Gulfstream Plays 2/27/09 with Analysis
justin13892002
Senior Member
Got some plays with full Analysis, and will show full analysis of 1 race, for every horse.
Race 1
10 Walkers Beach
This filly is making her 2nd career start. She ran 3rd and lost by 8 lengths last out, but is now shortening up to 6 1/2 Furlongs. That race was 2 weeks ago. Horse hasnt worked that race, so should be fresh for a good run. Adds Lasix for the first time. Was bet at this class very well 1st start. Looks to run right to the winners circle.
Race 2
8 Ethan The Monster
This 3 year old colt is coming out of a long turf race, in which the horse showed very little. This race is at 7 1/2 Furlongs, the horses only win was at 7 Furlongs. Is bred for this distance. Lezcano jumps on for Kathy O'Connell. The nice and easy workout over the Calder course was a nice freshener. 12/1 M/L is value. Can be there with no trouble.
Race 3
1 King's Fleet
Nice looking 4 year old colt has a decent pedigree. Horse is a definite sprinter. Shows early speed then normally dies at the top of the stretch, and although post position 1 is not doing well in these races, Kent D opted on once again, and will give this horse everything it has. I have learned in these maiden races, never to bet the horse that finished 2nd last out, and stays at the same class. They win a very low %, but this one, I believe is an exception.
Race 5
3 Golden Weekend
This was a tough race. I found 1,2 or 3 could win this one. I am going with Leparoux on Golden Weekend. Comes off some turf races, in which horse had some nice figures. It also seems though, that the horse ran very well at this distance back on dirt, in the New York Circuit. Trainers best statistic is 3rd off the layoff, which Golden Weekend is doing this time out. Also, the very fast 4 Furlong workout on February 23rd, 2nd fastest behind Disfunction, who finished 2nd behind eventual Kentucky Derby winner Fatal Bullet. It was a very good workout to come off of. Horse looks live.
FULL RACE ANALYSIS
Race 6
1 Mile Turf, MCL $30,000
1) Trust The Deputy
Horses 4th career start, only Turf race was at 1 1/16 Mile, and didn't do well at all. Not expecting a big run here. PASS
2) fortyninegeorgest
2nd Career start, 1st on Turf. That was a sprint, in which horse fell late, and was on dirt. Not well bred for turf, but Wesley Ward knows horses, maybe he knows something? Maybe a chance in back of exotics.
3) Grand Concorde
2nd Career Start, 1st was on Dirt, and showed absolutely nothing. May improve trying Turf, but trainer hasn't won, and Levya isnt the best jockey to have hop on. PASS
4) Senor Leche
Trying grass for the first time, after a good 1st dirt race. Trainer win % is low, and apprentice jockey hops on. Moves up in class. Watch horse next out, looks like Trainer is conditioning the horse over a long Turf race, against tougher, and will drop in class to a dirt sprint next out. Pass this time.
5) Mulherengo
Low % trainer switches to low percentage jockey, and moves from a sprint to a route. Turf pedigree is okay, and 3rd off the layoff. Horse is also picking up in distance which is good. Don't think horse has a shot of winning, but could very easily squeek in for the Trifecta or Superfecta.
6) Weekend Pass
Good Pedigree, 2nd Lifetime start. 1st race was a dirt sprint. Horse had a bad start in the 1st race, and never recovered. Prado jumps on for Plesa. This horse will be there late, just not sure on how will take to turf. Hoping the pedigree kicks in here.
7) Stage Stream
1st time starter for Clemente who is hitting with 12% 1st timers. Is very good Turf wise, hitting 22%. Joey Bravo rides here, and this combo is 2 for 2. In my eyes, 3-1 M/L is pitiful. Horse will not win this race!
8) Dubai Rambler
This is my horse. My selection at 5/1 M/L. Essence of Dubai is a hidden Turf pedigree. 1st race on Turf was excellent, and finished just 2 lengths back. Not too happy Rivera is on, but going strictly on pedigree here. Should be 8-1 or more possibly. A good bet!
9) The Silver Tune
Half brother to competitor Grand Concorde. Turf presence is okay, and hasnt shown much at longer distance. Jockey/Trainer % is very low. Have to PASS here.
10) Winner Jak
Bad Jockey/Trainer Win %, and horse is moving from dirt sprint to turf route. Although dropping in class, horse doesnt look like it can handle a long turf race. PASS
11) Wanted Fugitive
Only Route Turf Race was a decent one. Finished 14 lengths back, but showed some decent speed. Not a fan of the Jockey/Trainer but has shown some speed on Turf, so a play in exotics.
