Winning Trends To Watch On Aqueduct's Main Track
Trotman
Senior Member
WINNING TRENDS TO WATCH ON AQUEDUCT'S MAIN TRACK
Depending on whether or not you are a glass-half-full or glass-half-empty kind of person, you could be looking at the Aqueduct fall main track meet and thinking either that the meet is half over, or that nearly half the meet is still to come before the long, cold winter on the Big A's inner track begins in New York. This article is pointed at those who take the attitude that there is still two weeks remaining of Aqueduct's main track meet, and approximately two more weeks or more of turf racing is yet to come in what amounts to the best weeks of racing remaining this year on the NYRA calendar.
After a period of wet weather in mid-November, things are back to normal in New York with clear skies expected to be prevalent in the long-term forecast through Thanksgiving weekend. This should mean that turf racing continues and that field sizes, which have been very solid in times of good track conditions, should have the starting gates full of horses resulting in good betting races for the balance of the month.
Through November 18, Alan Garcia and Edgar Prado have been the key forces to respect in the Aqueduct jockey's room, with Garcia leading the way in terms of wins with 13, while Prado tops the ranks in terms of winning percentage riding at a 23% clip (10 wins with 44 mounts).
In the trainer ranks, Gary Contessa is back to his customary spot on top of the standings this time of year due, in large part, to his sheer numbers advantage. Contessa leads the standings with 11 wins (18%) for a five-win lead over Richard Dutrow's six wins, but it should be noted that he's also started 62 horses already at the meet. The next most prolific trainers in terms of number of starters have been Dutrow and Todd Pletcher, who both sent out 26 runners through the first three weeks of the meet. Speaking of Pletcher, he has been winning at a very slim 12% win percentage with only 3 wins from his first 26 starters, meaning that the Return on Investment (ROI) on all of his runners has been absolutely dreadful for his followers. His runners will either be "due" over the course of the next couple weeks, or should be avoided like the plague based on how they've been running recently. Handicappers should decide which camp they're in and bet on him or bet against him accordingly at this meet the rest of the way.
Pletcher might be a "bet against" right now, but there have been other trainers picking up the slack nicely at the Big A meet so far. Trainers who absolutely must be respected now include the Aqueduct meet's high percentage standout barns such as James Jerkens (5-for-10, 50% wins), Seth Benzel (5-for-13, 38% wins and 62% in the exacta), and Randi Persaud (5-for-14, 36% wins, 64% in the exacta). Other trainers with fewer starters have also excelled at the meet so far. That group includes Dan Peitz (3-for-7, 43% wins), John Hertler (3-for-8, 38% wins), and Bruce Brown (3-for-9, 33% wins).
On the flip side, other name trainers have been flopping at Aqueduct so far, including the aforementioned Pletcher, and guys like Mark Hennig (2-for-20, 10% wins), David Jacobson (2-for-19, 11% wins), and surprisingly Bruce Levine (2-for-19, 11% wins). This is in addition to Allen Jerkens (1-for-24 (4%), who has been ill, and a group of winless wonders such as Barclay Tagg (0-for-22), Bill Mott (0-for-13), Tim Ritvo (0-for-20, and John Campo (0-for-19), just to name a few.
Big A main track HOT trainers
Frank Alexander
Seth Benzel
Bruce Brown
Gary Contessa
Richard Dutrow
Dominic Galluscio
John Hertler
James Jerkens
Kiaran McLaughlin
Dan Peitz
Randi Persaud
Pat Reynolds
Big A main track COLD trainers
Bobby Barbara
John Campo
Mark Hennig
David Jacobson
Allen Jerkens
Bruce Levine
Bill Mott
Todd Pletcher
Tim Ritvo
Barclay Tagg
When trainer-jockey combinations are taken into consideration, there have been a few standout tandems that bear watching for the remainder of the Aqueduct main track meet and perhaps beyond. Randi Persaud has been racking up wins in tandem with 7-pound apprentice Maylan Studart with 5 wins in 11 outings, plus 3 seconds and a third for an in-the-money percentage of 82%! Those numbers are even ahead of such tried-and-true pairings like Richard Dutrow and Edgar Prado (4-for-12, 33%) and Kiaran McLaughlin and Alan Garcia (4-for-14, 29%), who have both still been as strong as ever at the meet.
