Derby Favorites Lack Triple Crown Foundation, interesting article
Trotman
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Derby Favorites Lack Triple Crown Foundation
by Ray Kerrison, New York Post
SUDDENLY, the Derby hunt is on. Emerging from winter hibernation, the season's 3-year-olds are on the move, coast to coast, pointing toward Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.
It's only March, but excitement is already in the air.
And no wonder. A posse of horses has burst from the pack the past couple of weeks to stamp themselves as prime Derby candidates, the kind that get the blood tingling.
Here's the short list: Dunkirk, Quality Road, The Pamplemousse, Theregoesjojo and Desert Party. Each horse has demonstrated real firepower in the preps, suggesting this year's Kentucky Derby could be one for the books.
Dunkirk knocked the socks off railbirds when he rolled to a big win in an allowance at Gulfstream Park, hinting at greater things to come.
Quality Road was just short of sensational winning the Fountain of Youth last Saturday, with Theregoesjojo flying behind him. The Pamplemousse certified his credentials with a runaway victory in the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita.
Desert Party romped in the Two Thousand Guineas in Dubai, to add to his easy win in the Sanford at Saratoga last summer.
They're all taking aim at Old Fashioned, the Derby favorite after winning the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn to maintain his unbeaten record.
Any of these horses could win the 135th Derby in two months. What is almost certain is that the winner won't be around long enough to embroider it.
All these jump-up contenders have one startling common denominator: no seasoning. They are poster horses for the blight of the modern thoroughbred - lightly raced horses with no foundation to survive the rigors of the Triple Crown.
Dunkirk is coming into the most grueling program of races in the world - the Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes - without so much as one race as a 2-year-old. Deep down, there cannot be any maturity there. His muscles, heart, lungs and limbs have had no chance to develop and harden, making him ill-equipped to cope with the terrors ahead.
Quality Road had just one start as a 2-year-old. If he gets through to the Belmont, he won't know what hit him. Theregoesjojo had two sprints as a 2-year-old. By this summer, it could be Byebyejojo.
The Pamplemousse, Desert Party and Old Fashioned each had three starts as juveniles. That's better but still suspect for the long haul.
In the past 15 years, six horses have won the Derby off thin juvenile campaigns like the horses above. Consider their fates:
Big Brown had one race as a 2-year-old. He folded like an accordion in the Belmont. Hoof injuries plagued him and he was banished before the fall.
Barbaro had just two races as a 2-year-old. He did not survive the Preakness.
Smarty Jones had two races as a 2-year-old. After winning the Derby and Preakness, he lost the Belmont and that was the end of him.
Fusaichi Pegasus had one race as a 2-year-old. After the Derby, he lost the Preakness, was scratched from the Belmont and the Jockey Club Gold Cup because of foot injuries, never lifted a foot in the Breeders' Classic as the 6-5 favorite, and was sent to stud.
Monarchos had only two races as a 2-year-old. After the Derby, he never won another race.
Grindstone had two races as a 2-year-old and barely made it to the Derby. He won it through the miracle of veterinary science but was never seen again.
The evidence seems incontrovertible: The modern breed cannot withstand the preparation needed to go the Triple distance.
There have been 11 Triple Crown winners. Only one, Seattle Slew, had three races as a 2-year-old. Compare the others: Whirlaway had 16 races as a 2-year-old; Count Fleet 15; Secretariat, Affirmed, Assault, Citation and Omaha each had nine; Gallant Fox seven; Sir Barton and War Admiral each six.
So, this year it's possible one of these impressive new horses will win the Derby off a skeletal training regimen. Just don't expect to see much of him after he's draped in roses
by Ray Kerrison, New York Post
SUDDENLY, the Derby hunt is on. Emerging from winter hibernation, the season's 3-year-olds are on the move, coast to coast, pointing toward Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.
It's only March, but excitement is already in the air.
And no wonder. A posse of horses has burst from the pack the past couple of weeks to stamp themselves as prime Derby candidates, the kind that get the blood tingling.
Here's the short list: Dunkirk, Quality Road, The Pamplemousse, Theregoesjojo and Desert Party. Each horse has demonstrated real firepower in the preps, suggesting this year's Kentucky Derby could be one for the books.
Dunkirk knocked the socks off railbirds when he rolled to a big win in an allowance at Gulfstream Park, hinting at greater things to come.
Quality Road was just short of sensational winning the Fountain of Youth last Saturday, with Theregoesjojo flying behind him. The Pamplemousse certified his credentials with a runaway victory in the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita.
Desert Party romped in the Two Thousand Guineas in Dubai, to add to his easy win in the Sanford at Saratoga last summer.
They're all taking aim at Old Fashioned, the Derby favorite after winning the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn to maintain his unbeaten record.
Any of these horses could win the 135th Derby in two months. What is almost certain is that the winner won't be around long enough to embroider it.
All these jump-up contenders have one startling common denominator: no seasoning. They are poster horses for the blight of the modern thoroughbred - lightly raced horses with no foundation to survive the rigors of the Triple Crown.
Dunkirk is coming into the most grueling program of races in the world - the Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes - without so much as one race as a 2-year-old. Deep down, there cannot be any maturity there. His muscles, heart, lungs and limbs have had no chance to develop and harden, making him ill-equipped to cope with the terrors ahead.
Quality Road had just one start as a 2-year-old. If he gets through to the Belmont, he won't know what hit him. Theregoesjojo had two sprints as a 2-year-old. By this summer, it could be Byebyejojo.
The Pamplemousse, Desert Party and Old Fashioned each had three starts as juveniles. That's better but still suspect for the long haul.
In the past 15 years, six horses have won the Derby off thin juvenile campaigns like the horses above. Consider their fates:
Big Brown had one race as a 2-year-old. He folded like an accordion in the Belmont. Hoof injuries plagued him and he was banished before the fall.
Barbaro had just two races as a 2-year-old. He did not survive the Preakness.
Smarty Jones had two races as a 2-year-old. After winning the Derby and Preakness, he lost the Belmont and that was the end of him.
Fusaichi Pegasus had one race as a 2-year-old. After the Derby, he lost the Preakness, was scratched from the Belmont and the Jockey Club Gold Cup because of foot injuries, never lifted a foot in the Breeders' Classic as the 6-5 favorite, and was sent to stud.
Monarchos had only two races as a 2-year-old. After the Derby, he never won another race.
Grindstone had two races as a 2-year-old and barely made it to the Derby. He won it through the miracle of veterinary science but was never seen again.
The evidence seems incontrovertible: The modern breed cannot withstand the preparation needed to go the Triple distance.
There have been 11 Triple Crown winners. Only one, Seattle Slew, had three races as a 2-year-old. Compare the others: Whirlaway had 16 races as a 2-year-old; Count Fleet 15; Secretariat, Affirmed, Assault, Citation and Omaha each had nine; Gallant Fox seven; Sir Barton and War Admiral each six.
So, this year it's possible one of these impressive new horses will win the Derby off a skeletal training regimen. Just don't expect to see much of him after he's draped in roses