Future-book theory (Kentucky Derby)
DiscreetCat
Moderator
Just had a friend at a Strip hotel contact me last night regarding a horse in their future-book, and i'm forwarding a previous post of mine to him, so i thought it might make for good reading here as well. This is something i had posted a couple of weeks ago on Dave Tuley's excellent forum (Viewfromvegas.com), and it explains my thoughts on Derby futures in a general way. Obviously, every situation is unique when it comes to horses, but this is just what i've gathered from many years of observing the Derby Trail with an eye towards the Las Vegas Kentucky Derby futures:
Generally speaking, Derby futures are low-balled to such an extent that the only time you can find any real value is when places are either oblivious to a certain horse, or are slow to move a number (after results have dictated such a move). Fortunately, both of those things happen with some frequency.
The biggest problem with Derby futures is simply identifying the winner. The race is tremendously hard to handicap in most years, even on raceday. Unlike Breeders Cup contenders, Kentucky Derby contenders are forced to do something they've never done before, which is win a race at 1 1/4 miles. Throw in the 20-horse field and it starts getting very dicey, to say nothing of the injuries that plague Derby hopefuls every single year. For those reasons, i try not to get too heavily involved. It's fun to follow the Derby Trail, and at times you can scoop up some very attractive prices on legitimate contenders. But cashing a Derby future is extremely hard to do. You have to be very, very fortunate.
That's why it's so imperative to demand big prices on ANY horse you're considering at this stage (i.e. 3 months out). The guys in the Racing Form and/or the guys posting the odds in the racebooks would have you believe that several horses have a 20/1 chance of winning the Derby right now. That's laughable. First off, i couldn't even identify a favorite right now, and even if i could, he wouldn't deserve to be any lower than 50/1 at this point. There's just too much that can happen between now and the first Saturday in May. Horses can go off-form, they can be injured, they can fail to develop any further than they already have, they can demonstrate distance limitations, etc. They may not like the Churchill surface (these days, some may have never even run on dirt before), they may draw a very bad post, they may get swallowed up in the big Derby traffic jam, etc. Hell, it could even rain on Derby Day, resulting in an off-track. All this must be factored into the price you're willing to accept, in order for there to be any value.
So when you see horses like Quality Road and Point Encounter, who have one maiden sprint win to their credit and are being quoted in the 30/1 range at a time when people are still hung over from their New Year's Eve parties, you just have to laugh. Like i said, the Racing Form and the Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby Future Wager people do us no favors by legitimizing these kinds of prices through their "expert" linemakers. People see that stuff and take it as Gospel, and it prompts the Vegas racebooks to continue offering those kinds of prices. The whole thing is just ridiculous.
Generally speaking, Derby futures are low-balled to such an extent that the only time you can find any real value is when places are either oblivious to a certain horse, or are slow to move a number (after results have dictated such a move). Fortunately, both of those things happen with some frequency.
The biggest problem with Derby futures is simply identifying the winner. The race is tremendously hard to handicap in most years, even on raceday. Unlike Breeders Cup contenders, Kentucky Derby contenders are forced to do something they've never done before, which is win a race at 1 1/4 miles. Throw in the 20-horse field and it starts getting very dicey, to say nothing of the injuries that plague Derby hopefuls every single year. For those reasons, i try not to get too heavily involved. It's fun to follow the Derby Trail, and at times you can scoop up some very attractive prices on legitimate contenders. But cashing a Derby future is extremely hard to do. You have to be very, very fortunate.
That's why it's so imperative to demand big prices on ANY horse you're considering at this stage (i.e. 3 months out). The guys in the Racing Form and/or the guys posting the odds in the racebooks would have you believe that several horses have a 20/1 chance of winning the Derby right now. That's laughable. First off, i couldn't even identify a favorite right now, and even if i could, he wouldn't deserve to be any lower than 50/1 at this point. There's just too much that can happen between now and the first Saturday in May. Horses can go off-form, they can be injured, they can fail to develop any further than they already have, they can demonstrate distance limitations, etc. They may not like the Churchill surface (these days, some may have never even run on dirt before), they may draw a very bad post, they may get swallowed up in the big Derby traffic jam, etc. Hell, it could even rain on Derby Day, resulting in an off-track. All this must be factored into the price you're willing to accept, in order for there to be any value.
So when you see horses like Quality Road and Point Encounter, who have one maiden sprint win to their credit and are being quoted in the 30/1 range at a time when people are still hung over from their New Year's Eve parties, you just have to laugh. Like i said, the Racing Form and the Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby Future Wager people do us no favors by legitimizing these kinds of prices through their "expert" linemakers. People see that stuff and take it as Gospel, and it prompts the Vegas racebooks to continue offering those kinds of prices. The whole thing is just ridiculous.
Comments
These were a couple of extreme examples of horses being low-balled in the future books, but every year there are several horses that have their odds slashed way beyond reality, so it's not like they're an isolated case either.
Let's look at some of the other contenders who are priced way too low at this point, starting with Old Fashioned, who is widely recognized as the leading Derby prospect right now (currently listed in no higher than 25/1 around town). Here's a horse who already has a couple of wins around two turns, already has some graded earnings by virtue of his Remsen win, and is trained by a guy (Larry Jones) who has saddled the last two Derby runner-ups (Eight Belles and Hard Spun). So clearly, there are some things to like here. But it's worth noting his Remsen win came when he was loping along on a soft, uncontested lead. God Knows that won't be the case in the Derby. His prior two-turn win came @ Delaware Park i believe, so that doesn't prove much either. Also worth mentioning that the horse who ran second to Old Fashioned in the Remsen came back to lose an allowance race @ Gulfstream Park as the favorite. Can't really hold that against Old Fashioned, and it was a nice horse who won that allowance race (Free Country), but it doesn't exactly flatter Old Fashioned either. For his part, Old Fashioned has been idle since the Remsen (he's slated to make his 3yo debut in the Southwest Stakes @ Oaklawn), so who knows how well the horse has progressed over the last couple of months. Again, he hasn't even raced as a 3yo yet, hasn't faced any kind of real pressure or adversity, and he's listed at 25/1 (or less) to win an extremely tough race that's still 3 months away. He's one of the more likely prospects to MAKE the race right now, but even that is no lock, and winning it is an entirely different matter. Fair odds at this point are probably in the 60/1 range, and you can't even get half of that right now. Worth looking at again after the results of the Southwest are known, but assuming he wins it he'll no doubt be slashed again, and i'm not even sure the current 25/1 would be acceptable AFTER the race. It would depend how good he looked (assuming he wins, or at least runs well) , what kind of trip he had, and what his remaining schedule looks like (i.e. how many more times he'll run before the Derby). The latter part there is a large factor whern trying to assess the potential for injury, which is no small matter along the Derby Trail, as everyone knows.