Meanwhile, 3 of Tom Albertrani's 4 wins at the meet have come with Jeffrey Sanchez in the irons, 3 of James Jerkens' 5 wins have come with Richard Migliore, and 2 of Seth Benzel's 5 wins so far have come with Alan Garcia (combo is 2-for-2). Gary Contessa has used a variety of jockeys for his 11 winners, but the go-to guys so far have been Norberto Arroyo Jr. (4 wins) and Sebastian Morales (3 wins). Additionally, always be on the lookout for the Chad Brown Jose Lezcano combination. They've won at a 42% clip, mainly in New Jersey, over the course of the last year or so. Lezcano is also dangerous when he mounts up for Richard Dutrow, with 2 wins in 3 mounts so far at Aqueduct.
Where are the top trainers winning their races? Nearly half of Gary Contessa's 11 wins have come with favorites, and most (9 of 11) have come on the dirt. Seth Benzel has been winning both on dirt (3-for-11) and on turf (2-for-2), with a big-time $23.90 average win payoff. That's in stark contract to betting Contessa's band of low-priced horses and favorites, that have yielded an average win payoff of $9.40. Also, as you'd probably expect, Randi Persaud's horses have seldom been well-bet, and have come in with an average win payoff of a big $34.20!
Benzel and Persaud have been amongst the ROI leaders at the meet so far, but which trainers have been amongst the worst? Well obviously, all of the low-percentage trainers listed above in the list of cold trainers have been betting busts over the last three weeks, especially guys like Mott and Tagg who are winless. Among trainers with 3 or more wins at the meet, some of the worst in terms of ROI are Dominic Gallucio ($7.10 average win payoff), David Jacobson ($5.50 average win payoff), and Todd Pletcher ($7.40 average win payoff).
As far as surfaces are concerned, Tom Albertani has won a pair of races so far both on the turf and on the dirt, while conversely, all of Richard Dutrow's 6 wins, all of Dominic Galluscio's 5 wins, all of Randi Persaud's 5 wins, and all of James Jerkens' 5 wins have been on the main track. That group is a combined 0-for-6 on the turf. That's not surprising, perhaps, but what is more surprising is that Todd Pletcher, too, is winless on the Big A turf so far, going 0-for-10. With Pletcher cold on the lawn, there really hasn't been any one trainer picking up the slack on the grass. No Big A trainer so far has more than 2 grass wins at the meet.
Finally, in terms of post positions, this Big A main track meet has been fairly predictable so far. On grass (with no turf sprints run at this meet), posts 5 and inside have been the best, and any turf post no further out than 8 has been acceptable. Posts 9-12, on the other hand, have been at a disadvantage with a combined 1 win out of 48 starters from those four outside posts (2% wins).
On the dirt, too few main track two-turn races have been run to glean any trends, but plenty of one-turn sprints and miles have been run so far that have yielded some good information. Overall, all posts have played pretty fairly when all Aqueduct one-turn races are considered. However, when you break it down by distance, you will see that inside posts are better the shorter you go, and less and less effective as the races become longer all the way on outward to one mile.
At 6 furlongs, the rail post has been by far the best place to be with 25% wins (13-for-51). This is in contrast to the numbers at one mile where the rail post is only 4-for-42 (10%). Other than the bad one-hole, however, mile races have been run fairly for the most part, with the exception of perhaps a small disadvantage to post numbers 8-10. Back at six furlongs, other than the big rail advantage, things even out a bit in terms of post position bias. Do note, however, that win percentages slide slightly downward the further you get outward from the rail at 6 furlongs.
There are just a couple weeks of action still to come before racing at Aqueduct switches to the inner track for the winter. Therefore, now is the time to take note of the trends we've seen so far and then capitalize on them while racing still remains on the Aqueduct main track. Good luck the rest of the way!
