Aqueduct Inner Track Mid-january Update
Trotman
Senior Member
Aqueduct's holiday-time winter break is a distant thing of the past and racing continues along in full swing on The Big A's inner track in what has been a highly-bettable meet so far. For some, Aqueduct inner track racing is just one long cold winter of racing that becomes monotonous day after day after day, however, the reality of the situation could not be farther from the truth. The inner track meet is constantly changing and evolving throughout the winter as jockeys and trainers go from hot-to-cold and from cold-to-hot, and as track and running style biases consistently affect the racing and the results.
Aqueduct's inner track is renowned as a speed favoring and inside favoring racetrack which is susceptible to trends and biases, and this current meet has been no exception. Several racing days since the start of the inner track meet since Dec. 3 have shown at least some form of track bias, either in terms of running styles or running paths. While the bias has subsided at times, it is always a threat to return at any time, especially in transitional weather or when the track is drying out. This time of year on the inner track is the prime time for New York handicappers to capitalize on the track biases that have existed at Aqueduct over the course of the past month and a half, so always make yourself aware of what biases may have affected what days when reading the past performances of the horses when they come back to run in their next races.
Horseplayers shouldn't underestimate the value in following the track's biases at Aqueduct, even if they don't believe in track biases as a general rule at other times of the year. Once you realize how important track biases are on the inner track and become able to identify when they were in play and exactly what they were, you then will be able to apply what you know to the upcoming races and reap the benefits of the information you have at your disposal.
Aqueduct Inner Track Biases
Jan. 11 - Anti-speed bias (perhaps slow rail too) on "good" track
Jan. 7 - Sloppy track strongly favored speed
Jan. 4 - Helped to be close up
Jan. 3 - Inside was best part of the track
Dec. 31 - Gold rail; big faves won wire-to-wire, longshots closed from far back on rail
Dec. 28 - Outside closers/stalkers bias; speed bad, winners rallied wide all day
Dec. 27 - Speed and close-up horses won all 6 sprints, closers won all 3 routes
Dec. 14 - Dead rail, closers did much better than usual
Dec. 13 - Outside bias, closers did better than usual
Dec. 12 - Needed to be close to the pace
Dec. 10 - Close-up horses did well in sprints, closers did well in routes
Dec. 5 - Speed and close up horses did best
Dec. 3 - Speed bias, pace horses had the edge
Throughout the early part of the inner track meet, the inner track seemed to be at the mercy of its usual biases that favored speed horses and other horses racing close up to the pace. This all changed, however, for the final two days of racing before Aqueduct's winter break from Dec. 15-25 when the meet's first outside bias occurred - especially on Sunday, Dec. 14 when the rail was dead and rally-wide closers ruled the day.
Things have been far less predictable since racing returned at Aqueduct on Dec. 26, with many biases prevailing in the weeks of racing since then, including, most notably, several reverse bias days when the rail and speed were disadvantages and closers rallying on the outside held the edge. And so, from the chart of Aqueduct track biases listed above, we can conclude that closers who never closed on speed biased days, and speed horses who tired on anti-speed biased days, could all be given valid excuses for their recent losses. So too, should closers who somehow managed to close against the speed biases and front runners who won on the bad speed days be upgraded by handicappers in their next races.
On the reverse side of the same token, speed horses who benefited from speed biased tracks en route to wire-to-wire victories should be downgraded for their subsequent starts, especially when the speed figures they earned for the front-running efforts on those days seems out of whack with what those horses are usually capable of. This is a reliable indication that the speed favoring track conditions carried those horses to their biases-aided victories. Based on the same axiom, handicappers can also go ahead and downgrade closers who took advantage of anti-speed biased tracks or dead rails en route to victory in their most recent starts. The closers who caught the right bias on the right day are unlikely to get so lucky twice in a row.
