Florida Derby play from Discreet Picks
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Gulfstream - Race 10
#2 Quality Road (2/1 ml)
Impressive Fountain of Youth winner sat off blazing early fractions and yet was still pulling away at the end, finishing 4 lengths in front of Theregoesjojo (who in turn finished another 4 lengths ahead of everyone else). As such, Quality Road looks to hold a clear pace advantage here, particularly with the fractions figuring to be much slower here on the stretchout to two turns. I'm not concerned with potential pace foes Casey's on Call or the Pletcher "rabbit" Europe, as Quality Road proved last time that he can sit off the pace if need be. That also bodes well for his chances of getting the extra distance here, as looks capable of relaxing in a stalking position (again, particularly with the slower pace). Holds the class-edge on Dunkirk, and looks set to run another big one here. Btw, much has been made of the fact that Dunkirk needs to win this race in order to make the Derby, but Quality Road is currently on the bubble himself, and definitely needs some earnings as well. Plus the Florida Derby is a prestigious Grade 1 race in it's own right, so there's little doubt Quality Road will be cranked here. Short morning line of course, but obviously we can count on Dunkirk to pull a whole lot of money. Speaking of which, it would be wise not to forget about #6 Theregoesjojo. I picked him in the Fountain of Youth, and he did run very well that day, launching a strong rally from off the pace to go well clear for second. He's bred to route, he's been finishing well, and there's no reason that he shouldn't run well again. I can't pick him over Quality Road, but it appears he'll be overlooked (and undervalued) here, and he looks every bit as good as Dunkirk from where i'm sitting. Could make for a nice exacta partner.
HRT record:
53 for 189 (28%)
$457.40 mutuels ($8.64 avg)
#2 Quality Road (2/1 ml)
Impressive Fountain of Youth winner sat off blazing early fractions and yet was still pulling away at the end, finishing 4 lengths in front of Theregoesjojo (who in turn finished another 4 lengths ahead of everyone else). As such, Quality Road looks to hold a clear pace advantage here, particularly with the fractions figuring to be much slower here on the stretchout to two turns. I'm not concerned with potential pace foes Casey's on Call or the Pletcher "rabbit" Europe, as Quality Road proved last time that he can sit off the pace if need be. That also bodes well for his chances of getting the extra distance here, as looks capable of relaxing in a stalking position (again, particularly with the slower pace). Holds the class-edge on Dunkirk, and looks set to run another big one here. Btw, much has been made of the fact that Dunkirk needs to win this race in order to make the Derby, but Quality Road is currently on the bubble himself, and definitely needs some earnings as well. Plus the Florida Derby is a prestigious Grade 1 race in it's own right, so there's little doubt Quality Road will be cranked here. Short morning line of course, but obviously we can count on Dunkirk to pull a whole lot of money. Speaking of which, it would be wise not to forget about #6 Theregoesjojo. I picked him in the Fountain of Youth, and he did run very well that day, launching a strong rally from off the pace to go well clear for second. He's bred to route, he's been finishing well, and there's no reason that he shouldn't run well again. I can't pick him over Quality Road, but it appears he'll be overlooked (and undervalued) here, and he looks every bit as good as Dunkirk from where i'm sitting. Could make for a nice exacta partner.
HRT record:
53 for 189 (28%)
$457.40 mutuels ($8.64 avg)
Comments
I do think it's possible that the most value will be found on Theregoesjojo, and I said as much. I think Quality Road is the most likely winner however, and if he goes off as second-choice, that's good enough for me. I'm expecting a big run today.
Btw, did you guys notice the late odds-drop? According to the ESPN replay, Quality Road was 8/5 when he passed the half-mile pole. As he approached the 6-furlong mark, he suddenly dropped from 8/5 down to 6/5 (moving right past 3/2 and 7/5 in the process). And the win pool for the Florida Derby isn't exactly small.
"It rained last week"
Yeah, that must be it.......LOL
Wynn