Depending on whether or not you are a glass-half-full or glass-half-empty kind of person, you could be looking at the Aqueduct fall main track meet and thinking either that the meet is half over, or that nearly half the meet is still to come before the long, cold winter on the Big A's inner track begins in New York. This article is pointed at those who take the attitude that there is still two weeks remaining of Aqueduct's main track meet, and approximately two more weeks or more of turf racing is yet to come in what amounts to the best weeks of racing remaining this year on the NYRA calendar.
After a period of wet weather in mid-November, things are back to normal in New York with clear skies expected to be prevalent in the long-term forecast through Thanksgiving weekend. This should mean that turf racing continues and that field sizes, which have been very solid in times of good track conditions, should have the starting gates full of horses resulting in good betting races for the balance of the month.
Through November 18, Alan Garcia and Edgar Prado have been the key forces to respect in the Aqueduct jockey's room, with Garcia leading the way in terms of wins with 13, while Prado tops the ranks in terms of winning percentage riding at a 23% clip (10 wins with 44 mounts).
In the trainer ranks, Gary Contessa is back to his customary spot on top of the standings this time of year due, in large part, to his sheer numbers advantage. Contessa leads the standings with 11 wins (18%) for a five-win lead over Richard Dutrow's six wins, but it should be noted that he's also started 62 horses already at the meet. The next most prolific trainers in terms of number of starters have been Dutrow and Todd Pletcher, who both sent out 26 runners through the first three weeks of the meet. Speaking of Pletcher, he has been winning at a very slim 12% win percentage with only 3 wins from his first 26 starters, meaning that the Return on Investment (ROI) on all of his runners has been absolutely dreadful for his followers. His runners will either be "due" over the course of the next couple weeks, or should be avoided like the plague based on how they've been running recently. Handicappers should decide which camp they're in and bet on him or bet against him accordingly at this meet the rest of the way.
Pletcher might be a "bet against" right now, but there have been other trainers picking up the slack nicely at the Big A meet so far. Trainers who absolutely must be respected now include the Aqueduct meet's high percentage standout barns such as James Jerkens (5-for-10, 50% wins), Seth Benzel (5-for-13, 38% wins and 62% in the exacta), and Randi Persaud (5-for-14, 36% wins, 64% in the exacta). Other trainers with fewer starters have also excelled at the meet so far. That group includes Dan Peitz (3-for-7, 43% wins), John Hertler (3-for-8, 38% wins), and Bruce Brown (3-for-9, 33% wins).
On the flip side, other name trainers have been flopping at Aqueduct so far, including the aforementioned Pletcher, and guys like Mark Hennig (2-for-20, 10% wins), David Jacobson (2-for-19, 11% wins), and surprisingly Bruce Levine (2-for-19, 11% wins). This is in addition to Allen Jerkens (1-for-24 (4%), who has been ill, and a group of winless wonders such as Barclay Tagg (0-for-22), Bill Mott (0-for-13), Tim Ritvo (0-for-20, and John Campo (0-for-19), just to name a few.
Big A main track HOT trainers
Frank Alexander
Seth Benzel
Bruce Brown
Gary Contessa
Richard Dutrow
Dominic Galluscio
John Hertler
James Jerkens
Kiaran McLaughlin
Dan Peitz
Randi Persaud
Pat Reynolds
Big A main track COLD trainers
Bobby Barbara
John Campo
Mark Hennig
David Jacobson
Allen Jerkens
Bruce Levine
Bill Mott
Todd Pletcher
Tim Ritvo
Barclay Tagg
When trainer-jockey combinations are taken into consideration, there have been a few standout tandems that bear watching for the remainder of the Aqueduct main track meet and perhaps beyond. Randi Persaud has been racking up wins in tandem with 7-pound apprentice Maylan Studart with 5 wins in 11 outings, plus 3 seconds and a third for an in-the-money percentage of 82%! Those numbers are even ahead of such tried-and-true pairings like Richard Dutrow and Edgar Prado (4-for-12, 33%) and Kiaran McLaughlin and Alan Garcia (4-for-14, 29%), who have both still been as strong as ever at the meet.
