Mining the facts
Trotman
Senior Member
Mining for facts
By Nick Kling The Record
Recently I received an email from a gentleman I will call 'Bill.' Bill had a concern about a Thoroughbred mare named Met a Miner, who was entered in the March 14 Conniver Stakes at Laurel Park.
The email, which came to my 'Trackfacts' television partner, Tom Amello, as well, outlined the following: 1) Met a Miner had been claimed January 22 by trainer Scott Lake, 2) Met a Miner, a six-year-old mare, had run a career best dirt Beyer speed figure of 66 in October of 2006 as a three-year-old, 3) under Lake's tutelage she had improved to a Beyer of 81 in her first start and a 94 in the second, winning the two races by a total of more than 17 lengths.
Bill's concern was this type of dramatic improvement for an older horses was so implausible as to strain credulity. He wanted Amello and I to comment on the Met a Miner's sudden leap forward and whether Laurel officials were doing anything. Bill said, "What are the stewards at Laurel doing allowing (Lake to) make a mockery of (racing) and insulting (our) intelligence at the same time?"
Amello's response to Bill was twofold. His initial comment was that Lake was a trainer who moves up horses, part of a phenomenon some call "supertrainer." He also recommended Bill contact oversight officials at Laurel, as well as the New York State Racing and Wagering Board.
Here is what I take from analyzing the lifetime past performances of Met a Miner. I don't recall ever seeing the mare race, so I can only go by what is on paper.
Met a Miner's record demonstrates a clear preference for two situations. The first is dirt racing at six furlongs. Her career history under those conditions is 14 starts, 5 wins, and 3 other in-the-money finishes. Her record at all other distances and surfaces is 25 starts, 0 wins, and 10 in-the-money finishes.
Second is a dramatic difference when she is in a race where she is either on the lead or very close to the pace. All of her wins and most of her in-the-money finishes have been earned in that manner. When she is trying to come from off the pace, she seldom runs well.
Does either of those situations explain the Beyer improvement under Lake? No, but there is a modicum of evidence to suggest it might be possible. Bill would undoubtedly want to know how that could be. Here is a scenario.
By running a 66 Beyer as a three-year-old, Met a Miner demonstrated she had the inherent talent, at that time, to do better. Many Thoroughbreds improve 20-30 points or more over time. However, this one didn't, at least not for two years and four months.
Lake aggressively spotted Met a Miner back in an allowance race, which drew only a field of five. She got loose on the lead in a race with a moderate pace, and won drawing off. Lake wheeled her back in 8 days and repeated the feat. Again the field was small, six this time, but the pace was fast. Horses can get brave when uncontested on the lead, and Met a Miner rang up the 94 Beyer which troubled Bill.
If Met a Miner had just run the race with an 81 Beyer, I doubt Bill would have been as upset. The 94 appears harder to explain.
Many critics of horsemen like Lake claim it is doubtful the new trainer can be so much more successful than the old. The old trainer, they say, knows how to feed his animals and keep them healthy, and should get similar results.
While logical on the surface, that notion isn't necessarily correct. Anyone who follows big-time sports knows that coaches are fired and hired all the time. Often, team personnel remains about the same, but the won-loss record improves dramatically.
2008's Miami Dolphins are one example. The team hired the proven Bill Parcells as executive vice president and new head coach Tony Sparano. They went from a single victory in 2007 to 11 last year. Or consider the New York Knicks, an embarrassment under Isiah Thomas and a playoff contender under Mike D'Antoni and Donnie Walsh.
Those new regimes showed they were more skillful than the old. The people they replaced had similar credentials, but just didn't get the job done. Why should it be any different training horses?
Anyone who has worked with livestock for an extended period of time learns something quickly. That is, some human beings have an insight into animals that most of us don't. The successful have an intuition which isn't apparent to the naked eye and can't readily be explained. But it exists nonetheless.
Let's make one thing perfectly clear. I have no admiration for Scott Lake. He is what he is, which is a trainer who wins a high percentage of his starts. Lake has had his share of medication positives, but I have no credible evidence he operates more or less honestly than the majority of horsemen with whom I'm familiar.
What I believe is the vast majority of horse races are won by the animal who is the best or luckiest that day. Does that mean an occasional race is won by a horse improperly or illegally medicated? Yes. Does it mean I believe Thoroughbred racing is any less honest than the NFL or Major League Baseball? No, it means the opposite. Horse racing is as honest as any other sport, pastime, or industry, where big money changes hands.
The answer is better testing for illegal substances and stronger penalties when violators get caught. Racing is moving in that direction, slowly.