Remember to always ask yourself if a good horse's good recent past performances were really that good, or if a losing horse's bad recent past performances were really that bad. Chances are, the track bias information you have at your disposal could be your key to answering those tough questions.
Winning post positions
Aside from being known as a speed-favoring track, the Aqueduct inner track is also known as a track that strongly favors inside posts, especially in two-turn route races. However, this surprisingly has NOT been the case at this year's inner track meet.
Traditionally, what we'd expect to see on the inner track is the three inside post positions 1-3 all winning at high win percentages, with the rest of the post positions 4 and outward to win with decreasing frequencies the farther out you go. This season, however, the numbers have been relatively weak in sprints for posts 1 and 2, with those two gates winning at only 8% and 9%, respectively. Instead, it has been the middle part of the gate that has yielded the plumb winning percentages so far in inner track sprints, with posts 6-8 winning at the unexpected win percentages of 14%, 15%, and 14%. A bunch of horses have also won from post 11 (4-for-25, 16%).
The inside posts are doing a bit better in routes, as you'd expect, however, the difference between the inside gates and the middle and outside gates has not been as much as you'd expect.
In Aqueduct inner track routes from Dec. 3 through Jan. 12, the inside three posts 1-3 have all won at between 10% and 11%. This means that for the first time in a long time, the inside posts 1-3 have not been the best posts so far on the inner track in routes. The best route post positions through the first part of the inner track meet have been middle posts 4-9, with those gates winning at anywhere between 11% and 15%.
Here is a look at the unexpected post position stats for routes so far.
Aqueduct winning posts, inner track routes 12/3 - 1/12
Post Wins-Starts Win%
1 10-92 11%
2 9-92 10%
3 10-92 11%
4 13-92 14%
5 10-92 11%
6 11-90 12%
7 9-82 11%
8 10-69 14%
9 7-46 15%
10 2-31 6%
11 1-2 50%
12 0-0 0%
Just by looking at these stats, there doesn't appear to be anything too far out of whack, except when you start to consider that the inner track usually yields win percentages in excess of 15% for all three of the inside posts on an annual basis. These numbers are a strong indication that the inside definitely has not been the advantage is usually is so far this meet on the inner track.
Hot and Cold Jockeys and Trainers
While Gary Contessa has assumed his usual spot atop the trainer standings on the Aqueduct inner track, he is doing it strictly due to numbers advantages with more than twice as many starters at the meet as the next trainer and four times the number of starters at the meet as most of the other guys in the top 10. Contessa has been winning at a very low percentage and producing abysmally low return on investment in spite of the fact that he leads trainers in wins.
Another inner track stalwart, Bruce Levine, has also not been a particularly good bet at this current meet. He's won 8 races, but he's at "only" 13% and not where you'd expect him to be at second-place in the standings.
Another top trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, has certainly been keeping up his end of the bargain in terms of winners (9) and win percentage (28%). However, it should be noted that all of his starters have been getting slammed at the mutuel windows, so McLaughlin supporters have consistently had to settle for terribly short prices, no matter if the horse has a good chance or not.
Some trainers that were hot earlier in the meet have cooled off considerably in recent weeks. This group includes Scott Lake, is still having a fine meet statistically but has not been winning as much as he did a month ago.
Many trainers that horseplayers would not usually consider in their handicapping have been performing much better than expected at the Aqueduct inner-track meet. Del Carroll, lately not much more than an afterthought on this circuit, won with 6 of his first 17 starters for a 35% win percentage. Usual toss outs such as John Campo and Jeff Odintz have also been extremely live and staying that way. Campo's 11% wins has lifted him into the "bettable" category, and Odintz's 3-for-record also indicates he's been live.
The list of hottest trainers at the meet starts first with Steve Asmussen, who has been deadly with his limited Aqueduct string this winter, hitting 10-for-26 for 38%. Tom Albertani, who suffered through a dreadful fall, has heated up here lately. His horses have not run through their conditions lately, either, so more wins should be on the way for him and his live Darley runners. Also, don't overlook Scott Volk. He's only had a limited amount of Aqueduct starters so far at this meet, but he was absolutely on fire at the Meadowlands and has quietly continued to click at a high percentage with an inner track record of 8-2-2-1 at decent prices.