Meanwhile, 3 of Tom Albertrani's 4 wins at the meet have come with Jeffrey Sanchez in the irons, 3 of James Jerkens' 5 wins have come with Richard Migliore, and 2 of Seth Benzel's 5 wins so far have come with Alan Garcia (combo is 2-for-2). Gary Contessa has used a variety of jockeys for his 11 winners, but the go-to guys so far have been Norberto Arroyo Jr. (4 wins) and Sebastian Morales (3 wins). Additionally, always be on the lookout for the Chad Brown Jose Lezcano combination. They've won at a 42% clip, mainly in New Jersey, over the course of the last year or so. Lezcano is also dangerous when he mounts up for Richard Dutrow, with 2 wins in 3 mounts so far at Aqueduct.
Where are the top trainers winning their races? Nearly half of Gary Contessa's 11 wins have come with favorites, and most (9 of 11) have come on the dirt. Seth Benzel has been winning both on dirt (3-for-11) and on turf (2-for-2), with a big-time $23.90 average win payoff. That's in stark contract to betting Contessa's band of low-priced horses and favorites, that have yielded an average win payoff of $9.40. Also, as you'd probably expect, Randi Persaud's horses have seldom been well-bet, and have come in with an average win payoff of a big $34.20!
Benzel and Persaud have been amongst the ROI leaders at the meet so far, but which trainers have been amongst the worst? Well obviously, all of the low-percentage trainers listed above in the list of cold trainers have been betting busts over the last three weeks, especially guys like Mott and Tagg who are winless. Among trainers with 3 or more wins at the meet, some of the worst in terms of ROI are Dominic Gallucio ($7.10 average win payoff), David Jacobson ($5.50 average win payoff), and Todd Pletcher ($7.40 average win payoff).
As far as surfaces are concerned, Tom Albertani has won a pair of races so far both on the turf and on the dirt, while conversely, all of Richard Dutrow's 6 wins, all of Dominic Galluscio's 5 wins, all of Randi Persaud's 5 wins, and all of James Jerkens' 5 wins have been on the main track. That group is a combined 0-for-6 on the turf. That's not surprising, perhaps, but what is more surprising is that Todd Pletcher, too, is winless on the Big A turf so far, going 0-for-10. With Pletcher cold on the lawn, there really hasn't been any one trainer picking up the slack on the grass. No Big A trainer so far has more than 2 grass wins at the meet.
Finally, in terms of post positions, this Big A main track meet has been fairly predictable so far. On grass (with no turf sprints run at this meet), posts 5 and inside have been the best, and any turf post no further out than 8 has been acceptable. Posts 9-12, on the other hand, have been at a disadvantage with a combined 1 win out of 48 starters from those four outside posts (2% wins).
On the dirt, too few main track two-turn races have been run to glean any trends, but plenty of one-turn sprints and miles have been run so far that have yielded some good information. Overall, all posts have played pretty fairly when all Aqueduct one-turn races are considered. However, when you break it down by distance, you will see that inside posts are better the shorter you go, and less and less effective as the races become longer all the way on outward to one mile.
At 6 furlongs, the rail post has been by far the best place to be with 25% wins (13-for-51). This is in contrast to the numbers at one mile where the rail post is only 4-for-42 (10%). Other than the bad one-hole, however, mile races have been run fairly for the most part, with the exception of perhaps a small disadvantage to post numbers 8-10. Back at six furlongs, other than the big rail advantage, things even out a bit in terms of post position bias. Do note, however, that win percentages slide slightly downward the further you get outward from the rail at 6 furlongs.
There are just a couple weeks of action still to come before racing at Aqueduct switches to the inner track for the winter. Therefore, now is the time to take note of the trends we've seen so far and then capitalize on them while racing still remains on the Aqueduct main track. Good luck the rest of the way!