Persaud with 144 starters, 19 winners, and 36 other in-the-money finishers. If you had wagered $2.00 to win on every one, you would have earned a net profit of $121.00 for a return on investment (ROI) of $2.84. Those are the kind of numbers that make bettors take notice.
Anyone prescient enough to eliminate Persaud's turf starters would have done even better. He has zero winners from 33 turfers, with only four finishing in the money. On dirt alone, Persaud has been a 17 percent hitter, with a potent $3.68 ROI.
One thing which separates Persaud from many low profile horsemen is consistency. When he gets a good horse it generally runs competitively each time out. For example, Are We Dreamin has started 13 times in 2008. The filly has four wins, two seconds, three thirds, and a pair of fourth-place finishes. Only twice has she been off the board, and she was beaten less than five lengths in both of those starts.
Persaud has gotten multiple wins this year from Commissioner Chris, Reyana's Jet, Wood Winner, and Yes It's the Truth.
Although still without a victory this year, I won't be shocked when Bisnath Parboo gets his first winner. That may sound strange, considering the trainer stands at zero for 57 for 2008, with only 10 in-the-money.
However, lately he has saddled some interesting maidens. On October 26 Parboo debuted first-time starter Giant Ryan. The son of Freud finished a solid third at 12-1. The colt had been training steady, showing some fine morning works. One of the most difficult things to do is win with horse which has never before raced.
Early on the same day Parboo and owner Sherry Parbhoo (the different spelling is correct) cashed a second-place ticket on another firster, Big Bonnie. The performance of these two horses suggests it was no fluke.
Nor is it usually a fluke when a trainer brings a maiden off a layoff and gets a dramatic improvement. So it was on October 8 for Parboo and Sky Ranger.
The gelding had been beaten by an incomprehensible 119 lengths in his first two starts. That makes Sky Ranger's 13-length loss last time look like a veritable victory. Was the class level lower than where he had raced before? Yes. But the horse showed strong speed, like he had discovered he might want to be a racehorse.
Assaf Ronen may be poised to be the best of this group. The latest statistics reveal he has six winners from 29 starters in 2008, with seven others finishing in the money. Ronen has done extremely well at the claiming game, hitting more than 20 percent, with an ROI approaching $4.00. Discovery Launch is a case in point.
The filly was haltered for $16,000 on August 15. After a solid fourth going a mile and 70 yards at Monmouth, Ronen boosted her to the $25,000 level at Belmont October 9. Discovery Launch hounded favored Peleliu and drew away from her and all the rest. She returned a generous $71.50 to her backers.
The bottom line is this. Aqueduct racing is the time to evaluate horses based on their current form. While it is true that a trainer like Rick Dutrow will win more races from his next two-dozen starters than these four combined will win all winter, you cannot ignore the smaller horsemen. They all have to eat.
This article was originally published on troyrecord.com