Two other trainers to make note of are David Jacobson and Bruce Brown. Jacobson continues his bizarre claiming behavior and is doing quite well with huge drop downs, and with returnees from layoffs - even when those horses were recent Jacobson claims that the barn figures to lose money on if the horses get claimed away on the drop for a big loss for the owners. Bruce Brown, meanwhile, is winning at 16% and is particularly dangerous first off the claim and when he employs his favorite jockeys, which can always be recognized from the jockey/trainer stats listed in the Daily racing Form pp's.
In the jock's room, the leading man, as expected is Ramon Dominguez, who is tops both with winners (28) and with win percentage (20%). Besides him and second banana Rajiv Maragh, other riders to note include Chuckie Lopez, who has been consistently dangerous all throughout this meet while winning at a better than expected percentage (15-for-83, 18%). As usual, Lopez has been great in sprints and with front running horses. These are also the sorts of runners that Maragh does best with.
There's a big out-of-town riding contingent at Aqueduct this winter, and some of the new faces have really begun to get a good toehold here. Rosie Napravnik, who got off to a very slow start at Aqueduct in December, has really turned things around sharply in January and had won 8-of-61 starts as of Jan. 12 for 13% winners. That percentage would be much higher if you just considered January, and she figures to continue winning a lot of races if she continues to get the kinds of live mounts she's been seeing more and more of from trainers like Steve Klesaris, Mike Hushion, and Bruce Brown.
Besides Napravnik, other out-of-town pleasant surprises have been Eddie Castro, who is riding well, getting good mounts, and winning at a good percentage despite not being a known commodity on this circuit except for the few New York horseplayers who also follow the Jersey circuit. Sheldon Russell, who had been leading rider at Laurel before relocated to Aqueduct for the winter, has been doing a fine job as the premier bug at trhe Big A this winter. Finally, little known Nazario Alvarado has really proven he can ride in limited opportunities at this meet, usually with Finger Lakes based horses and trainers.
Aqueduct's inner track is renowned as a speed favoring and inside favoring racetrack which is susceptible to trends and biases, and this current meet has been no exception. Several racing days since the start of the inner track meet since Dec. 3 have shown at least some form of track bias, either in terms of running styles or running paths. While the bias has subsided at times, it is always a threat to return at any time, especially in transitional weather or when the track is drying out. This time of year on the inner track is the prime time for New York handicappers to capitalize on the track biases that have existed at Aqueduct over the course of the past month and a half, so always make yourself aware of what biases may have affected what days when reading the past performances of the horses when they come back to run in their next races.
Horseplayers shouldn't underestimate the value in following the track's biases at Aqueduct, even if they don't believe in track biases as a general rule at other times of the year. Once you realize how important track biases are on the inner track and become able to identify when they were in play and exactly what they were, you then will be able to apply what you know to the upcoming races and reap the benefits of the information you have at your disposal.
Aqueduct Inner Track Biases
Jan. 11 - Anti-speed bias (perhaps slow rail too) on "good" track
Jan. 7 - Sloppy track strongly favored speed
Jan. 4 - Helped to be close up
Jan. 3 - Inside was best part of the track
Dec. 31 - Gold rail; big faves won wire-to-wire, longshots closed from far back on rail
Dec. 28 - Outside closers/stalkers bias; speed bad, winners rallied wide all day
Dec. 27 - Speed and close-up horses won all 6 sprints, closers won all 3 routes
Dec. 14 - Dead rail, closers did much better than usual
Dec. 13 - Outside bias, closers did better than usual
Dec. 12 - Needed to be close to the pace
Dec. 10 - Close-up horses did well in sprints, closers did well in routes
Dec. 5 - Speed and close up horses did best
Dec. 3 - Speed bias, pace horses had the edge
Throughout the early part of the inner track meet, the inner track seemed to be at the mercy of its usual biases that favored speed horses and other horses racing close up to the pace. This all changed, however, for the final two days of racing before Aqueduct's winter break from Dec. 15-25 when the meet's first outside bias occurred - especially on Sunday, Dec. 14 when the rail was dead and rally-wide closers ruled the day.
