Best value on Derby Day?

DiscreetCat

I wasn't particularly impressed by him today (and i wasn't last time, either), but from where i'm sitting i think the Derby Day value will be on Pioneerof the Nile. As Gary Stevens pointed out immediately after the race (and Gomez echoed those same sentiments in his post-race interview), POTN performs much better when he can settle back off the pace and then make a run. The pace has been quite slow in his last couple of races, and that doesn't figure to be the case on Derby Day. Gomez also mentioned (and i agree) that POTN seems to want to pull himself up once he makes the lead, and i think perhaps that's been the problem in his last couple of races. He does appear to be rather keen lately, and that could present a problem, but then again it might be related to the slow pace in his last couple of starts, and therefore not be an issue in the Derby. Keep in mind that POTN is still 2-for-2 over IWR, and then think about their their projected raceday odds. POTN might be 2-3 times the price of IWR in the Derby. While it's true that IWR looks improved since leaving California, has POTN gotten worse? That's highly doubtful. Also note that his Beyer figures are quite low in relation to the other prime contenders, and it doesn't appear he'll be getting a large Beyer for his SA Derby win either. Don't get me wrong, i'm not ranking POTN on top (i currently lean to Quality Road), but i don't rank him too far behind either. I think he's a very logical contender that will be very much overlooked by the betting public. Suffice to say i'll have some interest in his KDFW odds tomorrow. Last i saw he was 11/1, and he could be climbing. Not many people on his bandwagon right now.

hue21998

POTN did look almost extremely uncomfortable in the slow pace. I didnt view 2 races ago. I had picked chocolate candy and thought he made his move at the right time but POTN did have plenty in the tank to keep CC at bay.

cinfront

I think Chocolate Candy and Friesan Fire will be the best value bets inthe Derby. Chocolate Candy looked super inthe S.A. Derby even with that slow pace. He's ready. Friesan fire beat Papa Clem by 7 lenths last time out when Pioneer Of The Nile only got him by a 1/2. I will be looking at Charitable Man out of Lemon Drop Kid real hard inthe Blue Grass. He beat Friesan Fire as a 2yrs. back in Sept. @ Belmont. DC you and Miss D. are on the same page with Quality Road. J. V. may finally have his 1st Derby win.

Draynay

cinfront wrote: »

I think Chocolate Candy and Friesan Fire will be the best value bets inthe Derby. Chocolate Candy looked super inthe S.A. Derby even with that slow pace. He's ready. Friesan fire beat Papa Clem by 7 lenths last time out when Pioneer Of The Nile only got him by a 1/2. I will be looking at Charitable Man out of Lemon Drop Kid real hard inthe Blue Grass. He beat Friesan Fire as a 2yrs. back in Sept. @ Belmont. DC you and Miss D. are on the same page with Quality Road. J. V. may finally have his 1st Derby win.

There is only value in a ticket if its a winner. I often wonder about "value" players who rarely if ever cash a ticket.:cool2:

Pioneer of the Nile again beat a weak group of California horses and his time was slow....very slow....:smoking:

Unknown

i said it 10 times on here in the past 30 days........wheel the oaks two top fillies into the 20 derby horses and you will make a score........this derby is wide open...shades of giacamo loom boldly in my mind........last years oaks/derby double with both chalks winning returned $38.00..........and that was with big brown at 2/1.......easy double as i had it 50 times.....

wire2wire

I think CHOCOLATE CANDY is back in the picture...w2w

Draynay

GAMBLER911 wrote: »

i said it 10 times on here in the past 30 days........wheel the oaks two top fillies into the 20 derby horses and you will make a score........this derby is wide open...shades of giacamo loom boldly in my mind........last years oaks/derby double with both chalks winning returned $38.00..........and that was with big brown at 2/1.......easy double as i had it 50 times.....

You had Big Brown last year .... but this year you think its wide open? Quality Road beats This Ones For Phil and Captain Candyman Can and they both come right back and win GRADED STAKES races and Quality Road wins back to back GRADED STAKES races posting Beyers over 110 and sets a track record and he is not your horse? Really ?

hue21998

I havnt made a choice yet but you can gurantee that churchill down will be far from as juiced up as gulfstream was for speed

Draynay

hue21998 wrote: »

I havnt made a choice yet but you can gurantee that churchill down will be far from as juiced up as gulfstream was for speed

I have been going to Gulfstream Park since 1982 and I can tell you I have no idea what you mean by juiced up. The track was prepared for racing the same way on Saturday as it was on Thursday and Friday. Two very good stakes winning horses set back to back records while being pushed to perform their best.