12) Bronx Bull
Has not shown in Route races. Now tries a route on Turf. Not a chance. PASS
SELECTION: 8-6-11-7
Good Luck
Race 1
10 Walkers Beach
This filly is making her 2nd career start. She ran 3rd and lost by 8 lengths last out, but is now shortening up to 6 1/2 Furlongs. That race was 2 weeks ago. Horse hasnt worked that race, so should be fresh for a good run. Adds Lasix for the first time. Was bet at this class very well 1st start. Looks to run right to the winners circle.
Race 2
8 Ethan The Monster
This 3 year old colt is coming out of a long turf race, in which the horse showed very little. This race is at 7 1/2 Furlongs, the horses only win was at 7 Furlongs. Is bred for this distance. Lezcano jumps on for Kathy O'Connell. The nice and easy workout over the Calder course was a nice freshener. 12/1 M/L is value. Can be there with no trouble.
Race 3
1 King's Fleet
Nice looking 4 year old colt has a decent pedigree. Horse is a definite sprinter. Shows early speed then normally dies at the top of the stretch, and although post position 1 is not doing well in these races, Kent D opted on once again, and will give this horse everything it has. I have learned in these maiden races, never to bet the horse that finished 2nd last out, and stays at the same class. They win a very low %, but this one, I believe is an exception.
Race 5
3 Golden Weekend
This was a tough race. I found 1,2 or 3 could win this one. I am going with Leparoux on Golden Weekend. Comes off some turf races, in which horse had some nice figures. It also seems though, that the horse ran very well at this distance back on dirt, in the New York Circuit. Trainers best statistic is 3rd off the layoff, which Golden Weekend is doing this time out. Also, the very fast 4 Furlong workout on February 23rd, 2nd fastest behind Disfunction, who finished 2nd behind eventual Kentucky Derby winner Fatal Bullet. It was a very good workout to come off of. Horse looks live.
FULL RACE ANALYSIS
Race 6
1 Mile Turf, MCL $30,000
1) Trust The Deputy
Horses 4th career start, only Turf race was at 1 1/16 Mile, and didn't do well at all. Not expecting a big run here. PASS
2) fortyninegeorgest
2nd Career start, 1st on Turf. That was a sprint, in which horse fell late, and was on dirt. Not well bred for turf, but Wesley Ward knows horses, maybe he knows something? Maybe a chance in back of exotics.
3) Grand Concorde
2nd Career Start, 1st was on Dirt, and showed absolutely nothing. May improve trying Turf, but trainer hasn't won, and Levya isnt the best jockey to have hop on. PASS
4) Senor Leche
Trying grass for the first time, after a good 1st dirt race. Trainer win % is low, and apprentice jockey hops on. Moves up in class. Watch horse next out, looks like Trainer is conditioning the horse over a long Turf race, against tougher, and will drop in class to a dirt sprint next out. Pass this time.
5) Mulherengo
Low % trainer switches to low percentage jockey, and moves from a sprint to a route. Turf pedigree is okay, and 3rd off the layoff. Horse is also picking up in distance which is good. Don't think horse has a shot of winning, but could very easily squeek in for the Trifecta or Superfecta.
6) Weekend Pass
Good Pedigree, 2nd Lifetime start. 1st race was a dirt sprint. Horse had a bad start in the 1st race, and never recovered. Prado jumps on for Plesa. This horse will be there late, just not sure on how will take to turf. Hoping the pedigree kicks in here.
7) Stage Stream
1st time starter for Clemente who is hitting with 12% 1st timers. Is very good Turf wise, hitting 22%. Joey Bravo rides here, and this combo is 2 for 2. In my eyes, 3-1 M/L is pitiful. Horse will not win this race!
8) Dubai Rambler
This is my horse. My selection at 5/1 M/L. Essence of Dubai is a hidden Turf pedigree. 1st race on Turf was excellent, and finished just 2 lengths back. Not too happy Rivera is on, but going strictly on pedigree here. Should be 8-1 or more possibly. A good bet!
9) The Silver Tune
Half brother to competitor Grand Concorde. Turf presence is okay, and hasnt shown much at longer distance. Jockey/Trainer % is very low. Have to PASS here.
10) Winner Jak
Bad Jockey/Trainer Win %, and horse is moving from dirt sprint to turf route. Although dropping in class, horse doesnt look like it can handle a long turf race. PASS
11) Wanted Fugitive
Only Route Turf Race was a decent one. Finished 14 lengths back, but showed some decent speed. Not a fan of the Jockey/Trainer but has shown some speed on Turf, so a play in exotics.
12) Bronx Bull
Has not shown in Route races. Now tries a route on Turf. Not a chance. PASS
SELECTION: 8-6-11-7
Good Luck