MLK Day selections
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Santa Anita - Race 1
#4 Wharf Cat (4/1 ml)
Returnee from the low-percentage Marlow barn came back from over year's layoff and set the pace in a strong maiden race for older horses, which included our play King of California and the very well-bet Gaines trainee Temple City. Wharf Cat set straight out for the lead and carved out very solid fractions, much faster than the pace set by multiple stakes-winners Indyanne and Indian Blessing in the Grade 1 La Brea Stakes later on the card. Despite that, Wharf Cat held on quite well, getting passed right around the 6-furlong mark. Today, he shortens up in distance to that same 6-furlong mark, and should be better-conditioned this time around with the comeback race under his belt (as opposed to coming off a 15-month layoff). Good front-running rider David Flores stays aboard (and note that he's showing a huge flat-bet profit for Marlow, hard to do), and Wharf Cat catches a field where his only apparent pace foe (Figeac) is turning back off a couple of route races, and is also drawn to Wharf Cat's outside while having bore out on the first turn in each of his last two starts. So even if Figeac is battling with Wharf Cat early (which i doubt), he could bear out on the turn and leave Wharf Cat out there by himself. There's even a chance he could interfere with some of the other horses while he's at it. I suspect that Figeac will be far more responsive this time on the turnback to faster fractions (obviously he was fighting the rider's attempt to restrain him in the last couple of starts), but the possibility remains. In any case, Wharf Cat should out-foot these horses early and could prove very tough to catch with any improvement off his last start. Good value in this small field.
Santa Anita - Race 3
#3 Joy Division (5/1 ml)
Class-dropper for Becerra was stalking a very solid pace last time out, which was set by Trainspotting, who returned to just miss at the $40k level yesterday. Joy Division was running a clear second late in that contest until just getting passed late by Major Rock Star, who himself returned to win by open lengths last Wednesday. Additionally, Joy Division had dueled thoughout with Trainspotting three starts back (again over the Pro-Ride surface). He faces some other speed-types in here, but looks to be the quickest of the bunch, and could get clear out front at the short distance of 5.5 furlongs. Should be highly competitive at a square price.
Santa Anita - Race 6
#6 Be Realistic (7/2 ml)
This horse takes MUCH larger class-drop than it would appear on paper, dropping out of a first-level allowance race, but one which included the bona-fide stakes-types Rail Trip and Aggie Engineer. You may remember that Aggie Engineer returned to score a very sharp win for us a few days ago, and of course Rail Trip is one of the best sprinters in the entire country. Going farther back, in his previous two sprint races Be Realistic had posted back-to-back Beyers of 92 and 94 while just missing to the good horses Band of Thunder, Kapalua Bay, and Guns on the Table. That close second to Guns on the Table came over this surface in a 14-horse field on the Friday Breeders Cup undercard, btw. He now gets a 7-furlong distance that he figures to appreciate, and there are several speed-types entered here should provide a contested pace up front. Think this horse will be rolling from behind once they turn for home. I'm disappointed to see that he's been installed as the 7/2 ml favorite here, but his lower-tier connections and the lack of any recent wins should keep the price very healthy. I expect he'll go a good bit higher than his morning line here, and note that NONE of the Racing Form's handicappers are even picking him in their Top 3. Also note the jockey switch to Delgadillo, who is 1-for-2 with this trainer. Expecting a good run here.
HRT record:
50 for 173 (29%)
$428.90 mutuels ($8.58 avg)
#4 Wharf Cat (4/1 ml)
Returnee from the low-percentage Marlow barn came back from over year's layoff and set the pace in a strong maiden race for older horses, which included our play King of California and the very well-bet Gaines trainee Temple City. Wharf Cat set straight out for the lead and carved out very solid fractions, much faster than the pace set by multiple stakes-winners Indyanne and Indian Blessing in the Grade 1 La Brea Stakes later on the card. Despite that, Wharf Cat held on quite well, getting passed right around the 6-furlong mark. Today, he shortens up in distance to that same 6-furlong mark, and should be better-conditioned this time around with the comeback race under his belt (as opposed to coming off a 15-month layoff). Good front-running rider David Flores stays aboard (and note that he's showing a huge flat-bet profit for Marlow, hard to do), and Wharf Cat catches a field where his only apparent pace foe (Figeac) is turning back off a couple of route races, and is also drawn to Wharf Cat's outside while having bore out on the first turn in each of his last two starts. So even if Figeac is battling with Wharf Cat early (which i doubt), he could bear out on the turn and leave Wharf Cat out there by himself. There's even a chance he could interfere with some of the other horses while he's at it. I suspect that Figeac will be far more responsive this time on the turnback to faster fractions (obviously he was fighting the rider's attempt to restrain him in the last couple of starts), but the possibility remains. In any case, Wharf Cat should out-foot these horses early and could prove very tough to catch with any improvement off his last start. Good value in this small field.
Santa Anita - Race 3
#3 Joy Division (5/1 ml)
Class-dropper for Becerra was stalking a very solid pace last time out, which was set by Trainspotting, who returned to just miss at the $40k level yesterday. Joy Division was running a clear second late in that contest until just getting passed late by Major Rock Star, who himself returned to win by open lengths last Wednesday. Additionally, Joy Division had dueled thoughout with Trainspotting three starts back (again over the Pro-Ride surface). He faces some other speed-types in here, but looks to be the quickest of the bunch, and could get clear out front at the short distance of 5.5 furlongs. Should be highly competitive at a square price.
Santa Anita - Race 6
#6 Be Realistic (7/2 ml)
This horse takes MUCH larger class-drop than it would appear on paper, dropping out of a first-level allowance race, but one which included the bona-fide stakes-types Rail Trip and Aggie Engineer. You may remember that Aggie Engineer returned to score a very sharp win for us a few days ago, and of course Rail Trip is one of the best sprinters in the entire country. Going farther back, in his previous two sprint races Be Realistic had posted back-to-back Beyers of 92 and 94 while just missing to the good horses Band of Thunder, Kapalua Bay, and Guns on the Table. That close second to Guns on the Table came over this surface in a 14-horse field on the Friday Breeders Cup undercard, btw. He now gets a 7-furlong distance that he figures to appreciate, and there are several speed-types entered here should provide a contested pace up front. Think this horse will be rolling from behind once they turn for home. I'm disappointed to see that he's been installed as the 7/2 ml favorite here, but his lower-tier connections and the lack of any recent wins should keep the price very healthy. I expect he'll go a good bit higher than his morning line here, and note that NONE of the Racing Form's handicappers are even picking him in their Top 3. Also note the jockey switch to Delgadillo, who is 1-for-2 with this trainer. Expecting a good run here.
HRT record:
50 for 173 (29%)
$428.90 mutuels ($8.58 avg)
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