Since the inner track at the Big A just started
Trotman
Senior Member
I thought it would be appropriate to share some thoughts from last year's meet....that really can apply to any meet...this Big A, SA coming up, along with Tampa Bay Downs (opening this week) and Gulfstream (opening early January)
Aqueduct's inner track is renowned as a speed favoring and inside favoring racetrack, which is susceptible to trends and biases. This 2007/2008 meet has been no exception. Most racing days between Dec. 26, 2007 and Feb. 10, 2008 showed at least some form of track bias, either in terms of running styles or running paths. While the bias has, in fact, subsided mostly over the past few weeks, it is always a threat to return at any time. Even if it doesn't return, one is still currently in the prime time for handicappers to play the recent track biases that have existed at Aqueduct and capitalize on what we know about the track biases over the last couple months when the horses come back to run in their next races.
Horseplayers must be able to see the value in following their track's biases in order to turn into more consistent and successful handicappers. This much we know. Once you know how important track biases are, and become able to identify when they were in play and how they have affected the races, you then will be able to apply what you know to the upcoming race cards in order to reap the benefits of the information you have..
Here is a chart detailing the track biases noted on the Aqueduct inner track from late December to the end of February:
AQUEDUCT TRACK BIASES
Feb. 29 Speed favoring
Feb. 18 Good rail
Feb. 15 Strong speed bias in sprints
Feb. 10 Speed favoring
Feb. 9 Speed favoring
Feb. 8 Extreme inside speed bias
Feb. 7 Extreme inside speed bias
Feb. 6 Extreme inside speed bias
Jan. 21 Speed favoring
Jan. 20 Speed favoring
Jan. 19 Speed favoring
Jan. 18 Speed favoring
Jan. 16 Edge to speed in sprints
Jan. 13 Helped to be close up
Jan. 12 Helped to be close up
Jan. 9 Helped to be close up
Jan. 6 Speed favoring
Jan. 5 Speed favoring
Jan. 4 Speed favoring
Jan. 3 Speed favoring
Dec. 29 Speed bias
Dec. 28 Speed bias
Dec. 27 Speed bias
Dec. 26 Extreme speed bias
The first stretch when track bias really started to impact the Aqueduct inner track race results was the Wednesday through Saturday just after Christmas, Dec. 26-29. There was a strong speed bias in effect for all of these days especially on Dec. 26 when an extreme speed bias was noted. Closers who never closed who were exiting the races on these days should be given valid excuses for their losses on those days, and closers who somehow managed to close over those tracks have been upgraded by us in their next races.
On the reverse side of the same token, speed horses who benefited from those racetracks en route to wire-to-wire victories have been downgraded for their subsequent starts, especially when the speed figures they earned for the front-running efforts on those days were out of whack with what those horses are usually capable of. This is a reliable indication that the speed favoring track conditions carried those horses to their biases-aided victories.
This theory has held together more or less in the 2+ months of racing that has taken place ever since then UNLESS, of course, the horse's subsequent starts came over nearly equally biased track conditions that have popped up since then.
After the strong speed biases that affected Aqueduct at the end of 2007, more of the same has again happened on occasion in the early months of 2008 (see track bias chart above). The same principles of upgrading closers who had excuses for losses on track biased days and downgrading speed horses for bias-aided wins has applied to horses exiting races held from Jan. 3-6, Jan. 18-21, Feb. 6-10, and to a lesser extent the various other days listed above. This has been an especially potent angle in regards to the horses coming out of the races run on the Aqueduct inner track during the extreme speed biased few days from Feb. 6-8.
The speed biases on the Aqueduct inner track have become more sporadic and less extreme in the time since mid-February (subject to change), but the biases are still no less important to follow when they occur. In the mean time, there is no better time than now to profit from the track biases that have been witnessed so far, which can give handicappers and bettors a unique perspective when it comes to reading and evaluating New York horse's recent past performances.
