Philadelphia Full Card 1/6/09 with Analysis
justin13892002
Senior Member
Race 1
2 Market Tumble
Although the odds are unappealing, Carmouche and Violette team up here, good combo. Horse has good class and should run a stalk-style trip. 8/5 M/L is not anything to brag about, but will be there at the wire. Also like 5 Bayside Jazz, 6 Gerritsen, and 4 Jersey Skip. Box these 4 in Exactas and Trifectas.
Race 2
3 Livelovelaugh
Another chalker here, Rivera jumps on. Comes for the Aristone barn, who hasnt done bad this year. Horse is always close at the line, decent at this distance. Like the pace here, hoping to breakaway early and if that happens, look for a wire to wire race.
Race 3
7 Artytheonemanparty
2nd Last out here on this track, Carmouche and Violette tam up once again. Great at this distance. The main problem here is the speed. Horse has a ton early, but nothing late. Will need to find something late here, as there are some closers!
Race 4
5 Joansterrificrose
Outclasses field, great early speed and yet still has something late. Although, never raced at this distance, Hot Jockey Fergal Lynch sees something here. A good wheel horse!
Race 5
4 Sincere Man
Good everything here. I hate these small claiming races, they are tough, as is this one. Like the J/T combo here, 1 Magazine will be tough to beat, 2 Fort Seattle could be there. Tough race, but I like this one out front.
Race 6
1 Eleftheria *** UPSET SPECIAL
Horse is decent all around. Toss up race, why not go with the 10-1 M/L who is the best stretch runner of the field. King is riding, I would have liked to see others, but why not? I like the way the horse fits this race. Good Value!
Race 7
7 Majestic Slewville
Lake trained, picks up Arce here, good choice. Horse has good pace, with a touch of late speed. Lake knows where to put his horses to give them a shot. His horses placed 2nd, 4th, and 5th yesterday. They are always close. 5/2 M/L but dont believe horse will go off favorite. Hope for some value.
Race 8
1 Law Breaker, or if scratched, 3 Kudu
Like the 1 Law Breaker here, but is a coupled entry. If this horse is the one scratched play Kudu. Law Breaker should win if not scratched. Horse has too much on the field, if scratched play Kudu, who should go off at around 4-1 or so. I like that Carmouche is on Kudu in this type of race.
Race 9
11 Heartbreaker Trail *** Upset Special
Kicking out the favorite for the top spot here, I like this 11 Heartbraker trail because of the jockey choice, at his favorite distance. Horse is decent at this distance. I beleive I chose Gossip Gil last time she raced. 10-1 M/L is decent value. Last race of the card is always an exciting one.
2 Market Tumble
Although the odds are unappealing, Carmouche and Violette team up here, good combo. Horse has good class and should run a stalk-style trip. 8/5 M/L is not anything to brag about, but will be there at the wire. Also like 5 Bayside Jazz, 6 Gerritsen, and 4 Jersey Skip. Box these 4 in Exactas and Trifectas.
Race 2
3 Livelovelaugh
Another chalker here, Rivera jumps on. Comes for the Aristone barn, who hasnt done bad this year. Horse is always close at the line, decent at this distance. Like the pace here, hoping to breakaway early and if that happens, look for a wire to wire race.
Race 3
7 Artytheonemanparty
2nd Last out here on this track, Carmouche and Violette tam up once again. Great at this distance. The main problem here is the speed. Horse has a ton early, but nothing late. Will need to find something late here, as there are some closers!
Race 4
5 Joansterrificrose
Outclasses field, great early speed and yet still has something late. Although, never raced at this distance, Hot Jockey Fergal Lynch sees something here. A good wheel horse!
Race 5
4 Sincere Man
Good everything here. I hate these small claiming races, they are tough, as is this one. Like the J/T combo here, 1 Magazine will be tough to beat, 2 Fort Seattle could be there. Tough race, but I like this one out front.
Race 6
1 Eleftheria *** UPSET SPECIAL
Horse is decent all around. Toss up race, why not go with the 10-1 M/L who is the best stretch runner of the field. King is riding, I would have liked to see others, but why not? I like the way the horse fits this race. Good Value!
Race 7
7 Majestic Slewville
Lake trained, picks up Arce here, good choice. Horse has good pace, with a touch of late speed. Lake knows where to put his horses to give them a shot. His horses placed 2nd, 4th, and 5th yesterday. They are always close. 5/2 M/L but dont believe horse will go off favorite. Hope for some value.
Race 8
1 Law Breaker, or if scratched, 3 Kudu
Like the 1 Law Breaker here, but is a coupled entry. If this horse is the one scratched play Kudu. Law Breaker should win if not scratched. Horse has too much on the field, if scratched play Kudu, who should go off at around 4-1 or so. I like that Carmouche is on Kudu in this type of race.
Race 9
11 Heartbreaker Trail *** Upset Special
Kicking out the favorite for the top spot here, I like this 11 Heartbraker trail because of the jockey choice, at his favorite distance. Horse is decent at this distance. I beleive I chose Gossip Gil last time she raced. 10-1 M/L is decent value. Last race of the card is always an exciting one.
Comments
WIN- $2.80 out front
Exacta- $13.80
Livelovelaugh just didnt have enough late
So Far
2 Starts
1 Win
1 Place
3 Starts
2 Wins
1 Place
So Far
4 Selections
2 Win
2 Places
Fort Seattle and Magazine were there, Sincere Man didnt come in. 11-1 Fort Seattle was!!!! Thats a tough one to swallow!!!! Oh well
So far
5 selections
2 Wins
2 Places
My Upset Special's 10-1 M/L odds drop to 7/2 unfortunately!!!!!!
WINS Paying $9.20 Out Front
6 Selections
3 Wins
2 Places
Race 1- WIN $2.80 Out Front
Race 2- PLACE
Race 3- WIN $2.60 Out Front
Race 4- PLACE
Race 5- OUT
Race 6- WIN $9.20 Out Front
Race 7- OUT
Race 8- Lawbreaker scratched, Kudu Showed
Race 9- OUT
08-09 Handicapping Stats
38 Selections
15 Wins
11 Places
3 Show
Win %= 39%