By Nick Kling The Record
Recently I received an email from a gentleman I will call 'Bill.' Bill had a concern about a Thoroughbred mare named Met a Miner, who was entered in the March 14 Conniver Stakes at Laurel Park.
The email, which came to my 'Trackfacts' television partner, Tom Amello, as well, outlined the following: 1) Met a Miner had been claimed January 22 by trainer Scott Lake, 2) Met a Miner, a six-year-old mare, had run a career best dirt Beyer speed figure of 66 in October of 2006 as a three-year-old, 3) under Lake's tutelage she had improved to a Beyer of 81 in her first start and a 94 in the second, winning the two races by a total of more than 17 lengths.
Bill's concern was this type of dramatic improvement for an older horses was so implausible as to strain credulity. He wanted Amello and I to comment on the Met a Miner's sudden leap forward and whether Laurel officials were doing anything. Bill said, "What are the stewards at Laurel doing allowing (Lake to) make a mockery of (racing) and insulting (our) intelligence at the same time?"
Amello's response to Bill was twofold. His initial comment was that Lake was a trainer who moves up horses, part of a phenomenon some call "supertrainer." He also recommended Bill contact oversight officials at Laurel, as well as the New York State Racing and Wagering Board.
Here is what I take from analyzing the lifetime past performances of Met a Miner. I don't recall ever seeing the mare race, so I can only go by what is on paper.
Met a Miner's record demonstrates a clear preference for two situations. The first is dirt racing at six furlongs. Her career history under those conditions is 14 starts, 5 wins, and 3 other in-the-money finishes. Her record at all other distances and surfaces is 25 starts, 0 wins, and 10 in-the-money finishes.
Second is a dramatic difference when she is in a race where she is either on the lead or very close to the pace. All of her wins and most of her in-the-money finishes have been earned in that manner. When she is trying to come from off the pace, she seldom runs well.
Does either of those situations explain the Beyer improvement under Lake? No, but there is a modicum of evidence to suggest it might be possible. Bill would undoubtedly want to know how that could be. Here is a scenario.
By running a 66 Beyer as a three-year-old, Met a Miner demonstrated she had the inherent talent, at that time, to do better. Many Thoroughbreds improve 20-30 points or more over time. However, this one didn't, at least not for two years and four months.
Lake aggressively spotted Met a Miner back in an allowance race, which drew only a field of five. She got loose on the lead in a race with a moderate pace, and won drawing off. Lake wheeled her back in 8 days and repeated the feat. Again the field was small, six this time, but the pace was fast. Horses can get brave when uncontested on the lead, and Met a Miner rang up the 94 Beyer which troubled Bill.
If Met a Miner had just run the race with an 81 Beyer, I doubt Bill would have been as upset. The 94 appears harder to explain.
Many critics of horsemen like Lake claim it is doubtful the new trainer can be so much more successful than the old. The old trainer, they say, knows how to feed his animals and keep them healthy, and should get similar results.
While logical on the surface, that notion isn't necessarily correct. Anyone who follows big-time sports knows that coaches are fired and hired all the time. Often, team personnel remains about the same, but the won-loss record improves dramatically.
2008's Miami Dolphins are one example. The team hired the proven Bill Parcells as executive vice president and new head coach Tony Sparano. They went from a single victory in 2007 to 11 last year. Or consider the New York Knicks, an embarrassment under Isiah Thomas and a playoff contender under Mike D'Antoni and Donnie Walsh.
Those new regimes showed they were more skillful than the old. The people they replaced had similar credentials, but just didn't get the job done. Why should it be any different training horses?
Anyone who has worked with livestock for an extended period of time learns something quickly. That is, some human beings have an insight into animals that most of us don't. The successful have an intuition which isn't apparent to the naked eye and can't readily be explained. But it exists nonetheless.
Let's make one thing perfectly clear. I have no admiration for Scott Lake. He is what he is, which is a trainer who wins a high percentage of his starts. Lake has had his share of medication positives, but I have no credible evidence he operates more or less honestly than the majority of horsemen with whom I'm familiar.
What I believe is the vast majority of horse races are won by the animal who is the best or luckiest that day. Does that mean an occasional race is won by a horse improperly or illegally medicated? Yes. Does it mean I believe Thoroughbred racing is any less honest than the NFL or Major League Baseball? No, it means the opposite. Horse racing is as honest as any other sport, pastime, or industry, where big money changes hands.
The answer is better testing for illegal substances and stronger penalties when violators get caught. Racing is moving in that direction, slowly.
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