Remember to always ask yourself if a good horse's good recent past performances were really that good, and if a beaten horse's bad recent past performances were really that bad. Chances are, the track bias information you have at your disposal could be your key to answering all the tough questions, and then profiting from those answers
Aqueduct's inner track is renowned as a speed favoring and inside favoring racetrack, which is susceptible to trends and biases. This 2007/2008 meet has been no exception. Most racing days between Dec. 26, 2007 and Feb. 10, 2008 showed at least some form of track bias, either in terms of running styles or running paths. While the bias has, in fact, subsided mostly over the past few weeks, it is always a threat to return at any time. Even if it doesn't return, one is still currently in the prime time for handicappers to play the recent track biases that have existed at Aqueduct and capitalize on what we know about the track biases over the last couple months when the horses come back to run in their next races.
Horseplayers must be able to see the value in following their track's biases in order to turn into more consistent and successful handicappers. This much we know. Once you know how important track biases are, and become able to identify when they were in play and how they have affected the races, you then will be able to apply what you know to the upcoming race cards in order to reap the benefits of the information you have..
Here is a chart detailing the track biases noted on the Aqueduct inner track from late December to the end of February:
AQUEDUCT TRACK BIASES
Feb. 29 Speed favoring
Feb. 18 Good rail
Feb. 15 Strong speed bias in sprints
Feb. 10 Speed favoring
Feb. 9 Speed favoring
Feb. 8 Extreme inside speed bias
Feb. 7 Extreme inside speed bias
Feb. 6 Extreme inside speed bias
Jan. 21 Speed favoring
Jan. 20 Speed favoring
Jan. 19 Speed favoring
Jan. 18 Speed favoring
Jan. 16 Edge to speed in sprints
Jan. 13 Helped to be close up
Jan. 12 Helped to be close up
Jan. 9 Helped to be close up
Jan. 6 Speed favoring
Jan. 5 Speed favoring
Jan. 4 Speed favoring
Jan. 3 Speed favoring
Dec. 29 Speed bias
Dec. 28 Speed bias
Dec. 27 Speed bias
Dec. 26 Extreme speed bias
The first stretch when track bias really started to impact the Aqueduct inner track race results was the Wednesday through Saturday just after Christmas, Dec. 26-29. There was a strong speed bias in effect for all of these days especially on Dec. 26 when an extreme speed bias was noted. Closers who never closed who were exiting the races on these days should be given valid excuses for their losses on those days, and closers who somehow managed to close over those tracks have been upgraded by us in their next races.
On the reverse side of the same token, speed horses who benefited from those racetracks en route to wire-to-wire victories have been downgraded for their subsequent starts, especially when the speed figures they earned for the front-running efforts on those days were out of whack with what those horses are usually capable of. This is a reliable indication that the speed favoring track conditions carried those horses to their biases-aided victories.
This theory has held together more or less in the 2+ months of racing that has taken place ever since then UNLESS, of course, the horse's subsequent starts came over nearly equally biased track conditions that have popped up since then.
After the strong speed biases that affected Aqueduct at the end of 2007, more of the same has again happened on occasion in the early months of 2008 (see track bias chart above). The same principles of upgrading closers who had excuses for losses on track biased days and downgrading speed horses for bias-aided wins has applied to horses exiting races held from Jan. 3-6, Jan. 18-21, Feb. 6-10, and to a lesser extent the various other days listed above. This has been an especially potent angle in regards to the horses coming out of the races run on the Aqueduct inner track during the extreme speed biased few days from Feb. 6-8.
The speed biases on the Aqueduct inner track have become more sporadic and less extreme in the time since mid-February (subject to change), but the biases are still no less important to follow when they occur. In the mean time, there is no better time than now to profit from the track biases that have been witnessed so far, which can give handicappers and bettors a unique perspective when it comes to reading and evaluating New York horse's recent past performances.
Remember to always ask yourself if a good horse's good recent past performances were really that good, and if a beaten horse's bad recent past performances were really that bad. Chances are, the track bias information you have at your disposal could be your key to answering all the tough questions, and then profiting from those answers
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