It was great performances by those horses that set the record not the track. I don't care what they are running on you show me a horse that can run a 1:47 and I will show you a strong Derby contender. Quality Road is just a few lengths better than the rest.:yes:

Unknown

draynay....the track had been rock hard the entire meet as there was no rain this winter at all.prior to florida derby day that wednesday and thursday it rained.some and the track superintendent did doctor the track up,thats why the times were exceptional.........lets talk about the dutrow steroid juiced up this ones for phil...notice the bounce like a pig factor after beating my lucky man..capt. candyman total bounce winner yesterday in n.y....im not knocking quality road,but im not sold on him either.....i new big brown was my derby horse in his second career start taken off the turf last year when i saw desormeaux circle by the whole field,with the easiest of moves.i called my friend in saratoga 10 seconds after the race to tell him i just saw the derby winner....the public didnt get all over him till the win from the # 12 post in the florida derby....after that he just solidified his brilliance .......theres big money to be made on the oaks/derby doubles this year in my mind....now since stardom bound got beat and may not run in the oaks start looking for the best fillies,as your keys......i lived in ft.lauderdale for 10 years no calder/gulfstream and hialeah circuits since 1970.........

hue21998

well look back and see how many times 3 track records were set in a day. If the track wasnt juiced id hate to see when it is.

Draynay

GAMBLER911 wrote: »

draynay....the track had been rock hard the entire meet as there was no rain this winter at all.prior to florida derby day that wednesday and thursday it rained.some and the track superintendent did doctor the track up,thats why the times were exceptional.........lets talk about the dutrow steroid juiced up this ones for phil...notice the bounce like a pig factor after beating my lucky man..capt. candyman total bounce winner yesterday in n.y....im not knocking quality road,but im not sold on him either.....i new big brown was my derby horse in his second career start taken off the turf last year when i saw desormeaux circle by the whole field,with the easiest of moves.i called my friend in saratoga 10 seconds after the race to tell him i just saw the derby winner....the public didnt get all over him till the win from the # 12 post in the florida derby....after that he just solidified his brilliance .......theres big money to be made on the oaks/derby doubles this year in my mind....now since stardom bound got beat and may not run in the oaks start looking for the best fillies,as your keys......i lived in ft.lauderdale for 10 years no calder/gulfstream and hialeah circuits since 1970.........

I think you and I are going to see the day... maybe next year when Hialeah is opened again... I hope so I had more fun there than you can imagine.

Draynay

hue21998 wrote: »

well look back and see how many times 3 track records were set in a day. If the track wasnt juiced id hate to see when it is.

You saw two great horses set records back to back because of THEIR brilliant performances. They were pushed to top performances and came through with record efforts.

To credit the track takes away from everything we are trying to build in racing. We need stars in this game. Please credit the horses and stay away from saying the track was JUICED. It does our sport we love NO GOOD at all and does nothing to create a star.:idoit:

Unknown

Draynay............i Posted A Couple Weeks Ago On Here That Hialeah Owner John____________ Has Applied For Quarter Horse Racing For This Coming 2009/2010 Winter,which Might Be The Leed In To Get Thouroughbreds Back...{i Doubt It} They Ran Quarter Horses At Pompano In The Early Nineties It Was A Total Flop Attendances Were Like 200 A Night...john Brunetti Remembered His Last Name....i Use To Sit With The Biggest Loser In America At Hialeah "jimmy The Greek" And Pete Axethelm Both Degenerate Horse Players...i Used To Bust Jean Crugets Balls Everyday As Well As That 10 Time Loser Hammerin Hank Goldberg....im A Natural Ball Buster When I No Certain People Ae Full Of Bull..lol..

Draynay

Halsey Minor wants that track in Hialeah.... lets keep our fingers crossed and I will see you on opening day !!!
Great Jimmy the Greek story.... lol...