Things have been far less predictable since racing returned at Aqueduct on Dec. 26, with many biases prevailing in the weeks of racing since then, including, most notably, several reverse bias days when the rail and speed were disadvantages and closers rallying on the outside held the edge. And so, from the chart of Aqueduct track biases listed above, we can conclude that closers who never closed on speed biased days, and speed horses who tired on anti-speed biased days, could all be given valid excuses for their recent losses. So too, should closers who somehow managed to close against the speed biases and front runners who won on the bad speed days be upgraded by handicappers in their next races.
On the reverse side of the same token, speed horses who benefited from speed biased tracks en route to wire-to-wire victories should be downgraded for their subsequent starts, especially when the speed figures they earned for the front-running efforts on those days seems out of whack with what those horses are usually capable of. This is a reliable indication that the speed favoring track conditions carried those horses to their biases-aided victories. Based on the same axiom, handicappers can also go ahead and downgrade closers who took advantage of anti-speed biased tracks or dead rails en route to victory in their most recent starts. The closers who caught the right bias on the right day are unlikely to get so lucky twice in a row.
Remember to always ask yourself if a good horse's good recent past performances were really that good, or if a losing horse's bad recent past performances were really that bad. Chances are, the track bias information you have at your disposal could be your key to answering those tough questions.
Winning post positions
Aside from being known as a speed-favoring track, the Aqueduct inner track is also known as a track that strongly favors inside posts, especially in two-turn route races. However, this surprisingly has NOT been the case at this year's inner track meet.
Traditionally, what we'd expect to see on the inner track is the three inside post positions 1-3 all winning at high win percentages, with the rest of the post positions 4 and outward to win with decreasing frequencies the farther out you go. This season, however, the numbers have been relatively weak in sprints for posts 1 and 2, with those two gates winning at only 8% and 9%, respectively. Instead, it has been the middle part of the gate that has yielded the plumb winning percentages so far in inner track sprints, with posts 6-8 winning at the unexpected win percentages of 14%, 15%, and 14%. A bunch of horses have also won from post 11 (4-for-25, 16%).
The inside posts are doing a bit better in routes, as you'd expect, however, the difference between the inside gates and the middle and outside gates has not been as much as you'd expect.
In Aqueduct inner track routes from Dec. 3 through Jan. 12, the inside three posts 1-3 have all won at between 10% and 11%. This means that for the first time in a long time, the inside posts 1-3 have not been the best posts so far on the inner track in routes. The best route post positions through the first part of the inner track meet have been middle posts 4-9, with those gates winning at anywhere between 11% and 15%.
Here is a look at the unexpected post position stats for routes so far.
Aqueduct winning posts, inner track routes 12/3 - 1/12
Post Wins-Starts Win%
1 10-92 11%
2 9-92 10%
3 10-92 11%
4 13-92 14%
5 10-92 11%
6 11-90 12%
7 9-82 11%
8 10-69 14%
9 7-46 15%
10 2-31 6%
11 1-2 50%
12 0-0 0%
Just by looking at these stats, there doesn't appear to be anything too far out of whack, except when you start to consider that the inner track usually yields win percentages in excess of 15% for all three of the inside posts on an annual basis. These numbers are a strong indication that the inside definitely has not been the advantage is usually is so far this meet on the inner track.
