Aqueduct 1/2/09 With Analysis
justin13892002
Senior Member
Race 1
1A- Indian War Dance
Contessa entry, has HUGE back class advantage on field. Downfall is that the Beyers have fallen recently. This Classy Gelding Hasn't raced since May, comes in off a long layoff. The reason for the interest is although the Beyers have fallen, The Workout on Dec 9th shows a Bullet 3F in 36 seconds. This shows he is back to normal. Jockey change to Lopez also. Looks like a great spot!
Race 2
3-Chit Chat Cat
Chad Brown Trained, will have Migliore in the irons. Ran 2nd by a length last out at a 30 claimer, now runs in 15 claimer. Only problem could be the Inner Track, but cant see any other reason not to play. By far best beyers of the field, and will def. set/press the pace.
Race 3
1- Spritely
Todd Pletcher is all set here for a big stakes race. Horse is ready. Won by 3 last in the HoneyBee, won by 12 over 3rd place. 3rd 2 back to Informed Decision by almost 2 lengths, who won the Raven Run at Keeneland. Very nice Filly!!!1 Should romp field.
Race 4
5 Mickeless ***UPSET SPECIAL
Channing Hill stays in the saddle here. Form is solid, ITM all of the last 3 races. Although all were at lower classes. I like this horse because of the set-up. Tons of pace in this race, getting good value at 12-1 M/L on a pure closer. Like the freshening, finishing 2nd last out in 35 claimer as a big Underdog sitting at 32-1. Going out on a limb here....
Race 5
6- Carpathian
Dominguez jumps on for Hot Trainer Steven Asmussen. I ALWAYS play Asmussens horses, and especially like this classy filly. Stats show Dominguez is 3 of 7 for this barn this meet. Won by 13 last out for Franky at Philly. Takes another drop in class. Likes a wet track, and tomorrow weather shows snow showers. Love the connections choices here.
Race 6
3- Precursor *** BEST BET
Last race was here at Aqueduct on a muddy surface, 2nd to Masala T, who placed 3rd last out on Dec 19th at Laurel in an Allowance. Drops in class after being 3-1 at the higher class. ITM 3 of 4 lifetime starts. Beyers crush field with 84 being his last, on a Muddy Track!!! Only downfall is this stellar colt Goes 1/16th longer this race, which is a little scary. He lost almost 4 lengths his last call last race. 1/16th longer could be brutal, we will see.
Race 7
8- Peleliu
Scott Lake entry here, changes jockeys to Lopez. Although the stats aren't in favor here of the Jockey switch, the 10K drop in class, and the second start with Lake, who has shown stellar stats with 2nd time starters after the claim, should put her in the thick of things. Lake knows where his horses belong, hopefully this is the right spot.
Race 8
6 Flint River
Pletcher entry here, with Maragh in the saddle. Drops to this 50K OC, from 75K. This after posting a 94 Beyer win at that class. 1 of 1 at this Track, 2 of 3 at this distance. Picks up weight, but don't think that will matter much. Like the choices Pletcher has made lately. Looks like a good spot.
Race 9
6 Jack on the Rocks
Going with another Lake Entry. Won his first start for the Lake barn last out with a 83 Beyer. Like I said previously, Lake does VERY well with the 2nd start after a claim. He is also 26% with horses coming in off a win. Maragh is the go to guy here. No complaints here.
Good Luck
1A- Indian War Dance
Contessa entry, has HUGE back class advantage on field. Downfall is that the Beyers have fallen recently. This Classy Gelding Hasn't raced since May, comes in off a long layoff. The reason for the interest is although the Beyers have fallen, The Workout on Dec 9th shows a Bullet 3F in 36 seconds. This shows he is back to normal. Jockey change to Lopez also. Looks like a great spot!
Race 2
3-Chit Chat Cat
Chad Brown Trained, will have Migliore in the irons. Ran 2nd by a length last out at a 30 claimer, now runs in 15 claimer. Only problem could be the Inner Track, but cant see any other reason not to play. By far best beyers of the field, and will def. set/press the pace.
Race 3
1- Spritely
Todd Pletcher is all set here for a big stakes race. Horse is ready. Won by 3 last in the HoneyBee, won by 12 over 3rd place. 3rd 2 back to Informed Decision by almost 2 lengths, who won the Raven Run at Keeneland. Very nice Filly!!!1 Should romp field.
Race 4
5 Mickeless ***UPSET SPECIAL
Channing Hill stays in the saddle here. Form is solid, ITM all of the last 3 races. Although all were at lower classes. I like this horse because of the set-up. Tons of pace in this race, getting good value at 12-1 M/L on a pure closer. Like the freshening, finishing 2nd last out in 35 claimer as a big Underdog sitting at 32-1. Going out on a limb here....
Race 5
6- Carpathian
Dominguez jumps on for Hot Trainer Steven Asmussen. I ALWAYS play Asmussens horses, and especially like this classy filly. Stats show Dominguez is 3 of 7 for this barn this meet. Won by 13 last out for Franky at Philly. Takes another drop in class. Likes a wet track, and tomorrow weather shows snow showers. Love the connections choices here.
Race 6
3- Precursor *** BEST BET
Last race was here at Aqueduct on a muddy surface, 2nd to Masala T, who placed 3rd last out on Dec 19th at Laurel in an Allowance. Drops in class after being 3-1 at the higher class. ITM 3 of 4 lifetime starts. Beyers crush field with 84 being his last, on a Muddy Track!!! Only downfall is this stellar colt Goes 1/16th longer this race, which is a little scary. He lost almost 4 lengths his last call last race. 1/16th longer could be brutal, we will see.
Race 7
8- Peleliu
Scott Lake entry here, changes jockeys to Lopez. Although the stats aren't in favor here of the Jockey switch, the 10K drop in class, and the second start with Lake, who has shown stellar stats with 2nd time starters after the claim, should put her in the thick of things. Lake knows where his horses belong, hopefully this is the right spot.
Race 8
6 Flint River
Pletcher entry here, with Maragh in the saddle. Drops to this 50K OC, from 75K. This after posting a 94 Beyer win at that class. 1 of 1 at this Track, 2 of 3 at this distance. Picks up weight, but don't think that will matter much. Like the choices Pletcher has made lately. Looks like a good spot.
Race 9
6 Jack on the Rocks
Going with another Lake Entry. Won his first start for the Lake barn last out with a 83 Beyer. Like I said previously, Lake does VERY well with the 2nd start after a claim. He is also 26% with horses coming in off a win. Maragh is the go to guy here. No complaints here.
Good Luck