Derby future book thread
DiscreetCat
Moderator
I was gonna post this in the Horses to Watch thread, but since it's officially Derby season now, i figured a seperate thread for Derby prospects would be nice.
Free Country (1/8 @ GP, Race 6)
I actually gave this Ken McPeek-trained horse out on my site yesterday. He had ran a whale of a race @ Churchill back in November, launching a huge late rally to run past Soul Warrior in deep stretch. Making his rally even more impressive is the fact that Soul Warrior finished over 6 lengths clear of the rest of the 12-horse field, and subsequently returned to score a sharp win at Fair Grounds last week when stretched out to two turns. While Free Country's final time looked slow that day at 1:12 1/5, it was actually very good when you consider that the fine Pletcher stakes-type Game Face had run 7 furlongs in a snail-like 1:25 3/5 over the same surface just an hour earlier.
For yesterday's race at Gulfstream, Free Country was stretching WAY out from 6 furlongs to 1 1/8 miles, while having not raced since November. Not an easy task, particularly when stepping up to face a horse who had just run second to Old Fashioned in the Remsen. He also appeared to be missing a workout in late December, though he was coming into the race off a heads-up drill with barnmate Danger to Society, a sharp Churchill maiden winner who ended up winning yesterday's 8th race. Also of note was that jockey Kent Desormeaux was getting off the Bill Mott-trained entrant Stormalory (whom he had ridden 3 straight times, nost recently in a graded stakes) in order to stay with Free Country. In the race itself, Free Country was stuck down inside while stalking the pace from much closer-up than he had been in his debut, where came from 10 lengths behind. That may have been due to the slower route fractiuons, or it may signal a change in tactics. Anyway, he was stuck behind horses along the rail while clearly full of run, and was lucky enough to have the leader drift off the rail when turning for home, at which point he promptly shot thru and took command. The only bad thing i can say is that he failed to opern up, but again, this isa horse who was stretching way out in distance while coming off a layoff, and he did maintain his advantage over that Remsen runner-up once he took the lead. McPeek had also mentioned before the race that Free Country (and his other trainees in the two alowance races yesterday) were "not overdone" for the race. So taking all this into account, i've have to expect further improvement from this colt, who is already 2-for-2 at two different racetracks. It also doesn't hurt that he's already a winner at 1 1/8 miles, someything not very many 3yo's can say right now. Definitely one to follow.
Free Country (1/8 @ GP, Race 6)
I actually gave this Ken McPeek-trained horse out on my site yesterday. He had ran a whale of a race @ Churchill back in November, launching a huge late rally to run past Soul Warrior in deep stretch. Making his rally even more impressive is the fact that Soul Warrior finished over 6 lengths clear of the rest of the 12-horse field, and subsequently returned to score a sharp win at Fair Grounds last week when stretched out to two turns. While Free Country's final time looked slow that day at 1:12 1/5, it was actually very good when you consider that the fine Pletcher stakes-type Game Face had run 7 furlongs in a snail-like 1:25 3/5 over the same surface just an hour earlier.
For yesterday's race at Gulfstream, Free Country was stretching WAY out from 6 furlongs to 1 1/8 miles, while having not raced since November. Not an easy task, particularly when stepping up to face a horse who had just run second to Old Fashioned in the Remsen. He also appeared to be missing a workout in late December, though he was coming into the race off a heads-up drill with barnmate Danger to Society, a sharp Churchill maiden winner who ended up winning yesterday's 8th race. Also of note was that jockey Kent Desormeaux was getting off the Bill Mott-trained entrant Stormalory (whom he had ridden 3 straight times, nost recently in a graded stakes) in order to stay with Free Country. In the race itself, Free Country was stuck down inside while stalking the pace from much closer-up than he had been in his debut, where came from 10 lengths behind. That may have been due to the slower route fractiuons, or it may signal a change in tactics. Anyway, he was stuck behind horses along the rail while clearly full of run, and was lucky enough to have the leader drift off the rail when turning for home, at which point he promptly shot thru and took command. The only bad thing i can say is that he failed to opern up, but again, this isa horse who was stretching way out in distance while coming off a layoff, and he did maintain his advantage over that Remsen runner-up once he took the lead. McPeek had also mentioned before the race that Free Country (and his other trainees in the two alowance races yesterday) were "not overdone" for the race. So taking all this into account, i've have to expect further improvement from this colt, who is already 2-for-2 at two different racetracks. It also doesn't hurt that he's already a winner at 1 1/8 miles, someything not very many 3yo's can say right now. Definitely one to follow.
Comments
Regarding Danger to Society, i didn't watch the race, but judging by the charts the two races were similar, with almost identical final times of 1:51.19 and 1:51.16. I would say that Free Country probably ran the better of the two races, based on the fact that he went a bit faster early and he didn't have much running room. He also showed a good bit of courage and professionalism for a young horse. Also keep in mind that Danger to Society had a foundation advantage heading into their respective races, with his maiden win coming at a mile as opposed to Free Country's six furlong win. Impossible to say with any certainty at this point, but i feel confident that Free Country is the better of the two.
I do like The Pamplemousse quite a bit, I think he has a lot of potential. He was even flattered a bit recently when Mayor Marv came back to run another strong second around two turns.
I just looked at the entries per your suggestion and yes, I think he'll stretch out fine. I actually have him in my Virtual Stable, but I hadn't received a notification yet. I won't have any PP's until Thursday (the race is Friday, not Saturday).
Saturday. I'll get PP's on Friday.
FB