Hot and Cold Jockeys and Trainers
While Gary Contessa has assumed his usual spot atop the trainer standings on the Aqueduct inner track, he is doing it strictly due to numbers advantages with more than twice as many starters at the meet as the next trainer and four times the number of starters at the meet as most of the other guys in the top 10. Contessa has been winning at a very low percentage and producing abysmally low return on investment in spite of the fact that he leads trainers in wins.
Another inner track stalwart, Bruce Levine, has also not been a particularly good bet at this current meet. He's won 8 races, but he's at "only" 13% and not where you'd expect him to be at second-place in the standings.
Another top trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, has certainly been keeping up his end of the bargain in terms of winners (9) and win percentage (28%). However, it should be noted that all of his starters have been getting slammed at the mutuel windows, so McLaughlin supporters have consistently had to settle for terribly short prices, no matter if the horse has a good chance or not.
Some trainers that were hot earlier in the meet have cooled off considerably in recent weeks. This group includes Scott Lake, is still having a fine meet statistically but has not been winning as much as he did a month ago.
Many trainers that horseplayers would not usually consider in their handicapping have been performing much better than expected at the Aqueduct inner-track meet. Del Carroll, lately not much more than an afterthought on this circuit, won with 6 of his first 17 starters for a 35% win percentage. Usual toss outs such as John Campo and Jeff Odintz have also been extremely live and staying that way. Campo's 11% wins has lifted him into the "bettable" category, and Odintz's 3-for-record also indicates he's been live.
The list of hottest trainers at the meet starts first with Steve Asmussen, who has been deadly with his limited Aqueduct string this winter, hitting 10-for-26 for 38%. Tom Albertani, who suffered through a dreadful fall, has heated up here lately. His horses have not run through their conditions lately, either, so more wins should be on the way for him and his live Darley runners. Also, don't overlook Scott Volk. He's only had a limited amount of Aqueduct starters so far at this meet, but he was absolutely on fire at the Meadowlands and has quietly continued to click at a high percentage with an inner track record of 8-2-2-1 at decent prices.
Two other trainers to make note of are David Jacobson and Bruce Brown. Jacobson continues his bizarre claiming behavior and is doing quite well with huge drop downs, and with returnees from layoffs - even when those horses were recent Jacobson claims that the barn figures to lose money on if the horses get claimed away on the drop for a big loss for the owners. Bruce Brown, meanwhile, is winning at 16% and is particularly dangerous first off the claim and when he employs his favorite jockeys, which can always be recognized from the jockey/trainer stats listed in the Daily racing Form pp's.
In the jock's room, the leading man, as expected is Ramon Dominguez, who is tops both with winners (28) and with win percentage (20%). Besides him and second banana Rajiv Maragh, other riders to note include Chuckie Lopez, who has been consistently dangerous all throughout this meet while winning at a better than expected percentage (15-for-83, 18%). As usual, Lopez has been great in sprints and with front running horses. These are also the sorts of runners that Maragh does best with.
There's a big out-of-town riding contingent at Aqueduct this winter, and some of the new faces have really begun to get a good toehold here. Rosie Napravnik, who got off to a very slow start at Aqueduct in December, has really turned things around sharply in January and had won 8-of-61 starts as of Jan. 12 for 13% winners. That percentage would be much higher if you just considered January, and she figures to continue winning a lot of races if she continues to get the kinds of live mounts she's been seeing more and more of from trainers like Steve Klesaris, Mike Hushion, and Bruce Brown.
Besides Napravnik, other out-of-town pleasant surprises have been Eddie Castro, who is riding well, getting good mounts, and winning at a good percentage despite not being a known commodity on this circuit except for the few New York horseplayers who also follow the Jersey circuit. Sheldon Russell, who had been leading rider at Laurel before relocated to Aqueduct for the winter, has been doing a fine job as the premier bug at trhe Big A this winter. Finally, little known Nazario Alvarado has really proven he can ride in limited opportunities at this meet, usually with Finger Lakes based horses and trainers.